UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

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You're gonna be 10u deep on Sage? Not knocking it, just wondering

Put everything I could on it which amounted to 7u, but woulda gone 10 if I could! Gouti offers nothing if he's not coming forward, never attempted a counter, no TD nor sub threat, the guy transitioned from squash to MMA in his mid 20s. His only chance is a KO and he couldn't even get a clean KO over the chinniest guy on the roster in Holbrook. He's quite chinny himself and has poor defense.

Sage is a different fighter since joining TAM, this should be -400
 
Put everything I could on it which amounted to 7u, but woulda gone 10 if I could! Gouti offers nothing if he's not coming forward, never attempted a counter, no TD nor sub threat, the guy transitioned from squash to MMA in his mid 20s. His only chance is a KO and he couldn't even get a clean KO over the chinniest guy on the roster in Holbrook. He's quite chinny himself and has poor defense.

Sage is a different fighter since joining TAM, this should be -400

Agreed. I get why a lot of people are hesitant to trust Sage with their money but you really couldn’t ask for a better matchup for him here. I was expecting him to open at least -300. He opened -245 against Quinones and looked like he’s made big improvements in that fight. I went 4u at -195.
 
Put everything I could on it which amounted to 7u, but woulda gone 10 if I could! Gouti offers nothing if he's not coming forward, never attempted a counter, no TD nor sub threat, the guy transitioned from squash to MMA in his mid 20s. His only chance is a KO and he couldn't even get a clean KO over the chinniest guy on the roster in Holbrook. He's quite chinny himself and has poor defense.

Sage is a different fighter since joining TAM, this should be -400
Yeah I dont disagree w anything you said, 10u is a little steep for me for a non-elite fighter (i feel as though there is more "randomness" with non-elite guys, naturally). BOL man
 
brandon davis

-was teaching a MT class, when got the call (12 days short notice fight)
-no time off was back in training next day after ufc loss from last fight (2-3 weeks ago)
-says stats show he out struck kyle, so feels he won the fight
-discusses his hands down approach, but wanted kyle to come forward and fight
-matches up well against, says peterson comes forward, but he is not big enough
suggest he does not have crisp boxing. But he is good at pressuring.
-plans on throwing down on the smaller guy
-has no issue cutting weight
-trained with jason knight
-suggest his ji jitsu is good enough, cutting off the cage, wont allow guys to
run away.
-Says fight wont go 3 rounds, says has the wrestling, ji jitsu but not seen
since his striking is good.




Steven Peterson

-4-5 weeks notice for humberto bandenay, but 12 days notice for opponent change
in brandon davis
-excited to get into ufc, but its still a day job its still a fight and he is best at scrapping.
-smoother to cut to 145, was 153 earlier ( guessing 2 weeks ago)
-5 lfa guys, 3 ufc guys, trains with many great fighters-says damon jackson main
training partner, solid on the ground and lots of southpaws for striking.
-working with top level athletes always.
-says brandon davis called him out on twitter, would love to take him out(didnt know he
accepted fight short after)
-feels should have been in ufc, wants to go 4-0 and then top 10 guys

previous 3 week interview
-half fights at 145, but happy at 145 is a fw will fit in just fine
-contract came out fast within 2-3 days, coach kept him updated
-says he belongs in ufc, close fight with contender (felt he won)
-being with legacy, fa, xco orgs really pushed fights to get him into ufc
-shown he puts on a good show and wins 90% of time, or else a bloody war
-camp has 6 ufc guys, top level guys.




Geoff Neil

-takes turns for father duties, got lucky to sleep lately
-got into sports when young (football) then moved to mma
-transition was not hard to move from different sports
-is working as a server (assuming part time?)
-was happy to get the 2 wins before ufc contract, it was a surprise he got the contract too.
-plan to stay at 170 for now, when he fills in later on will move up
-good match up, says camcozzi is a solid fighter and is aggressive like himself.
-going well with weight cut but is hungry
-training with charles bird, has a solid team and good group of guys. Says all those guys
are booked for upcoming fights so motivation is high and so work training pace.
-feels r1 finish, says his opponent plans on pushing the pace.




Brian camozzi

-doing well, busy with training and all in vegas
-was able to finish off his other job to continue training more
-used ufc institue which he enjoyed (went for food)
-took time off fight since he has a regular job-sells insurnace
-says he was playing a chess match but couldnt push it more then wanted
is focusing more on it. says chad landed a liver shot so he wasnt too badly banged up
-he likes the fight, says neil is a boxer (but he trains with lefties at camp)
-was surprised he didnt get cut by ufc after his last loss (2 losses)
-worked with his brother since hes a leftie also, worked with factory x guys
-weight cuts fine, strict diet and tends to go well
-not worried about a 3rd loss or getting cut since it couldnt go as bad as first
2 fights (ko losses)




James Vick
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_Szl6l9iVw
-excited and ready for fight
-last fight went perfect, had a rough camp with several injuries but still won
and took no damage, had tinnitus in knees couldnt walk properly also hand injury.
So took some time to recover.
-not interested in evan dunham (ufc wanted the fight) but says hes old and dont
want the fight and 3-4 places below him. Also kevin lee and Chiesa both turned him
down for fights, cant wait to show text messages showing them hiding from him.
-happy with trinaldo, although ranked below him loves the fight.
-says trinaldo is tough, cant over look him. Wont half ass train against him.
has won 7-8 last fights so good track record, says trinaldo has gas tank and cardio
is suspect, says he needs a finish via ko. Says he has more volume striking and better
cardio, and more well rounded so expects a finish here.
-works with soutpaws, trains with peter pettis, trains with 2 time bjj world champs
all areas covered.
-never easy to get down to 155, working with george so will hit weight still.
-says trinaldo will have to get in range and he will take chances, if he tries
to wrestle will gas out more, says his knees are better in the clinch and
no one has held him down. Says he is a 195 light weight by fight night so
always stronger then other guys. Says trinaldo will swing wild or dirty box him,
but he will have upper hand and win.




Jared gordon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rm95VMzVRjM
-says he kept smashing hacran dias, happy ref let him do what he does best
-happy put a stamp on his last fight
-matches up well against against carlos, both are ji jitsu, happy to get back
up if taken down, better striking also.
-says carlos 2 year lay off, coming off steroids
-doesnt want to look past him though
-training at nick cantones- frankie edgar, eddie alvarez, lots of kickboxing
and boxing sparring (pro boxing) gets reaction and speed timing down well.
-has grappling coach and he is black belt bjj, drills grapplebox style with gnp
-155 is ok, but he can push it and do it is 172 atm but he does
hard sparring and doesnt get tired. Is on point and feeling better then last fight
-pressure pressure pressure, will break him, so happy to stand and trade, will be
back and forth but is the better stand up guy and plans on gnp finish.




Carlos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AICoOCRxHT4
-last fight since 2016, got issue with usada few mistakes with supplments
not his fault but its a learning experience. Gets tested regularly
and nothing to hide. He stays clear as he can be now.
-happy with last fight with OAM, put a lot of focus and training for that fight
-worked on striking for this camp and his wrestling is most improved.
a lot of training past 2 years, lucky he didnt get hurt and got lots of technical
knowledge from 2 years of training.
-good match up says hes jareds a strong wrestler, wants someone to push the pace
with him. Damon jackson, steven peterson trained with, happy to get the husle and work
in.
-weight cut is lining up well
-says fight might be a brawling fight, both will put on exciting fight says he
does not step back so fight will be throwing down to get win.
-with no injury wants another fight 2-3 months back in to get top 5-10 next year




Tim Williams
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVZqx1IOgew
-last training session
-injured elbow so had the lay off, was due to fight last october 2017 so recouped.
also a fight fell thru middle 2017, twice.
-was 5 weeks out but his weight was good so took this fight
-says is 31, but loves fighting and has 5-6 years more in this industry
-is a carpenter (safway), they let him take time off for fight, training alot
-matches up well against Oskar, says hes bjj black belt and good striking but
he is ready for fight anyone, had 36 fights total and done boxing/kickboxing
and bjj black belts but nothing on ufc level but they were still good.
-beat ex ufc/bellator guys which were going to ufc still
-worked with antonie burseman (black belt bjj, good back taking) basil, harvez
lots of amatuer and guys turning pro, so lots of guys.
-is 200 pounds, eating well but dieting well still
-goes gym 5 days a week @ 5am to do S&C drills, helps weight slide off
-says oskar is good on feet/ground but will take him out which ever way
but he will have to earn it.




Sarah moras
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU4W2SG3fhE
-says had ufc jitters last fight, missed getting on top with the take down attempt
but happy to get the sub win there, missed getting the bonus.
-got a new work out plan @ ufc institute so she dont get too big inbetween fights
-get looked after and pampered with info and support @ ufc institute
-likes technical training aspect of fights, S&C and diet is her issue but she enjoys it
-matches up well with lucie, been training on her striking and wants to showcase it.
working on getting her game more well rounded, all focus is on getting the bonus.
-husband is his main training partner, trains with maria (kickboxers/striker)
so improving her hands(similar size).
-Rory, others got big recent wins (from her gym and camp)
-its a struggle to cut weight, wants to move up, has trouble due to putting more muscle
mass on, says feels good and fast but weight cut sucks.
-wanted a knock out last fight, wants another one also says she needs a ko just
to get that bonus.




Roberto Sanchez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaiUaborejs
-works in insurance, boss allows him more time to train, work well. Says can't
train all day long anyhow so happy to work in insurance, not teaching anymore.
-says life is hard to do exams, work in insurance and fight in ufc
-says this fights ideal its 2-3hrs drive away, so wont be away from kids/wife.
-wasnt sharp with striking and too calm to last fight performance, had bad feeting
position and once he got hit went downhill.
-matches up well with joby, wanted to fight him on contender series hes a tough guy
hes a veteran with 3 ufc and 2 contender ufc fights.
-trained mainly stand up, lots of injuries last year but better now can focus on
stand up striking more now.
-cut to 125, about 5 more pounds to cut, never missed weight
-joby going to keep it standing but will take him down and submit him.
-6 months lay off makes it hard to get into fight shape, so now its done wants
more fights.
 
Sage now -300, Neal -215.

This is EXACTLY why no matter how good a capper I might think I am (and I think I'm pretty good, maybe not the best but pretty good) this can only be a hobby for me. I know you guys have alerts set up to let you know when odds drop or at the least are watching really closely. I just can't do that. If I'm helping my daughter with her homework I'm not gonna put her on hold if I hear my phone alert me that lines have opened. I refuse to be one of those parents.

I will let you young guys rake in the mountains of cash, while I keep to my (relatively) low stakes and miss out on some of sweet openers. That said, if you get too successful you just get limited to peanuts anyway. 5d limited me for a short time but my 2017 was lackluster enough that it looks like they took the limits off. I was never betting sums that were all the big anyway, so not sure why they limited me in the first place.

Anyway, end rant. Congrats on stealing Sage at -190. I'll pass at -300. Will consider if he drops back to -250 range.
 
Yea I’m bummed I missed the opener on sage. Was hoping people would still be fading him.

Don’t know about Neal being -215. Camozzi not good but is -215 justified for an unproven fighter with limited tape?
 
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Yea I’m bummed I missed the opener on sage. Was hoping people would still be fading him.
on the brightside you might have a +300 against sage after reduced juice
 
Someone's awfully confident in Brandon Davis. His line just ballooned from -125 up to -200.
 
Lots of dwtncs guys on this card.

Gotta settle for Roberto Sanchez at +105

Guess I should be happy I got him at dog price

I’ve got to watch tape on Gordon but Ferreira may have some value at +185
 
So... 5Dimes are still releasing the 'real' lines?
the real line is where the public takes them. wisdom of crowds and all that. opener means very little v quickly. eg sadistic example above
 
im much more interested in all these lines. didn't even bother with tape on main.
 
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