UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando

[turbozed]

how the fuck did russell doane get another fight after losing 4 in a row? he got the bj penn treatment, lucky to still be in the UFC.

To be fair to Doane, he probably got robbed against Alcantara. And the last fight against Bektic was short notice for Doane. UFC will give fighters at least one more fight if they agree to step in short notice. Kinda like an unwritten rule.

 

[Card]

Shelton now the favorite.

 

[northsofia]

Damn, Barao looked good on the weigh in, that doesnt give me a lot of confidence in my Kelleher bet...

 

[bunt]

Damn, Barao looked good on the weigh in, that doesnt give me a lot of confidence in my Kelleher bet...

The thing with Barao is he generally does look good both on the scale and when he's getting wrecked. It's like that innocent young face that shows no emotion.. when getting pummeled by TJ he still looked okay & getting his face elbowed in by sterling he still looked fine. However his output always drops around 1.5 rounds and I'm confident Kelleher will be the more hungry less weathered fighter

 

[northsofia]

Latifi now +130? Did i miss something about this fight?

 

[bunt]

Latifi now +130? Did i miss something about this fight?

I honestly see OSP handing him pretty easily but we shall see

Also a reminder to the Euro based the prelims start at 9.30 GMT!!!! Entire card should be done by 2.30 AM. Finally I can live bet an entire card.

US 4:00 p.m. EST, 1 p.m. PST!

 

[turbozed]

Latifi now +130? Did i miss something about this fight?

People probably bet osp after seeing him tower over Latifi during face offs

 

[northsofia]

I honestly see OSP handing him pretty easily but we shall see

Also a reminder to the Euro based the prelims start at 9.30 GMT!!!! Entire card should be done by 2.30 AM. Finally I can live bet an entire card.

US 4:00 p.m. EST, 1 p.m. PST!

Fuck it, i am 4 hours before the GMT

 

[Yotsuya]

Latifi now +130? Did i miss something about this fight?

I don’t know how much that Ohmbet Latifi special bet deal (£[email protected]) is affecting lines. I think many who took it were waiting for better odds on OSP to arb/swich sides. I’m more intrigued by OSP’s weird veteran savvy than Latifi’s gnomish powergrinding, so I swithced sides and threw in some extra. 0.5u for 1u OSP. At these odds maybe I should switch again, but I’ve kind of lost hope for my Q1, so fuck it.

 

[northsofia]

I honestly see OSP handing him pretty easily but we shall see

Also a reminder to the Euro based the prelims start at 9.30 GMT!!!! Entire card should be done by 2.30 AM. Finally I can live bet an entire card.

US 4:00 p.m. EST, 1 p.m. PST!

How do you see OSP wining this fight? For me he was 0:2 against Corey before the head kick and Latifi is even better wrestler than Corey. I think he will be able to implement the same game plan as Anderson and win a decision.

 

[Agent Mulder]

I realize he's fought (mostly) really solid competition over this period, but Jouban has one stoppage win in his last 7 fights. He's not the reckless brawler he used to be, that's pretty obvious to everyone.

Killa B's last 3 losses are by stoppage yes, but that's over an 8 fight stretch (5 years).

Personally, I don't think this fight ends with a stoppage by Jouban over 50% of the time. Not even close.

Jouban itd -130
NOT Jouban itd +100

I have to play not Jouban itd here. There's a lot of ways this fight can play out. Yeah, Jouban starching Ben is one of them, but half the time? No way.

I'd much prefer Fight GTD at +235 to be honest. Yes, Joubans chin isn't the best but I dont think Saunders has enough stopping power to justify betting NOT Jouban ITD at +100 instead of GTD at +235. Took it myself for 1u.

 

[vkram]

Anyone on Morales? Bermudez is still very much an unknown especially after the first round. Apparently the split decision he got over Saul Almeida was very controversial.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Odds on Alvey seems off to me. I'm not impressed with Prachnios overall game and I dont think he has a style that works great against Alvey. Alvey struggles against out fighters but Prachnio leaps in with punches, no head movement and leaves himself wide open and it gets worse as the fight goes on. Ataides tagged him repeatedly on the counter with left hooks from the 2nd round onwards just three fights ago and Ataides is a mediocre strike as best.
Prachnios puts pretty much everything he has in every strike and Alvey is still very durable (this being at LHW is however a concern). Prachnios wins are almost all in round 1, everything becomes very telegraphed after that. If Alvey doesn't get starched early he's gonna be able to land clean on his counter IMO. Could be a good LB opportunity after the first if Alvey survives. He will have to overcome the speed disadvantage early and not get caught.
I dont trust Alvey to wrestle but Prachnio also seems to have terrible TDD, he just lays down when you touch his legs but his get ups are pretty good.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Anyone on Morales? Bermudez is still very much an unknown especially after the first round. Apparently the split decision he got over Saul Almeida was very controversial.

Cant argue with those dog odds tbh. I'd bet him if I had to pick.

 

[turbozed]

Odds on Alvey seems off to me. I'm not impressed with Prachnios overall game and I dont think he has a style that works great against Alvey. Alvey struggles against out fighters but Prachnio leaps in with punches, no head movement and leaves himself wide open and it gets worse as the fight goes on. Ataides tagged him repeatedly on the counter with left hooks from the 2nd round onwards just three fights ago and Ataides is a mediocre strike as best.
Prachnios puts pretty much everything he has in every strike and Alvey is still very durable (this being at LHW is however a concern). Prachnios wins are almost all in round 1, everything becomes very telegraphed after that. If Alvey doesn't get starched early he's gonna be able to land clean on his counter IMO. Could be a good LB opportunity after the first if Alvey survives. He will have to overcome the speed disadvantage early and not get caught.
I dont trust Alvey to wrestle but Prachnio also seems to have terrible TDD, he just lays down when you touch his legs but his get ups are pretty good.

Out of all the mma bettors in the world, there are dozens of us on Alvey. Dozens!

 

[wack3d]

I realize he's fought (mostly) really solid competition over this period, but Jouban has one stoppage win in his last 7 fights. He's not the reckless brawler he used to be, that's pretty obvious to everyone.

Killa B's last 3 losses are by stoppage yes, but that's over an 8 fight stretch (5 years).

Personally, I don't think this fight ends with a stoppage by Jouban over 50% of the time. Not even close.

Jouban itd -130
NOT Jouban itd +100

I have to play not Jouban itd here. There's a lot of ways this fight can play out. Yeah, Jouban starching Ben is one of them, but half the time? No way.

i like it. it dont hurt that they are 10th planet teammates, im not sure it will matter with these two but we have seen alot of time in the past it often turn into more of a sparring fight when friends/teammates fight each other

 

[Caicara]

I really like Prachnio ITD at +187

Jouban should finish, but not in love with the odds...Jouban DEC +375 tho.
Hill should win by dec, but the situation is the same. I have a small stab at her ITD line at +650
Andrade should win by DEC

McMann is the same situation as Jouban/Hill. I believe she can get a finish. ITD at +400.

I'm really worried about my Yahya bet. I need some light. hahaha

 

[NorthernLights]

The thing with Barao is he generally does look good both on the scale and when he's getting wrecked. It's like that innocent young face that shows no emotion.. when getting pummeled by TJ he still looked okay & getting his face elbowed in by sterling he still looked fine.

It's that Jens Pulver smile

 

[t6p]

Shelton NSC +260 and Perez SUB +650.

Love this combination. Perez looked awful at the weigh-in and has two fairly recent sub losses on his record. Meanwhile, Shelton has fought the higher level of competition and has never been stopped.

Shelton does have a tendency to put himself in some dangerous positions on the ground, but his sub defense has looked excellent. Still worth the hedge though just in case, imo.

Perez KO is of course possible but seems highly unlikely. Two of his three career KOs came against guys with a combined record of 0-6 and his last KO, in 2014, came against Del Hawkins who had 1 fight in 6 years leading up to his fight with Perez.

 

[TheKingOwl]

I'm really worried about my Yahya bet. I need some light. hahaha

Even though Russell Doane was 1-4 in the last five, he did a good fight against the Alcantara and was better in standing fight against Bektic and Munhoz. The problem, I see, is that he gives a lot of sloppy low kicks and ends up suffering a takedown.

Last 5 Fights
Opponents Takedown vs Russel Doane: 11 times
Rani Yahia Takedown vs Opponents: 16 times

I think the line is a bit exaggerated due to the four defeats. But I'll stay out, because we'll probably see him take a guillotine.