UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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Much better prices on Stephens in round 4 & 5 at BM, btw, +1600 and +2500 respectively:
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No idea honestly. Not extremely familiar w the four fighters and I dont have much time to watch tape. Sorry <3
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felt weird after last card, pretty good fights all night, but losing a few bets kinda casted a dark cloud over the night. decided to not look at odds or forums all week. feelin better, looking forward to the fights. only betting ML this week.
.6u on:
Kelleher +135
Latifi +100 (pissed he's +130 now)
.7u on:
Hill -145
1u on:
stephens + andrade parlay +110
couple random thoughts, used to love barao around 2013-2015, but Dillashaw stole his soul and he isn't a good fighter anymore, no explosiveness, no killer instinct, heavily relied on PEDs, like all Nova Uniao fighters.
jouban is a much better striker than saunders, also seems like the bigger fighter, gonna be a really tough path to victory for Ben, picture jouban butchering him standing up, maybe even finishing.
I usually cringe at the sight of 3 girl fights, but these match ups are actually pretty good. mcmann renau has potential to suck, but the other two fights should be good.
how the fuck did russell doane get another fight after losing 4 in a row? he got the bj penn treatment, lucky to still be in the UFC.
.6u on:
Kelleher +135
Latifi +100 (pissed he's +130 now)
.7u on:
Hill -145
1u on:
stephens + andrade parlay +110
couple random thoughts, used to love barao around 2013-2015, but Dillashaw stole his soul and he isn't a good fighter anymore, no explosiveness, no killer instinct, heavily relied on PEDs, like all Nova Uniao fighters.
jouban is a much better striker than saunders, also seems like the bigger fighter, gonna be a really tough path to victory for Ben, picture jouban butchering him standing up, maybe even finishing.
I usually cringe at the sight of 3 girl fights, but these match ups are actually pretty good. mcmann renau has potential to suck, but the other two fights should be good.
how the fuck did russell doane get another fight after losing 4 in a row? he got the bj penn treatment, lucky to still be in the UFC.
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Shelton was one of my first plays. This is a coin flip at worst for Shelton. I don't think he's an easy fight for mid to upper tier guys. He's going to make those close. Is Perez even at that level? Hard to tell. If he is, I doubt this fight isn't close. If he's not, Shelton should be favored.
No idea on Morales/Berm. I was hoping to tail someone else.
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Agreed. I'm on Stephens ML -130 with small stabs at decision +322, RD4 +1375, and RD5 +2075.
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100% agree on Shelton, took some at +170 before getting tape in and wish I wouldve gotten more at the number. Added a bit after tape and then some more after Perez looking like death at weigh ins. Also bet his Dec line and NSC line, while stabbing sub small at +801. I do like this to go to a decision, but if there is a finish I think it is a Shelton sub.
Not enough tape out there on Berm, but from the quick rd 1 finishes you can tell he has a slick sub game. He has shown he can get guys in standing guillotines and other comprising positions on the feet too, sorta like Ortega. I think he finds a sub on Morales at some point as we know hes no grappling ace. Sub line is currently +265..
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I'm at 1u Shelton ML +115 with small stabs at sub +801 and rd3 +1800. If I could get that +170 line again I'd go at least 2u on it, I just wasn't finished with tape at the time.
I'm guessing that Perez is the favorite here based on his and Shelton's fights against Kevin Gray and how dominant Perez has looked in his UFC fights. There's not enough tape to get a good read on Perez IMO, but like @Oblivian said, Shelton is going to be a tough matchup for most guys in that division.
Perez's tdd, ability to get back to his feet if he does get taken down and cardio all seem to be unknowns. Combine that with the clearly bad weight cut and I think Shelton should be favored here.
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I should probably sign up. I've only ever used 5d.
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22 hours left untill the event and no props at all and not even over/unders for the fightpass prelims on Bet365, this shit is killing me
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Totally agree. I learned that after Cody KO prop vs Cruz. Was so sure he´d win. But then he played around...Not gonna do that again, even though the odds justifed the KO prop - the regret and feeling of not even getting anything out of predicting upset is as bad as a big fav letting you down by being a clown.
piglord
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i'm not sure, perry is nearly indestructible. i totally think griffin dec is within the realm of possibility.
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Yeah its more me wanting it to happen since I have some money on it. Half of Perrys interviews say he will be patient which worries me but he fights so emotionally anyway. He's dropped everyone he's fought though IIRC. I'm looking forward to the fight either way.
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I couldn’t bring myself to properly watch tape but from what I saw this feels like it’s going to be a close decision for either side. I have a small freeroll on Hill but I couldn’t resist throwing Moroz dec into a round robin at +260.
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I dont see Hill exploiting Moroz's wrestling and she's going to have to work w a decent reach disadvantage. IDK, I just took a shot on the decision line as well and I'm pretty happy w it. I agree w your sentiments, for whatever reason I thought Moroz was like +110 or something and i was like meh it's probably fairly accurate. +150 and +274 are good enough for me
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I'm not getting what people see in Kelleher here. True, I also was impressed by his last performance when I saw it live, but after rewatching not so much. Kelleher had his hands down, got taken down and honestly didn't look that amazing. And how much does a win over Stasiak say anyway?
Barao is obviously a solid dude. I think Kelleher's pressure style can get Kelleher in trouble. I think this fight can go like Gordon-Ferreira last weekend. Gordon and Kelleher seem a bit similar.
Canceled my over bet for this bout too.
Barao is obviously a solid dude. I think Kelleher's pressure style can get Kelleher in trouble. I think this fight can go like Gordon-Ferreira last weekend. Gordon and Kelleher seem a bit similar.
Canceled my over bet for this bout too.
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