UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando

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I'd much prefer Fight GTD at +235 to be honest. Yes, Joubans chin isn't the best but I dont think Saunders has enough stopping power to justify betting NOT Jouban ITD at +100 instead of GTD at +235. Took it myself for 1u.

I think it's close. Ben's submission skills have to be taken into account. I think playing both isn't the worst Idea honestly.
 
How do you see OSP wining this fight? For me he was 0:2 against Corey before the head kick and Latifi is even better wrestler than Corey. I think he will be able to implement the same game plan as Anderson and win a decision.

It will be interesting to see if Latifi actually TRIES to implement a wrestling-heavy gameplan. Everyone knows he's capable of it, but there's so many times he's comfortable just head hunting for long stretches.
 
Odds on Alvey seems off to me. I'm not impressed with Prachnios overall game and I dont think he has a style that works great against Alvey. Alvey struggles against out fighters but Prachnio leaps in with punches, no head movement and leaves himself wide open and it gets worse as the fight goes on. Ataides tagged him repeatedly on the counter with left hooks from the 2nd round onwards just three fights ago and Ataides is a mediocre strike as best.
Prachnios puts pretty much everything he has in every strike and Alvey is still very durable (this being at LHW is however a concern). Prachnios wins are almost all in round 1, everything becomes very telegraphed after that. If Alvey doesn't get starched early he's gonna be able to land clean on his counter IMO. Could be a good LB opportunity after the first if Alvey survives. He will have to overcome the speed disadvantage early and not get caught.
I dont trust Alvey to wrestle but Prachnio also seems to have terrible TDD, he just lays down when you touch his legs but his get ups are pretty good.

Alvey KO/TKO is +394. The problem with Sam is that his output is SO low. He just refuses to take the lead, ever. If Prachnios blows his wad trying to stop Sam early, Sam still may not step on the gas and try to make him pay for being tired. He'll sit back and wait to counter while Prachnios is allowed to plod around the cage and not expend much energy.

I could see Sam landing a counter that hurts Prachnios, Sam still has power. And Prachnios is ultra aggressive. Sam COULD win a decision I guess, but even though he does have some dec wins on his record recently (the ghosts of Rashad and Marquardt--the win over Nate being CLOSE), it's so hard to trust him to get the decision when he throws so few strikes generally.
 
Shelton rd 3 +1550. If Perez really had such a brutal cut, this has value imo.

I'm also playing o6.5 decisions and up. There's literally NO fights on this card that would shock me if they went the distance. Even Perry/Griffin has a chance imo (more likely it doesn't go the distance, but it could).
 
Shelton NSC +260 and Perez SUB +650.

Love this combination. Perez looked awful at the weigh-in and has two fairly recent sub losses on his record. Meanwhile, Shelton has fought the higher level of competition and has never been stopped.

Shelton does have a tendency to put himself in some dangerous positions on the ground, but his sub defense has looked excellent. Still worth the hedge though just in case, imo.

Perez KO is of course possible but seems highly unlikely. Two of his three career KOs came against guys with a combined record of 0-6 and his last KO, in 2014, came against Del Hawkins who had 1 fight in 6 years leading up to his fight with Perez.

LOL Shelton NSC is now -147. You have it at +260??? And Perez sub down to +550 and you have +650. Maybe a lot of people followed your lead and hit those 2.

Well, anyway...

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It will be interesting to see if Latifi actually TRIES to implement a wrestling-heavy gameplan. Everyone knows he's capable of it, but there's so many times he's comfortable just head hunting for long stretches.

I'd be shocked if he doesn't. I can't remember a recent fight of is that lasted more than a few minutes where he didn't at least attempt to get it to the ground multiple times.

But yes, his periods of inactivity are a concern. I think they're more to preserve his gastank than anything. My only play on the fight is Latifi dec +310, which I think is a great price for his most likely path.
 
LOL Shelton NSC is now -147. You have it at +260??? And Perez sub down to +550 and you have +650. Maybe a lot of people followed your lead and hit those 2.

Well, anyway...

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Haha, yea those were the prices on 5d earlier this morning when I posted that. I went 3u on Shelton NSC and 0.3u on Perez sub. I also have 1u Shelton ML +115 and small stabs at Shelton sub and rd3. So a Perez stoppage would hurt, especially by KO, but I think it's worth the risk.
 
Red Flag: Rani Yahya will attend UFC Orlando 11 days after his mother's death. Still, he ensures he is motivated to face Russell Doane. "She died ten days ago, I had to go back to Brazil, I was doing my ATT camp and I had to go back to say goodbye to attend the funeral, and it was a crazy period, but it's a divine decision, and we have and I am motivated "
 
I'd be shocked if he doesn't. I can't remember a recent fight of is that lasted more than a few minutes where he didn't at least attempt to get it to the ground multiple times.

But yes, his periods of inactivity are a concern. I think they're more to preserve his gastank than anything. My only play on the fight is Latifi dec +310, which I think is a great price for his most likely path.

Yeah that's an awesome price. I have Latifi ML +100 and +135 combined with OSP dec +347. If OSP stops Ilir I take a mini bath on this one with my pre fight bets.
 
Red Flag: Rani Yahya will attend UFC Orlando 11 days after his mother's death. Still, he ensures he is motivated to face Russell Doane. "She died ten days ago, I had to go back to Brazil, I was doing my ATT camp and I had to go back to say goodbye to attend the funeral, and it was a crazy period, but it's a divine decision, and we have and I am motivated "

Wow, yeah. I have Rani rd 1 at +320 small, and Doane rd 3 at +1400 very small. Otherwise just looking to LB this one.

Rani already with those gas tank issues that we all know about, now this. If he doesn't grab that sub early, very easy to see him gassing out even quicker than normal if his routine was jacked up.
 
Wow, yeah. I have Rani rd 1 at +320 small, and Doane rd 3 at +1400 very small. Otherwise just looking to LB this one.

Rani already with those gas tank issues that we all know about, now this. If he doesn't grab that sub early, very easy to see him gassing out even quicker than normal if his routine was jacked up.

I also think that Doane can finish a gassed Yahya. I got Doane r3 at +2800
 
Wow, yeah. I have Rani rd 1 at +320 small, and Doane rd 3 at +1400 very small. Otherwise just looking to LB this one.

Rani already with those gas tank issues that we all know about, now this. If he doesn't grab that sub early, very easy to see him gassing out even quicker than normal if his routine was jacked up.

Even before this news, I liked a stab at Doane decision at +684.
 
Odds on Alvey seems off to me. I'm not impressed with Prachnios overall game and I dont think he has a style that works great against Alvey. Alvey struggles against out fighters but Prachnio leaps in with punches, no head movement and leaves himself wide open and it gets worse as the fight goes on. Ataides tagged him repeatedly on the counter with left hooks from the 2nd round onwards just three fights ago and Ataides is a mediocre strike as best.
Prachnios puts pretty much everything he has in every strike and Alvey is still very durable (this being at LHW is however a concern). Prachnios wins are almost all in round 1, everything becomes very telegraphed after that. If Alvey doesn't get starched early he's gonna be able to land clean on his counter IMO. Could be a good LB opportunity after the first if Alvey survives. He will have to overcome the speed disadvantage early and not get caught.
I dont trust Alvey to wrestle but Prachnio also seems to have terrible TDD, he just lays down when you touch his legs but his get ups are pretty good.
Was thinking the same, I don't like Alveys fighting style but the opponent is perfectly picked for him.
 
Just going to point out one thing with Yahya - he's faced a lot of grapplers. Most of his gassing issues are against grapplers that hang with him on the ground.
 
Alvey KO/TKO is +394. The problem with Sam is that his output is SO low. He just refuses to take the lead, ever. If Prachnios blows his wad trying to stop Sam early, Sam still may not step on the gas and try to make him pay for being tired. He'll sit back and wait to counter while Prachnios is allowed to plod around the cage and not expend much energy.

I could see Sam landing a counter that hurts Prachnios, Sam still has power. And Prachnios is ultra aggressive. Sam COULD win a decision I guess, but even though he does have some dec wins on his record recently (the ghosts of Rashad and Marquardt--the win over Nate being CLOSE), it's so hard to trust him to get the decision when he throws so few strikes generally.
Yeah idk... It's hard to pick between the KO or DEC prop. I think the ML has enough value to not touch the props. I haven't decided yet if I wanna bet Alvey pre fight or just try to LB after r1.
 
Hoping for an exciting night of fights like last week. 3 women’s fights so I’d anticipate more of a decision heavy card, but just really hope that the women bring it. Hard for me to keep paying attention throughout when there are lackluster women’s fight and Sam Alvey stinking it up honestly.
 
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