UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    25,015
    Likes Received:
    10,141
    I think it's close. Ben's submission skills have to be taken into account. I think playing both isn't the worst Idea honestly.
     
  2. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    25,015
    Likes Received:
    10,141
    It will be interesting to see if Latifi actually TRIES to implement a wrestling-heavy gameplan. Everyone knows he's capable of it, but there's so many times he's comfortable just head hunting for long stretches.
     
  3. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    25,015
    Likes Received:
    10,141
    Alvey KO/TKO is +394. The problem with Sam is that his output is SO low. He just refuses to take the lead, ever. If Prachnios blows his wad trying to stop Sam early, Sam still may not step on the gas and try to make him pay for being tired. He'll sit back and wait to counter while Prachnios is allowed to plod around the cage and not expend much energy.

    I could see Sam landing a counter that hurts Prachnios, Sam still has power. And Prachnios is ultra aggressive. Sam COULD win a decision I guess, but even though he does have some dec wins on his record recently (the ghosts of Rashad and Marquardt--the win over Nate being CLOSE), it's so hard to trust him to get the decision when he throws so few strikes generally.
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    25,015
    Likes Received:
    10,141
    Shelton rd 3 +1550. If Perez really had such a brutal cut, this has value imo.

    I'm also playing o6.5 decisions and up. There's literally NO fights on this card that would shock me if they went the distance. Even Perry/Griffin has a chance imo (more likely it doesn't go the distance, but it could).
     
  5. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    25,015
    Likes Received:
    10,141
    LOL Shelton NSC is now -147. You have it at +260??? And Perez sub down to +550 and you have +650. Maybe a lot of people followed your lead and hit those 2.

    Well, anyway...

    upload_2018-2-24_10-7-46.jpeg
     
  6. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    2,859
    Likes Received:
    4,365
    I'd be shocked if he doesn't. I can't remember a recent fight of is that lasted more than a few minutes where he didn't at least attempt to get it to the ground multiple times.

    But yes, his periods of inactivity are a concern. I think they're more to preserve his gastank than anything. My only play on the fight is Latifi dec +310, which I think is a great price for his most likely path.
     
  7. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    2,859
    Likes Received:
    4,365
    Haha, yea those were the prices on 5d earlier this morning when I posted that. I went 3u on Shelton NSC and 0.3u on Perez sub. I also have 1u Shelton ML +115 and small stabs at Shelton sub and rd3. So a Perez stoppage would hurt, especially by KO, but I think it's worth the risk.
     
  8. TheKingOwl

    TheKingOwl White Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2016
    Messages:
    111
    Likes Received:
    113
    Red Flag: Rani Yahya will attend UFC Orlando 11 days after his mother's death. Still, he ensures he is motivated to face Russell Doane. "She died ten days ago, I had to go back to Brazil, I was doing my ATT camp and I had to go back to say goodbye to attend the funeral, and it was a crazy period, but it's a divine decision, and we have and I am motivated "
     
    Agent Mulder, Ukram, Card and 2 others like this.
  9. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    25,015
    Likes Received:
    10,141
    Yeah that's an awesome price. I have Latifi ML +100 and +135 combined with OSP dec +347. If OSP stops Ilir I take a mini bath on this one with my pre fight bets.
     
    t6p likes this.
  10. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    25,015
    Likes Received:
    10,141
    Wow, yeah. I have Rani rd 1 at +320 small, and Doane rd 3 at +1400 very small. Otherwise just looking to LB this one.

    Rani already with those gas tank issues that we all know about, now this. If he doesn't grab that sub early, very easy to see him gassing out even quicker than normal if his routine was jacked up.
     
  11. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2017
    Messages:
    1,422
    Likes Received:
    1,914
    Location:
    Spain
    I also think that Doane can finish a gassed Yahya. I got Doane r3 at +2800
     
  12. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    25,015
    Likes Received:
    10,141
    Damn what a great price. Nice.
     
    pytycrys likes this.
  13. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    2,859
    Likes Received:
    4,365
    Even before this news, I liked a stab at Doane decision at +684.
     
    mkess101 likes this.
  14. Post 2 Decision

    Post 2 Decision Black Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2014
    Messages:
    5,423
    Likes Received:
    6,701
    Location:
    604
    Yahya finish
    Barao decision
    Perry win
    Jouban win
    +1200

    Let's gooooo
     
    Caicara likes this.
  15. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,378
    Likes Received:
    5,782
    Location:
    Sewers
    doane r3 is still available at bet365 for +2800.
     
  16. clemente

    clemente Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2017
    Messages:
    226
    Likes Received:
    93
    Was thinking the same, I don't like Alveys fighting style but the opponent is perfectly picked for him.
     
  17. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2017
    Messages:
    1,545
    Likes Received:
    922
    Have 0.2u on that.

    I actually really like Doane to win this anyway and will probably take 1u @3.00
     
    pytycrys likes this.
  18. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    39,498
    Likes Received:
    8,381
    Location:
    Merica
    Just going to point out one thing with Yahya - he's faced a lot of grapplers. Most of his gassing issues are against grapplers that hang with him on the ground.
     
    iGnP likes this.
  19. Agent Mulder

    Agent Mulder Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2015
    Messages:
    5,121
    Likes Received:
    5,494
    Yeah idk... It's hard to pick between the KO or DEC prop. I think the ML has enough value to not touch the props. I haven't decided yet if I wanna bet Alvey pre fight or just try to LB after r1.
     
  20. BatBoyJG

    BatBoyJG Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2010
    Messages:
    3,476
    Likes Received:
    1,217
    Location:
    NYC
    Hoping for an exciting night of fights like last week. 3 women’s fights so I’d anticipate more of a decision heavy card, but just really hope that the women bring it. Hard for me to keep paying attention throughout when there are lackluster women’s fight and Sam Alvey stinking it up honestly.
     
    Koniradi98 likes this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page