UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

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Oblivian said:
This fight is probably one of those that I'm least confident in. I played Weidman and then likely play fight ends ITD in a parlay. I'd play either as a dog. Weidman's size could present some issues for Gastelum. His grappling may give Gastelum fits early too. I also think Weidman's power can wobble Gastelum if he connects. I'm just not so sure Gastelum at MW is going to be the best for his career.
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remember its 5 rounds.. Im a Weidman fan but I think Gastelum takes it after round 2
 
I can't believe what i'm reading about what people are expecting for odds on a couple of these fights.. i'm sure some of you know of what i speak..
 
Jamah said:
Ok. I got you.
It was very weird when we started praising Gregor Gillespie here, and he opened as a -170 favourite against Holbrook when we all thought that he was going to open at dog odds.
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If 5dimes relied on a single guy watching tape to create all their odds week by week that would be a recipe for disaster. Too much variance.

Considering that MMA is one of the only high-level sports with no meaningful stats to speak of there are no resources Kalikas has to create informed odds besides subjective analysis.

That includes this board.
 
EzFlyer said:
I can't believe what i'm reading about what people are expecting for odds on a couple of these fights.. i'm sure some of you know of what i speak..
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feel free to share your thoughts! (or PM:) )
 
My picks so far
Brian Kelleher
Timothy Johnnson
Lyman Good
Jimmie Riviera
Jeremy Kennedy over1.5r
Chris Wade
Ryan Laflare
Gastelum

Any opinions ? Any suggestions ? I would be very happy to hear from you guys
 
Wiktoruspro said:
My picks so far
Brian Kelleher
Timothy Johnnson
Lyman Good
Jimmie Riviera
Jeremy Kennedy over1.5r
Chris Wade
Ryan Laflare
Gastelum

Any opinions ? Any suggestions ? I would be very happy to hear from you guys
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there are no lines available for some of your picks
 
Oblivian said:
This fight is probably one of those that I'm least confident in. I played Weidman and then likely play fight ends ITD in a parlay. I'd play either as a dog. Weidman's size could present some issues for Gastelum. His grappling may give Gastelum fits early too. I also think Weidman's power can wobble Gastelum if he connects. I'm just not so sure Gastelum at MW is going to be the best for his career.
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Yeah, doesn't seem like Gastelum did well against Magny's size in their fight. Thanks
 
iGnP said:
Yeah, doesn't seem like Gastelum did well against Magny's size in their fight. Thanks
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Dude that was 2 years ago in ww. Gastelum is a better fighter now. Sure, Weidman is way bigger than him but if he dont finish him in 2 rounds than IT Will be Gastelums fight
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Dude that was 2 years ago in ww. Gastelum is a better fighter now. Sure, Weidman is way bigger than him but if he dont finish him in 2 rounds than IT Will be Gastelums fight
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You're right, Gastelum has looked great since the Magny fight (which was actually closer to 1.5 years ago than 2 years), but he's also fought 2 fighters who have been looking awful lately in Vitor and Hendricks and another fighter well past it who was coming off a 2+ year lay off in Kennedy. I do think that Gastelum has improved, but I'd still like to see how he handles a top flight 185'er before I can say for sure he's a contender at this weight class.

Also, if anything I think what happened in the Magny fight gives me more confidence in Weidman's ability to get Kelvin down. It's not like Gas has developed into a true MW (like Whittaker has for example), but he just didn't have the discipline to make 170 and I believe he's admitted that himself.

Kelvin was pretty reckless working to get back to his feet in the Magny fight and I think Chris might be able to make him pay where Magny didn't. If not, I'll be looking to live bet Gastelum.
 
t6p said:
You're right, Gastelum has looked great since the Magny fight (which was actually closer to 1.5 years ago than 2 years), but he's also fought 2 fighters who have been looking awful lately in Vitor and Hendricks and another fighter well past it who was coming off a 2+ year lay off in Kennedy. I do think that Gastelum has improved, but I'd still like to see how he handles a top flight 185'er before I can say for sure he's a contender at this weight class.

Also, if anything I think what happened in the Magny fight gives me more confidence in Weidman's ability to get Kelvin down. It's not like Gas has developed into a true MW (like Whittaker has for example), but he just didn't have the discipline to make 170 and I believe he's admitted that himself.

Kelvin was pretty reckless working to get back to his feet in the Magny fight and I think Chris might be able to make him pay where Magny didn't. If not, I'll be looking to live bet Gastelum.
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Remember when Whittaker barely beat Nadal. I've almost completely stopped paying attention to one off performances that happen years ago when capping fights now
 
t6p said:
Kelvin was pretty reckless working to get back to his feet in the Magny fight and I think Chris might be able to make him pay where Magny didn't.
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Gastelum could respect Weidman's power more than he does Magny's. I'm not sure if he is capable of that though. He can be pretty arrogant.
 
Pretty sure Luca is going to bet weidman in the next few days. So if you're playing him get your bets in. If you're playing kg, hold off
 
Weidman is so much bigger than gastelum. But how does he finish him? Kg has a solid chin, but weidman can crack

Cause if it goes into championship rounds history tells us he will be gassed
 
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ill800 said:
Pretty sure Luca is going to bet weidman in the next few days. So if you're playing him get your bets in. If you're playing kg, hold off
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Fuck me I already played KG big. Let's wait and see what happeneds.
 
I'm playing weidman ml and itd. Also 20 bucks on his sub line @+832

I'll see how the lines flip and I'll look to live bet kg.

There's a reason there are weight classes. And weidman is about two weight classes above kg

Might be able to get a good free roll after rd 1 and 2
 
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