UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

Took weidman at 2.25, I think that price can so easily shorten on LB after a takedown, his weight advantage and strength advantage could cause kelvin problems early on, he was much stronger than moose early too. Not sure who wins but we I'd man sub is tempting me too. Gastelum ko also if the price is right..

 

but hes never come off three (t)ko losses either

are people really thinking about betting on a guy who has been kod in his last three fights? these arent submission losses, he very well couldve suffered concussions on each of these stoppages as they were head shots

 

This card looks very good for betting

 

Dont count last lose as a tko... it was a strange stoppage with mousasi BUT Romero kod him bad

 

Good point. Kelvin isn't exactly a power puncher though. He dusted 100 year old Vitor yeah, but otherwise that's not really part of his game. He does have slick boxing and movement, and Weidman has seemed to look slower and more flat-footed lately.

I actually think this hits the cards a lot more often than not. o2.5 at -155 is good value to me. I bet it and have 2 open parlays with it as one leg. Kelvin is gonna bounce around try to potshot Weidman. There will most likely be some exchanges, but I think it could look similar to Gastelum/Hendricks to a degree.

 

why do You think so ? Any confident picks ?

 

Finally we get to see Jimmie Rivera again after Faber tried to end his career with eye pokes. Fun matchup too.

 

Hope his itd line is really nice. He's obviously a guy who tends to go to decisions but Almeida is so reckless and aggressive that I could easily see Jimmy tagging him and putting him away.

 

@Wiktoruspro

I really really like Bermudez. What's Elkins path to victory? The only thing that prevents Bermudez from being a juiced favourite is that he doesn't have the best chin in the world and that he has lost 2 in a row. Elkins isn't going to be able to take Bermudez down. If anybody gets taken down, it's going to be Elkins, and if it's an stand up battle, Dennis is the better striker.

Livebetting in Weidman vs Gastelum is going to be quite interesting too, we all know Weidman cardio issues and it's a 5 round fight.

I also like Burgos, he has good TDD and he packs some power. Pepey's striking makes me cringe, he throws wild sloppy punches that are easy to counter. I like Rivera too, but need to watch tape on him.

I know that this card is 2 weeks away, but what do you guys think?

 

already took gastelum at -140 and -145 wediman has really fallen off and after strong first rounds gasses badly. I dont think he can get and keep gastelum down.

 

Agreed. I also think Weidman nsc is superior to his ML at +155. I could see him winning the first couple rounds, but if he isn't able to get a finish I think Kelvin will take over late. Similar to how Romero/Whit went.

Chris will have a significant size advantage and Kennedy had some success grappling him early, but like Weidman he didn't have the cardio to maintain it. Right now I'm thinking about playing Weidman nsc, then looking to live bet Gastelum after a round or two. Only problem is I'm going to the event and I hate dealing with live betting on my phone.

 

There are some damn good fights that are going to be stuck on fight pass & unavailable for live betting. Brings a tear to my eye.

Instead of live betting Burgos, or wade vs perez or Kennedy or Kelleher (the goat) vs Vera, we have to watch Sherman vs Grabowski. Life isn't fair sometimes.

 

@Jamah holy shit I didnt know its a 5 round fight... damn Im a big Weidman fan but I think Gastelum takes it after round 3.. similiar fight to Romero - Whittaker in my opinion.

 

Bets I'm looking at right now. Gonna do some "tape study" on a couple fighters as I'm not familiar with Tim johnsons opponent.


My thoughts in spoilers. Feel free to correct me if I'm wronng.

Spoiler

Huge favorites?

Chris wade- don't see him losing to Frankie Perez. Marc diakase was physically stronger than Perez so Wade is gonna manhandle Perez in the clinch. His striking is probably better too.

Natal- better striking game(gave Whittaker some trouble), wrestling game, and Bjj game. His chin is his only liability in this fight.


Moderate favorites:

Bermudez- he's probably gonna be juiced as hell. He's the better overall fighter but sometimes that doesn't matter against Elkins. I still think he wins as he's similar to Bektic but has more experience.

Pat Cummings-Gians wrestling is not the best and he admitted albeit jokingly that Pat Cummings is probably gonna win(Ryan Laflare said in on the UFC unfiltered podcast).


Small favorites:

Jimmie Rivera- I think he boxes Almeida up here. He's gonna get the shorter fighter but his boxing is up there with Codys and Tjs in the division. Think he takes a decision.

Brian Kelleher- his striking is pretty unknown but I liked his boxing when it was present in highlights/ vids.
I think kelleher can take down Vera and possibly get another sub or decision. Hometown fight as well.

Jeremy Kennedy- I honestly hope he opens as a dog as I like him but this seems like a pick em fight. Just not that impressed with Kyle.

 

It could go the exact same way. Although Whittaker is probably a better striker than Gast. and Yoel is probably a worse striker than Chris. I bet on Chris, but wouldn't say I'm super confident.

 

What's Weidman's most likely path to victory here? Seems like all his ways to win are low probability.

 

Get a finish from top position during the first 10 minutes I would say, anything else would surprise me a lot.

 

Chris has some power in his hands, I hope he knocks him out. Dude kod Silva