UFC Fox 24 - DJ vs Reis - Kansas City

[Deleted member 510671]

No prob I had Rumble too and it was an elite pick imo. He had all the tools to beat Cormier but no one knew he would approach this fight like an idiot.

Anyway im little bit scared of Collier. I mean Clarke is better athlete but he gasses at the same time. Collier is terrible too. It's gonna be a close fight.

Certainly an elite pick seeing as they'd already fought fairly recently.

The first fight showed that:

Rumble can't knock out Cormier - hit him with flush overhands, headkicks while fresh.
Cormier had a clear strength advantage.
Cormier had a grappling advantage.
Cormier had a cardio advantage.

Gameplan did not mean shit. The only reason Rumble initiated the clinch, was because he had it confirmed once again that DC could take his best shots. The only path to victory at that point is to initate the wrestling first(because eventually DC would close the distance anyways) and see if he could lay on him for 5 rounds. No bueno.

Cormier beats Rumble 10/10 times in their current respective states.

It was a terrible bet from the get-go on your part, there is no way around it.

 

[cagebrain]

Certainly an elite pick seeing as they'd already fought fairly recently.

The first fight showed that:

Rumble can't knock out Cormier - hit him with flush overhands, headkicks while fresh.
Cormier had a clear strength advantage.
Cormier had a grappling advantage.
Cormier had a cardio advantage.

Gameplan did not mean shit. The only reason Rumble initiated the clinch, was because he had it confirmed once again that DC could take his best shots. The only path to victory at that point is to initate the wrestling first(because eventually DC would close the distance anyways) and see if he could lay on him for 5 rounds. No bueno.

Cormier beats Rumble 10/10 times in their current respective states.

It was a terrible bet from the get-go on your part, there is no way around it.

I was on DC too, but it's not crazy to think that if Anthony did his best to keep the distance and strike that he could knock out DC. He just has a mental deficiency that people assumed he could shore up in a rematch.

 

[BigNick100]

I jumped on Collier +125 and Collier rd2, too.

He has wilted and kinda quit a couple times, which is concerning, but I think Clark is more raw / less developed in mma (but is more explosive)... And he seems darned chinny.

Thought about Collier nsc instead of ml, but the fact that he's from Missouri made me stick with ml (in case close Dec)

Well Collier def didn't wilt in his last fight, he got clinched in the 1st round and got a knee'd straight in his nose which broke it in the 1st round, then came back and used the clinch to put his opponent away. Like you said, Clark is def the more green fighter and he is the more explosive one with better wrestling, but Clark slows down after round 1, which is why I see round 2 and 3 as good value for Collier.

 

[michi972]

Thoughts on my picks:
1u Whittaker+Mendes+Waterson+Cummings vs Coy u 1,5+Stephens+Nelson
1u Whittaker
1u Stephens
1u Nelson
1u Mendes
1u Nelson
1u Stephens+Evans Smith
3U Stephens+Nelson vs Volkov o 1,5
small unit stakes

 

[King_Brown]

He picked Garbrandt too

cody was 2.55, whittaker is around 2.8

Certainly an elite pick seeing as they'd already fought fairly recently.

The first fight showed that:

Rumble can't knock out Cormier - hit him with flush overhands, headkicks while fresh.
Cormier had a clear strength advantage.
Cormier had a grappling advantage.
Cormier had a cardio advantage.

Gameplan did not mean shit. The only reason Rumble initiated the clinch, was because he had it confirmed once again that DC could take his best shots. The only path to victory at that point is to initate the wrestling first(because eventually DC would close the distance anyways) and see if he could lay on him for 5 rounds. No bueno.

Cormier beats Rumble 10/10 times in their current respective states.

It was a terrible bet from the get-go on your part, there is no way around it.

haha captain hindsight you are so smart. Anyone can be knocked out it just needs correct angle, timing, power etc. I think Cormier rolled with the first overhand right he ate from Rumble. I bet if Rumble hits a clean uppercut Cormier would be ko'd. No chin is uncrackable it just didn't happen this fight.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Namajunas is going to dominate Waterson, I think this will look very one sided.

Waterson didn't look good in Invicta besides that on time she fought that 50 year old Japanese lady. She's gotten two easy fights in the UFC, Magana is the worst 115er to fight in the UFC and PVZ is just not that good.

Namajunas is just bigger and better. I think she outmatches Waterson anywhere the fight goes. Expect to see an improved Namajunas, she's young, she's had time off, she's made changes to her camp, she's always getting better and she's had experience against top 115ers, doing a full camp with Shevchenko doesn't hurt either.

Waterson clearly has hype, coming off two impressive wins, the media love her and the UFC are putting her in a big spot again.

Rose has been out of the spotlight and she's coming off an L, the line show's me that she's being underestimated. I personally cap her around -250. I don't think many 115ers can beat her.

 

[Sham5916910]

I disagree her wrestling aint that good. I think she will get out muscled by Evans smith.

Neither is aes. She struggled to out wrestle a 115er in macedo

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Has anyone actaully seen Waterson vs Tamada AKA 50 year old Japanese lady? This was Waterson's only successful title defence as the Invicta atomweight champ. One of the biggest beatdowns in WMMA IMO, the poor old lady just ate it for 3 rounds, I'm actaully surprised the athletic commission sanctioned, it was a complete miss match. The fight was a couple years ago and Tamada was 47 at the time, brutal stuff.

 

[King_Brown]

Danny "420" Segura is drunk tonight

Stephens is always a wild card when picking fights, but I think if Moicano can avoid getting knocked out in 15 minutes, the Brazilian can outpoint Stephens with his long jab and kicks. Also, if Moicano were to get rattled with a bomb from Stephens, he can always go to his back and pull guard.

Pick: Moicano

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Danny "420" Segura is drunk tonight

LOL pull guard

 

[raketmannen]

Certainly an elite pick seeing as they'd already fought fairly recently.

The first fight showed that:

Rumble can't knock out Cormier - hit him with flush overhands, headkicks while fresh.
Cormier had a clear strength advantage.
Cormier had a grappling advantage.
Cormier had a cardio advantage.

Gameplan did not mean shit. The only reason Rumble initiated the clinch, was because he had it confirmed once again that DC could take his best shots. The only path to victory at that point is to initate the wrestling first(because eventually DC would close the distance anyways) and see if he could lay on him for 5 rounds. No bueno.

Cormier beats Rumble 10/10 times in their current respective states.

It was a terrible bet from the get-go on your part, there is no way around it.

Of course it was the way he fought that made him lose lol. DC took 1 or 2 powershots, I doubt he would take 20+, obviously rumble can win if he dont fight like a moron. Agree with it being a bad bet in heinsight, rumble lack will and fighting spirit

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Thoughts on Evans-Smith?

I like the cut of her jib. But not as much as the cut of her hair

Oh, you were referring to the fight but you weren't you?



I like her there too!

 

[Joseph Budden]

Vera vs AES is low level MMA at its finest but Veira is nothing more than a physical fighter. She literally has no other discernible traits or skills. It was frankly embarrassing watching her move in slow motion vs Fasholz to even get the clinch positions she wants when she got in close range. That fight was such a chore to sit through.

 

[EzFlyer]

Thug Rose/KH FOTN +550.

Odds kind of lame but this is for sure the fight I favor to win it. Odds not very good that it ends quickly, should be good scrambles, etc.

i took that one, too. 13 fight card, never easy, tiny bet, but i'm w/ya

i also did tiny bets on jacare fastest sub +500 and DJ fastest KO +1450

just some fun action.

 

[Joseph Budden]

FOTN is kind of tough for this card, but i'm taking stabs on two lowkey candidates. Green vs Mago +1000 and Collier vs Clark +1150

Ill also stab Duquesnoy Fastest KO +700 and Jacare fastest sub +450

 

[iGnP]

I want to know the rationale for those with a strong lean on Whittaker. Is is Jacare's age? How he looked like of "meh" vs Tim? I guess I'm struggling a bit to see how anyone could REALLY like him in this spot.

The blueprint to someone beating Jacare is a brilliant wrestler with a good gas tank and solid striking who can stuff TD attempts without tiring and win standup exchanges. Yoel had some of those things, but I still do think Jacare won that fight. Whittaker imo is missing the MOST important of those things, and that's the ability to stop the TD. Jacare has established himself as an extremely effective MMA grappler (even his wrestling), not just a bjj legend. Meaning not only is it pretty much game over once he gets guys down, but also that he's developed the ability to get them down in the first place. Whittaker (from what I've seen) sure doesn't seem like a guy who can stuff TD's for 15 minutes from Jacare. And unlike traditional wrestlers, guys like Jacare and Maia have a HUGE edge when it comes to working for TD's: they don't give a shit if they end up on their back in a scramble. They can take chances other guys can't. For example if somehow Whittaker ends up in Jacare's guard, Robert will be in panic mode trying to get back to his feet before he gets swept and is screwed.

Personally, despite the fact that Jacare has shown a very good chin I think Whittaker's only shot is landing something huge and getting a finish that way. I'd rather play his (Whittaker's) KO line at +312 than his ML at +200 or whatever.

Jacare really doesn't have a ton of value either imo. I guess at -200 or better I like him here, I did bet his itd (which right now is better than his sub line LOL) at +110. Jacare KO at +690 I'm gonna stab small too. If Robert gets mounted and Jacare pounds away it's possible we see a TKO stoppage.

Value. I think Jacare should be like -130ish, not over -200. I think you're implying Whittaker only has a puncher's chance and I don't think that at all. And do an extent, I think I think he fits into that prototypical fighter to beat Jacare that you outlined early in your post.

 

[Jamah]

FOTN is kind of tough for this card, but i'm taking stabs on two lowkey candidates. Green vs Mago +1000 and Collier vs Clark +1150

Ill also stab Duquesnoy Fastest KO +700 and Jacare fastest sub +450

Collier and Clark are very chinny , we could see a fast KO in their fight, but I like Duquesnoy fastest KO +700

 

[mkess101]

i took that one, too. 13 fight card, never easy, tiny bet, but i'm w/ya

i also did tiny bets on jacare fastest sub +500 and DJ fastest KO +1450

just some fun action.

I have Jacare fastest sub too. Took Stephens fastest KO +1100

 

[Joseph Budden]

Collier and Clark are very chinny , we could see a fast KO in their fight, but I like Duquesnoy fastest KO +700

Quick KO and Clark with a wrestling centric gameplan could be a big hinderance. But at +1050 I see value cause this could also be a fun fight of two aggressive guys pushing the pace, throwing volume, and become a sloppy brawl

.07u play at the end of the day

 

[letmebangbrah]

not my most favorite bet to make but put a little over 1 unit on a 3 team round robin of mendes, collier, nelson, green, smolka, williams, whittaker, waterson returning about 35 units. like most of you i think the odds on these fights should be closer than they are so hoping to go maybe 5/8 and come out with some profit with this.