UFC Fox 24 - DJ vs Reis - Kansas City | Page 47

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. mkess101 Title incoming...

    mkess101
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    Not "easy", no, I agree. But again Jacare has such a luxury when he pursues TD's of not worrying about ending up on his back. Most guys need to set up TD's lest they shoot from too far a distance and end up scrambling to not end up being the one taken down. Jacare just doesn't need to be concerned with that.

    He will willingly strike often, which is why I give Whit at least a reasonable chance to pull the upset. And Whittaker uses distance very well. There's definitely things to like if you are backing Whittaker, no doubt. But if Jacare doggedly pursues TD's from the start, I just don't know how Whittaker deals with it. And as @MMA Goodfella pointed out, the paranoia of being taken down also can limit the offensive striking game of a guy like Whittaker.
     
    #921
  2. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

    Cptn1NSAN0
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    I'm very surprised that Stephens is less juiced than guys like Sterling coming off two losses or Sanchez who only has a couple UFC fights.
     
    #922
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  3. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    MMA Goodfella
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    Yep, he calls himself #1 when half this jthtead is better and my ROI is much higher with avg bets are +225 L180 & +219 L365 with ROI of +28.34 and +17.03 respectively.
     

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    #923
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  4. NinjaCat456 Blue Belt

    NinjaCat456
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    With his insistence on picking favourites every time (bar Whittaker) he's essentially just selling the bookmaker's odds back to the public for thousands of pounds a pop. He's a fucking genius.
     
    #924
  5. NinjaCat456 Blue Belt

    NinjaCat456
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    Would like to think so. Elkins is a durable sob though, Williams doesn't like getting hit.
     
    #925
  6. MMA Diversity MMA Diversity

    MMA Diversity
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    No picks for today?
     
    #926
  7. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    What did you see from Moicano that makes you like him here?
     
    #927
  8. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    Fair enough. We shall see tonight! I just don't see how you can cap Jacare at -200 range or better when Whittaker has a very realistic path to victory and at the prime of his career versus a guy who is 37. More so, Jacare just doesn't look the same physically than he has in the past. It was overlooked in his last fight because a declining Jacare is still much better than Tim
     
    #928
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  9. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

    Cptn1NSAN0
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    Fucking wild that Duquesnoy is gonna close more juiced than DJ.
     
    #929
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  10. mkess101 Title incoming...

    mkess101
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    This is 100% a valid point. Enough to mean he can't secure TD's and work his ground game? I tend to doubt it, but for sure it's a variable that has to be taken into account.
     
    #930
  11. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    I agree his physique doesn't looked as good as it used to, but IMO there hasn't been any evidence of a decline in performance in the cage. He arguably beat Romero only a year and a half ago.

    But yea, really looking forward to this one. Seems to be the most debated fight on the card. May the better man win.
     
    #931
  12. Joseph Budden Yellow Card

    Joseph Budden
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    #932
  13. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    I don't mean to take away from Jacares performance against Yoel (and I haven't seen it recently so I could be getting the details wrong) but didn't he only have success in the third when Yoel was already tired? I kinda remember him being shut down in the second round and the only argument for him winning that round was due to Yoel's inactivity. Correct me if I'm wrong

    Whittaker isn't gonna gas out nor is he a low output guy. He won't defend takedowns like Yoel but I think he can do a good job of it while having success in the stand up
     
    #933
  14. Monster Meat Green Belt

    Monster Meat
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    what does everything think of the demetrious over 3.5 at -175. Reis seems game enough to avoid anything early. A finish is very possible but thinking that would later in round 4 or 5.
     
    #934
  15. King_Brown #AndStill #1 bettor on Sherdog ($4300)

    King_Brown
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    im playing it. dj wont sub him tho. will be a 5 round kickboxing fight
     
    #935
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  16. Monster Meat Green Belt

    Monster Meat
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    yea it took it at -165 in parlay. DJ by decision looks nice also at +100
     
    #936
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  17. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    is your av of norton from rounders? fucking great film, re-watched it recently, some good lessons for ppl like us itt lol.

    some of them are dogshit for sure, some bookmakers even have ppl do write ups for them which are terrible, a lot of the time i get the feeling they are writers for other sports and are relatively clueless on mma knowledge, awfull considering how uninformed casualy bettors are about the sport as it is. betfair had a guy write a column on their site for the diaz/mcgregor fight saying to bet conor because it might be fixed to make a 3rd fight for the money..luckilly it only got a few views, it won but man they can be so irresponsible at times with their reasoning.

    I gave jacare round 2, it was a bit of a stalemate, jacare would of taken romero down but yoel grabbed the fence for a good 3 or 4 seconds, he then reversed the takedown attempt and took jacare down but the ref stood them up and took the takedown away from yoel, could of been why 2 of the judges gave it to romero imo.. I would of scored it a draw but romero did way more damage so I think the decision was ok in the end. round 3 I thought jacare was stupid to go for the takedown, there was like 2 mins left and romero looked done taking shots agains the cage, jacare didn't have enough time to work his JJ in the end.
     
    #937
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  18. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    You're remembering it pretty much the way it went down. Both guys were pretty inactive in the first until the spinning back first/gnp from Yoel for the last 90 secs or so of the round. The second was more of the same and you could really make an argument for either guy winning it. However, at one point it looked like Jacare was in position to land a body lock takedown and Yoel grabbed the fence, which put him in top position. The ref stood them up but it could have made a huge difference if Jacare got top position there. And yes, Yoel was gassed in the third and it was all Jacare.

    You make good points and I don't necessarily disagree with your play on Whittaker, there are certainly reasons to feel confident in him here. But, I'm on Jacare on -190 and I like the price. I don't believe that Whittaker's advantage on the feet is by that wide of a margain (remains to be seen), especially with the threat of the takedown. And I do believe that Jacare's advantage on the ground is to the point where one takedown could end the fight.

    EDIT: @Roads55 is on point with his breakdown and he beat me to it
     
    #938
  19. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    TOTALLY forgot about the fence grab honestly
     
    #939
  20. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Jae Gibbz
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    I hit both of those "fastest" plays also. I love the French Tom +700 despite my action on Williams
     
    #940
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