UFC FN 128 - Barboza vs Lee - Atlantic City

[Wiktoruspro]

He did literally nothing with the takedowns though and from memory he was the one taking more damage in the striking department, also he got cut up by 2 headbutts so all the blood probably swayed the judges. I had money on Merab in that fight and was not suprised by the decision

Who you Got in this one ?

 

[mkess101]

Lee sub +135 WTF??

I was thinking to use this as my hedge but this makes me want to just f'ing play NOT Lee sub at -170 LOL.

 

[t6p]

Lee sub +135 WTF??

I was thinking to use this as my hedge but this makes me want to just f'ing play NOT Lee sub at -170 LOL.

I played Lee KO at +1200. Insane line imo.

 

[lilbloaty]

Lee sub +135 WTF??

I was thinking to use this as my hedge but this makes me want to just f'ing play NOT Lee sub at -170 LOL.

That would be dumb

 

[mkess101]

That would be dumb

Hmm.

So I'm probably not gonna play it but not because I don't think there's value. I just already have enough tied up on Barboza ML.

But you think it would be "dumb" so you see no value. Which means you think that the likelihood that this fight ends in a sub by Lee is over 37%?

Personally with all the ways this fight could go I think that's crazy, but I guess we just see it differently.

 

[lilbloaty]

Hmm.

So I'm probably not gonna play it but not because I don't think there's value. I just already have enough tied up on Barboza ML.

But you think it would be "dumb" so you see no value. Which means you think that the likelihood that this fight ends in a sub by Lee is over 37%?

Personally with all the ways this fight could go I think that's crazy, but I guess we just see it differently.

lee gets everyone down early in mount or takes their back. barboza crumbles under any sort of pressure and has been smashed by every good grappler he's faced. i think fading the most likely outcome at those odds doesnt make sense

 

[mkess101]

I kinda like the value on Lee dec at +4xx if anything. Barboza held that whizzer vs Khabib for dear life to not get the back taken. He does the same vs Lee and I'm not sure how Lee finishes.

Also contemplating Edson NSC at + odds since Lee chin has seemingly been kinda weak

Man you told me Felder gets no credit for eating Barboza's shots cuz Barboza hasn't shown power and now you gonna play Barboza NSC??

WEAK

Ha ha kidding. But honestly I like Edson Dec actually. I think Lee gonna struggle a he'l of a lot more than Khabib did in getting Barboza down and I think Lee is getting his lead leg chewed up in this one. I have some on Barboza Dec +4xx

 

[iGnP]

Ha ha kidding. But honestly I like Edson Dec actually. I think Lee gonna struggle a he'l of a lot more than Khabib did in getting Barboza down and I think Lee is getting his lead leg chewed up in this one. I have some on Barboza Dec +4xx

What makes you think that?

 

[mkess101]

lee gets everyone down early in mount or takes their back. barboza crumbles under any sort of pressure and has been smashed by every good grappler he's faced. i think fading the most likely outcome at those odds doesnt make sense

Aside from Khabib (who uses chain wrestling against the cage unlike Lee who relies on shooting timed doubles from distance), who are these good grapplers who have "smashed" Barboza on the mat? Ferg sunk in a d'arce after Barboza was already battered by strikes. Otherwise...?

Lee is very good on the mat. But I think you are being WAY too presumptive in assuming he so easily gets it there. Barboza is tough as hell to take down by shooting doubles (or even singles) that are Lee's way of getting fights too the mat.

 

[mkess101]

What makes you think that?

See my reply above this one.

 

[lilbloaty]

Aside from Khabib (who uses chain wrestling against the cage unlike Lee who relies on shooting timed doubles from distance), who are these good grapplers who have "smashed" Barboza on the mat? Ferg sunk in a d'arce after Lee was already battered by strikes. Otherwise...?

Lee is very good on the mat. But I think you are being WAY too presumptive in assuming he so easily gets it there. Barboza is tough as hell to take down by shooting doubles (or even singles) that are Lee's way of getting fights too the mat.

you're getting misled by the fact barboza fought striker after striker for years before ferg and khabib, his tdd stat is inflated for that reason. any good grappler hes fought hes lost. any guy who can pressure hes lost.

lee is a way better finisher than khabib, he might have one of the best top games in mma, he's dangerous as fuck. gets the mount and back with ease and finishes early. when's khabib ever done that? it's different, khabib is a control and torture guy, he's actually a terrible finisher, lee is a beast of a finisher.

 

[mkess101]

you're getting misled by the fact barboza fought striker after striker for years before ferg and khabib, his tdd stat is inflated for that reason. any good grappler hes fought hes lost. any guy who can pressure hes lost.

lee is a way better finisher than khabib, he might have one of the best top games in mma, he's dangerous as fuck. gets the mount and back with ease and finishes early. when's khabib ever done that? it's different, khabib is a control and torture guy, he's actually a terrible finisher, lee is a beast of a finisher.

Melendez, Dunham, Castillo are all grappling first guys in their careers. All tried to take Barboza down and failed. It's not just his "stats", you have to actually watch him. He has great balance, fights for underhooks correctly, is fundamentally sound.

I agree once on the mat that Lee is a beast. I just see him struggling to get it there. Could I be wrong? Sure. I mean maybe the beating from Khabib has lasting effects, who knows?

But from what I've seen it's FAR from a given that Lee gets him down.

 

[lilbloaty]

Melendez, Dunham, Castillo are all grappling first guys in their careers. All tried to take Barboza down and failed. It's not just his "stats", you have to actually watch him. He has great balance, fights for underhooks correctly, is fundamentally sound.

I agree once on the mat that Lee is a beast. I just see him struggling to get it there. Could I be wrong? Sure. I mean maybe the beating from Khabib has lasting effects, who knows?

But from what I've seen it's FAR from a given that Lee gets him down.

dunham doesnt count it was a ko in the first couple min lol and castillo got him down and it was a super close fight. we'll forget about washed up gil who hasn't taken anyone down in half a decade. any time barboza fights someone who runs forward he absolutely crumbles besides that fraud benny who gave him an obvious read to get a flying knee but that's extreme low % shit. barboza simply cant move fighting backwards.

i guarantee lee gets him down at least once.

 

[t6p]

Melendez, Dunham, Castillo are all grappling first guys in their careers. All tried to take Barboza down and failed. It's not just his "stats", you have to actually watch him. He has great balance, fights for underhooks correctly, is fundamentally sound.

I agree once on the mat that Lee is a beast. I just see him struggling to get it there. Could I be wrong? Sure. I mean maybe the beating from Khabib has lasting effects, who knows?

But from what I've seen it's FAR from a given that Lee gets him down.

Castillo hurt Barboza with punches first, but once he got him down he absolutely smashed him in that first round. Lee almost certainly finishes in that scenario. Also, Melendez isn't much of a wrestler and the Dunham fight only lasted 3 mins. Outside of Khabib, Lee is the best wrestler Barboza will have faced.

I do agree with your points about Barboza being very difficult to take down in open space though. This is a tricky fight to pick imo.

 

[mkess101]

Castillo hurt Barboza with punches first, but once he got him down he absolutely smashed him in that first round. Lee almost certainly finishes in that scenario. Also, Melendez isn't much of a wrestler and the Dunham fight only lasted 3 mins. Outside of Khabib, Lee is the best wrestler Barboza will have faced.

I do agree with your points about Barboza being very difficult to take down in open space though. This is a tricky fight to pick imo.

I need to rewatch the Castillo fight. It's been forever since I saw it honestly.

I think Melendez was a pretty good wrestler at one point. Maybe that had gone by the time he faced Edson...not sure.

I like Lee. I think that IF he gets Edson down that Edson is in trouble. Lee is absolutely that good on the mat. I just don't think he's gonna find it easy actually getting it there.

If I was of the mind that Lee should for sure hit TD's when he wants, I'd play his rd 1/2 props at juicier odds that his name sub prop at +135. If he hasn't locked up the win on the mat early, there's a decent chance that by rd 3 his legs have been battered to the point where he DEFINITELY is gonna find it really hard to explode through a double and get a TD.

 

[mkess101]

dunham doesnt count it was a ko in the first couple min lol and castillo got him down and it was a super close fight. we'll forget about washed up gil who hasn't taken anyone down in half a decade. any time barboza fights someone who runs forward he absolutely crumbles besides that fraud benny who gave him an obvious read to get a flying knee but that's extreme low % shit. barboza simply cant move fighting backwards.

i guarantee lee gets him down at least once.

Once?

Yeah I'd agree at least once. But jeez if that's the threshold...

Barboza actually stuffed some of Khabib's TD's and got back to his feet quickly another 1-2 times. If you really think 1-2 TD's means a sub is so likely for Lee...IDK man. I disagree. And again, that's with me being in agreement about how good he is on the mat.

 

[mkess101]

I'm worrying a lot more about Lees bodylock takedowns in this fight, Barboza got good enough distance management and reaction/explosiveness to stay away from most of the doubleleg blasts. Got a small bet on Barboza ml

Early on I agree. If it doesn't happen early, Lee is gonna have a lot less steam most likely with the leg kicks he's likely to be taking.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I'm worrying more about Lees bodylock takedowns in this fight, Barboza got good enough distance management and reaction/explosiveness to stay away from most of the doubleleg blasts. Got a small bet on Barboza ml

100% this. Lee's grip is formidable. He gets the bodylock on and either trips you or just pulls you to the ground and his mat returns with the body lock are good too. I'm on Barb too.

 

[iGnP]

Barboza hasn't shown any power in his hands though lol I def stand by that. But were talking about him against a guy who got sparked by Leo Santos and Edson just survived three rounds vs Khabib. No play yet on that NSC but I am def considering it.

Idk how I feel about Barb dec. on its own with questions of Lee's cardio and chin, but I am contemplating the over.

Why do you question Lee's cardio in a 3 round fight?

edit: OK nvm thought it was a 3 rounder

 

[Jamah]

Why do you question Lee's cardio in a 3 round fight?

It's a 5 round fight, it's the main event.