UFC FN 128 - Barboza vs Lee - Atlantic City

I’d play nakamura at +200 or better
 
Santos vs Branch is an intriguing fight. Santos might be the most explosive guy Branch has faced and Branch might be the best grappler Santos has faced (Spicely maybe?). Hard to pick a side on off the cuff.
 
Santos vs Branch is an intriguing fight. Santos might be the most explosive guy Branch has faced and Branch might be the best grappler Santos has faced (Spicely maybe?). Hard to pick a side on off the cuff.

For sure might be the most intriguing fight on the card. 100% agree.

Branch is super gritty. He just couldn't stop Luke from taking him down, and for all his flaws (well, his one glaring flaw of having a weak chin) Rockhold is arguably the last guy at MW (or formerly MW anyway) you want getting top position on you. He's impossible to deal with if he puts you on your back.

Santos is a dynamic, explosive striker who can hurt guys with a variety of strikes. But generally he needs some space to do it, and I think Branch is gonna crowd him from the opening bell to make it a gritty clinch fight if he can. Mix in some level changes and possibly try to take Santos down, but for sure be in his face and not give him room to operate.
 
For sure might be the most intriguing fight on the card. 100% agree.

Branch is super gritty. He just couldn't stop Luke from taking him down, and for all his flaws (well, his one glaring flaw of having a weak chin) Rockhold is arguably the last guy at MW (or formerly MW anyway) you want getting top position on you. He's impossible to deal with if he puts you on your back.

Santos is a dynamic, explosive striker who can hurt guys with a variety of strikes. But generally he needs some space to do it, and I think Branch is gonna crowd him from the opening bell to make it a gritty clinch fight if he can. Mix in some level changes and possibly try to take Santos down, but for sure be in his face and not give him room to operate.
He likes to box for the first minute or so to feel out your timing and distance and he could eat a bad head kick there. The clinch will definitely be his friend. Santos loses a lot of power as the fight goes on so wearing him out and testing his conditioning is the move to make.
 
He likes to box for the first minute or so to feel out your timing and distance and he could eat a bad head kick there. The clinch will definitely be his friend. Santos loses a lot of power as the fight goes on so wearing him out and testing his conditioning is the move to make.

I don’t think he loses a lot of power. I’ve been banking on the guy gassing but he just doesn’t. He’s a freak athlete. He really doesn’t fade much from the opening bell to the end of the fight. I specifically looked for that in tape study last time around

I bought him at -215 and that’s absolutely top of the mark for me, actually more than I wanted to pay

Branch has a clear path to victory here but santos has just continued to impress me with his ability to finish guys. I don’t want to bet against him
 
He likes to box for the first minute or so to feel out your timing and distance and he could eat a bad head kick there. The clinch will definitely be his friend. Santos loses a lot of power as the fight goes on so wearing him out and testing his conditioning is the move to make.

Can’t recall him slowing down. Didn’t he 10-8 Elias in the third?

He does get reckless though. My main concern is him making a mistake and getting subbed.
 
He likes to box for the first minute or so to feel out your timing and distance and he could eat a bad head kick there. The clinch will definitely be his friend. Santos loses a lot of power as the fight goes on so wearing him out and testing his conditioning is the move to make.

Yeah I'm trying to remember exactly how long it took him to start crowding Luke. Luke is similar in his striking to Santos in that he uses kicks a lot and needs space to really be effective. Santos has more power in his hands, but the same principles should apply to what Branch needs to do. The difference is that with Luke the danger always was that he'd get taken down from the clinch and then he was screwed. But with Santos that's not an issue.
 
I don’t think he loses a lot of power. I’ve been banking on the guy gassing but he just doesn’t. He’s a freak athlete. He really doesn’t fade much from the opening bell to the end of the fight. I specifically looked for that in tape study last time around

I bought him at -215 and that’s absolutely top of the mark for me, actually more than I wanted to pay

Branch has a clear path to victory here but santos has just continued to impress me with his ability to finish guys. I don’t want to bet against him

He slows down in terms of how well he moves but he absolutely still carries his power with him.

I can't imagine paying -215 though. I was fine playing Branch +185 (though +205 that I barely missed would have been better LOL).

I cap Santos -150 to -175, somewhere in that neighborhood.
 
Fightpass has been fucking me lately so I haven't watched Santos tape yet. I remember him throwing heat A LOT and I feel like he slowed down a bit in the Elias fight or at least not throwing the same volume. That was also 3 years ago and he's much improved but also hasn't seen a third round since. I agree with @ill800 the value might be gone at -245.
 
Fightpass has been fucking me lately so I haven't watched Santos tape yet. I remember him throwing heat A LOT and I feel like he slowed down a bit in the Elias fight or at least not throwing the same volume. That was also 3 years ago and he's much improved but also hasn't seen a third round since. I agree with @ill800 the value might be gone at -245.

He lost round 1 against Elias, won round 2 and dominated round 3.

I got Santos at -130 though. I wouldn’t touch him at current prices. Branch is definitely the side now.

Edit: FightPass has been having problems for the last week or so. Not just you.
 
Saenz is a D1 wrestler and merab took him down 11 times. His greco roman is legit and he's strong as fuck. Short notice for Simon too.

Taking someone down 11 times and losing the fight speaks to is top control too though, no? Iirc he did absolute shit when he had him down and maybe kept him there for 10 seconds on avg, while getting the worst of the clinch as well.
 
He slows down in terms of how well he moves but he absolutely still carries his power with him.

I can't imagine paying -215 though. I was fine playing Branch +185 (though +205 that I barely missed would have been better LOL).

I cap Santos -150 to -175, somewhere in that neighborhood.
Yea I’d say more in the -180 range. I tried to get him at -190 and it went up to -215. I had to make the decision cause I figured he’d get steamed. I don’t mind paying a little extra for killers like santos. That guy is going to fight for my money I know that much

Branch has jiu jitsu he just rarely utilizes it. Not many subs. He’s more of a control guy. Not very aggressive on the ground. I don’t know that he can hold santos down if he manages to get him there and three rounds is a long time for branch to stay away from santos power

Branch is a solid all around fighter. Can’t hate on plays on him especially around +200
 
Gonna be playing Branch. Tbh I was expecting to get Santos @ +150 and play him there for value, but Santos at -200 with the sheer amount of dumb things he does/has done is hard to swallow.
 
no idea why aljo is the dog.
Yeah. That's perplexing as hell. Johns doesn't have a good win yet, and is a Euro WrestleBoxer that's going to be against somebody with better point striking and better grappling.
 
Yeah. That's perplexing as hell. Johns doesn't have a good win yet, and is a Euro WrestleBoxer that's going to be against somebody with better point striking and better grappling.
The only thing that really bothers me about Aljo is his inability to scramble out of bottom position. If Johns gets top position he could spend a whole round there without Aljo being able to get up. Look at that Aljo vs Barao fight, Aljo couldn't get up in round 1.

Still think Aljo is the better athlete and more skilled fighter, he should be favored. Johns is a over hyped euro prospect and he's only beaten bums.
 
The only thing that really bothers me about Aljo is his inability to scramble out of bottom position. If Johns gets top position he could spend a whole round there without Aljo being able to get up. Look at that Aljo vs Barao fight, Aljo couldn't get up in round 1.

Still think Aljo is the better athlete and more skilled fighter, he should be favored. Johns is a over hyped euro prospect and he's only beaten bums.
Barao is an insanely good grappler. Johns is, most likely, not on Barao's level on the top.
 
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