UFC FN 128 - Barboza vs Lee - Atlantic City

[PuertoRican]

All the value still clearly on KO If you think he finishes though.

That's not how I bet.

I think Lee will win by submission.

Edit: I'm fine with ITD +130 since his submission line is +165.

 

[mkess101]

That's not how I bet.

I think Lee will win by submission.

Edit: I'm fine with ITD +130 since his submission line is +165.

Fair enough. I do think it's probably twice as likely he wins by sub than KO. But since KO pays about 7x the sub line I will roll the dice on KO.

 

[mkess101]

Jamie Varner

IDK, sure?

6 years and 13 fights ago so not sure it has ANY relevance but yeah...

 

[raketmannen]

Barb/Lee FDNGD is only -180. Good value. I think there's a high likelihood of a finish.

Fuck I was looking to bet a couple of units on that but bet365 decided to open it at -250

 

[lilbloaty]

IDK, sure?

6 years and 13 fights ago so not sure it has ANY relevance but yeah...

neither does the dunham or gil fights

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Fuck I was looking to bet a couple of units on that but bet365 decided to open it at -250

It opened -230 on 5D and got bet down to -180 today. Had to jump on it at that price. Credit to @Oblivian for putting the idea out there and making me check the price.

 

[Stunna77]

After reviewing tape, i've decided to go bigger on Leslie Smith than expected.

3.5u Leslie Smith locked in

Aspen "Pudgeball" Ladd is tailor made to get savaged by the middle aged beast that is Leslie Smith. Aspen "Chunker" Ladd is a much slower, more green, less technical Irene Aldana, and look what happened to Aldana. Shes not taking Smith down, Smith is sharper and is going to make her uncomfortable when Smith is the one pressuring.

The lines should be flipped, and Smith should be around -150. I am very happy with the dog price on Smith.

Why are you confident that Ladd won't take Smith down? Ladd has good tds and is a pretty damn good grappler. Smith been taken down plenty in the past..

 

[Sham5916910]

After reviewing tape, i've decided to go bigger on Leslie Smith than expected.

3.5u Leslie Smith locked in

Aspen "Pudgeball" Ladd is tailor made to get savaged by the middle aged beast that is Leslie Smith. Aspen "Chunker" Ladd is a much slower, more green, less technical Irene Aldana, and look what happened to Aldana. Shes not taking Smith down, Smith is sharper and is going to make her uncomfortable when Smith is the one pressuring.

The lines should be flipped, and Smith should be around -150. I am very happy with the dog price on Smith.

Smith tdd sucks dude. I agree leslie wins standing but ladds a beast from top

 

[mkess101]

neither does the dunham or gil fights

Both way more recent than Varner. Esp Gil...Barboza's only had 2 fights since that one LOL. It was less than 2 years ago.

 

[Sham5916910]

Smith tdd not good tho jb

 

[t6p]

Again, Ladd is not a good wrestler. And the only reason you're saying Smith tdd isn't good is cause Nakai scored a few, but Nakai is a powerhouse who outwrestled Miesha Tate. Ladd has no such strength. I'm OK with the risk when its Ladd's only hope and i'm far from convinced it happens, but very convinced on the feet this is a horrible matchup for pudgeball

But no one has really made a sustained effort to take Smith down other than Nakai. Aldana hit an easy, but granted meaningless td at the end of round 3 and Lemos hit an easy trip against the cage in round 1. Smith has a tendency to overextend on her punches which could leave openings for Ladd.

That said, I'm not sold at all on Ladd based on what I've seen so far. I would have liked to bet Smith at her opener but I missed it so passing on the fight now. I can see paths for both girls.

 

[t6p]

Yeah I put nothing into last second td from Aldana, and yeah juiced Brazilian hit that trip but otherwise got dominated in the clinch. That fight along with Ladd's 2 most recent just made me more confident Leslie will win in the clinch. I'm not concerned on Smith over extending cause that happens with opponents she has to stalk down. She won't have to do that vs Ladd. I see it as a similar but easier fight on the feet to the Aldana fight, and Smith looked very sharp there.

I'll eat my loss if Ladd can score tds and control top long enough to win 2 of the 3. Its my only concern. I just really don't see enough from Ladd's clinch and wrestling to be favored at all.

Fair enough. I wish the fight was going to be live bettable.

 

[ill800]

Hooker dec -107

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Lines I like I didnt place any bets yet

No bet Martin Nakurama- I like Martin dec
Simon Dec+168
Ladd wins inside+305 I got her winning by KO1
Cummins+103 I got him winning by Dec
Bahdraruzda+155 wins inisde I got him winning by sub 2
Bibulatov Sasaki- No bet I like Bibulatov by dec
Garcia+130 I got him winning by Dec
Hooker+204 wins inside I got him winning by Sub2
Johns Dec+165
Branch+186- I got him winning by Dec
Willis sherman- No bet I got Willis winningby KO2
Edgar Swanson- No bet I got edgar winning by Dec
Barboza+130- I got barboza winning by dec

 

[null]

This is really chalky, but I hit Not Aspen Ladd Inside the Distance at -425 to win 1u. Leslie Smith is the bigger girl and has only been stopped by TKO once by Jessica Eye when her cauliflower ear exploded and they called for an injury stoppage and once by Cyborg. She has never been submitted.

 

[null]

Lines I like I didnt place any bets yet

No bet Martin Nakurama- I like Martin dec
Simon Dec+168
Ladd wins inside+305 I got her winning by KO1
Cummins+103 I got him winning by Dec
Bahdraruzda+155 wins inisde I got him winning by sub 2
Bibulatov Sasaki- No bet I like Bibulatov by dec
Garcia+130 I got him winning by Dec
Hooker+204 wins inside I got him winning by Sub2
Johns Dec+165
Branch+186- I got him winning by Dec
Willis sherman- No bet I got Willis winningby KO2
Edgar Swanson- No bet I got edgar winning by Dec
Barboza+130- I got barboza winning by dec

Ladd knocking out Smith in round 1 is a very bold prediction.

 

[piglord]

anyone on johns? if so why?

 

[zeckdo]

Hooker dec -107

Hooker has 1 decision in his career and it was in 2011, dude's a finisher, Jim Miller is donezo. Hooker ITD +204.

 

[mkess101]

What % do we apply as the likelihood of each outcome here for the ME? I'm interested to hear some opinions. Here's mine:

Draw >1%
Lee dec 10%
Lee KO 15%
Lee sub 25%
Barboza dec 25%
Barboza KO 20%
Barboza sub 5%

So yeah I guess I sort of see the fight a pick 'em overall. Based on this I'm also on the DNGD train.

There's other value spots in my eyes based on these percentages. Wondering how others are seeing it.