Vincente Luque vs Chad Laprise fight analysis.
I just went over tape on both fighters today.
Both fighters are strikers, so you won't have to worry about any grappling this match, so expect this fight to take place on the feet. Vicente Luque has a 75.5' inch reach and Chad Laprise has a 71' inch reach. Both are orthodox stance fighters.
Initially I was looking to take Chad Laprise as +170 dog but after watching tape, I'm going to pass and hopefully the line drops on Vicente Luque to around -160. He is going to be overmatched. Here is the reasoning why
Watching tape on Vincente Luque you see a really talented striker with really no flaws in his striking, beautiful use of inside/outside leg kicks, crisp jab, so defensively sound, accurate and great forward pressure and understanding of distance and range. He also has that super long reach at 75.5. A 4.5' inch reach advantage is huge in this fight, if Laprise tries to get inside, he is going to get hit with that counter left hook that knocked out Belal Muhhammad. Niko Price who is a great pressure fighter couldn't find any openings against Vincente Luque and was slowly picked apart. Leon Edwards is the prototypical fighter that will beat Luque, someone with a grappling heavy/wrestling approach to wear a striker like Luque down. I was probably one of the few guys on the board that didn't think Sobotta was going to beat Edwards.
Chad Laprise who is a really meat and potatoes stick and move striker has had some really favourable matchups his last few fights, he is a facing a really different beast in Vincente Luque. His fight against Ross Pearson where he lost a decision was concerning, Pearson was chewing up his lead leg and landing the left hook which is one of Luque's specialties and Pearson wasn't even setting them up. I can see Luque chewing up Laprise's leg in this fight or landing a counter left hook and knocking him out. Also as I mentioned before a 4.5' inch reach advantage is really significant especially with a guy that knows how to use it properly.
I hope this breakdown helps anybody betting this fight.