UFC FIGHT NIGHT 129

Vincente Luque vs Chad Laprise fight analysis.

I just went over tape on both fighters today.

Both fighters are strikers, so you won't have to worry about any grappling this match, so expect this fight to take place on the feet. Vicente Luque has a 75.5' inch reach and Chad Laprise has a 71' inch reach. Both are orthodox stance fighters.

Initially I was looking to take Chad Laprise as +170 dog but after watching tape, I'm going to pass and hopefully the line drops on Vicente Luque to around -160. He is going to be overmatched. Here is the reasoning why

Watching tape on Vincente Luque you see a really talented striker with really no flaws in his striking, beautiful use of inside/outside leg kicks, crisp jab, so defensively sound, accurate and great forward pressure and understanding of distance and range. He also has that super long reach at 75.5. A 4.5' inch reach advantage is huge in this fight, if Laprise tries to get inside, he is going to get hit with that counter left hook that knocked out Belal Muhhammad. Niko Price who is a great pressure fighter couldn't find any openings against Vincente Luque and was slowly picked apart. Leon Edwards is the prototypical fighter that will beat Luque, someone with a grappling heavy/wrestling approach to wear a striker like Luque down. I was probably one of the few guys on the board that didn't think Sobotta was going to beat Edwards.

Chad Laprise who is a really meat and potatoes stick and move striker has had some really favourable matchups his last few fights, he is a facing a really different beast in Vincente Luque. His fight against Ross Pearson where he lost a decision was concerning, Pearson was chewing up his lead leg and landing the left hook which is one of Luque's specialties and Pearson wasn't even setting them up. I can see Luque chewing up Laprise's leg in this fight or landing a counter left hook and knocking him out. Also as I mentioned before a 4.5' inch reach advantage is really significant especially with a guy that knows how to use it properly.

I hope this breakdown helps anybody betting this fight.
 
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Praz being overrated by twitter then. Lets see the bully become the bullied. Didnt cope too well against a number of the bigger guys hes faced. Looks great beating shot fighters like burk or 145ers like mads who also took it on short notice (and praz missed weight). Green would have won too if his cardio didnt suck despite praz missing by 5lbs then missing the agreed same day weight and weighing in 7lbs over at 180lbs
 
Sadistics said:
In his 2 UFC fights combined he's defended 21/25 TD attempts, the few times he was taken down he popped right back up. If Barzola can get him down I don't see him holding him there as his top control sucks
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i think we are going to see barzola hit his ceiling sooner rather than later. he's got some good low kicks but i don't rate him as a striker. he's stationary and will stand in front of you, ideal for davis to tee off. barzola dec was my initial lean but i think davis can win this by landing the cleaner strikes, especially if it's new rules.
 
Maia +550 now, gonna have to take a stab on that if I don't like any props for Usman. If we ever see those that is...
 
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Stunna77 said:
Confidence increase on Botehlo, some banned bum calling Kondo easy money who clearly hasn't watched any Botehlo tape besides Pearl fight. Kondo has pillows for hands and fought mostly atomweights while Bohtelo been finishing 125ers. Power and strength difference is going to be massive, Kondo ain't wrestling shit.
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I just taped all of their fights (all of Botelho's available fights and Kondo's pancrase fights as well). And I concur on the power and pillow fist striking. Botelho hits HARD and put away some very solid fighters like Karina Rodriguez. Kondo also predominantly scores on the feet by getting in range and landing punches, and she will get countered and maybe finished by Botelho in one of those moments.

I do disagree with you in the wrestling though. Kondo's last few fights have been a perimeter striking battle (and if she fights like that vs Botelho, she will be smashed), but in other Pancrase fights she implemented a full clinching / fence pushing and wrestling strategy. I think this is really Kondo's only path to victory vs Botelho. However, Botelho is not complacent up against the fence and showed in the Pearl fight and other fights that she will batter you if you put her against the fence so the fence control strategy by Kondo does not seem to be a high percentage path of victory. I do think Kondo has a good enough fence push / double leg takedown to get Botelho down and get some top control time. But I think I am willing to risk that and bet on Botelho because Kondo is going to get hit hard on the feet and often.
 
piglord said:
i think we are going to see barzola hit his ceiling sooner rather than later. he's got some good low kicks but i don't rate him as a striker. he's stationary and will stand in front of you, ideal for davis to tee off. barzola dec was my initial lean but i think davis can win this by landing the cleaner strikes, especially if it's new rules.
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I think alot of people are being fooled about Davis tdd, ocho was undersized in that last fight and Bochniak is not a great offensive wrestler. This the best grappler Davis has ever faced and Barzola has fought better counter wrestlers like Benitez.

I do think Barzola is gonna be exposed when he fights an actual wrestler which he surprisingly hasnt done yet.
I dont like the price much, Davis is a much better athlete than the guys Barzola feasts on, but its a very favorable matchup for him specially because Davis is not a power puncher Barzola can just charge unpunished if things go south.
 
Demian Maia is a little bigger than Kamaru Usman. Maybe I'm crazy and Demian won't be so easily outwrestled by Kamaru? Dominick Reyes is very tall and towers over Jared Cannonier.

 
Dayum. Height discrepancy for cannon looks way bigger in person than on paper.
 
This 5dimes guy is such a pussy.

He releases the over/unders at a snails pace.

And even then, I’m only allowed to win a max of $20 on openers and props.

Fuckery at its finest.
 
I was able to hit Maia/Usman FDNGTD at +105 but fuck the limits

edit: left the "N" out in FDNGTD
 
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Fight Goes Distance/Fight Does Not Go Distance props out on 5Dimes. I like Maia/Usman fight goes 5 round distance at +170.
 
Watching tape on Reyes and cannon

Reyes is tall and athletic. Aggressive pressure style. Limited ufc tape. He gets guys out of there pretty quick, albeit low tier guys. Seems like the more diversive mixed martial artist

Cannon is a striker. A guy who fought at heavyweight. He’s got quick hands, good feints and counters. Definitely has knock out power. Uses kicks. Looks to be improving as far as grappling and utilizes kicks

He had a difficult time dealing with Jan blans jab. He wa easily kept at range and it wasn’t until late in the fight that cannonier was starting to find his range

Very muscular. Can fade if he’s pressed into grappling exchanges.

At -260 I would think people are fading cannonier after loses against blan and Glover, two very tough guys in that division. Much better than anyone Reyes has fought.

There just isn’t enough tape available on Reyes. He’s 8-0. But if he’s already had two fights in the ufc they obviously like him.

Theres value on cannonier. Reyes best path to victory is grappling but will he do it? His aggressive striking style feeds right into cannoniers counter game.

I like what I see from Reyes. He might be able to sub cannon here. Even if I went back and watched his regional fights I would have a hard time justifying -260 and not playing cannon small. We just don’t know how he gameplans or how disciplined he is. We don’t know anything about his chin or his fight iq.
 
ill800 said:
Watching tape on Reyes and cannon

Reyes is tall and athletic. Aggressive pressure style. Limited ufc tape. He gets guys out of there pretty quick, albeit low tier guys. Seems like the more diversive mixed martial artist

Cannon is a striker. A guy who fought at heavyweight. He’s got quick hands, good feints and counters. Definitely has knock out power. Uses kicks. Looks to be improving as far as grappling and utilizes kicks

He had a difficult time dealing with Jan blans jab. He wa easily kept at range and it wasn’t until late in the fight that cannonier was starting to find his range

Very muscular. Can fade if he’s pressed into grappling exchanges.

At -260 I would think people are fading cannonier after loses against blan and Glover, two very tough guys in that division. Much better than anyone Reyes has fought.

There just isn’t enough tape available on Reyes. He’s 8-0. But if he’s already had two fights in the ufc they obviously like him.

Theres value on cannonier. Reyes best path to victory is grappling but will he do it? His aggressive striking style feeds right into cannoniers counter game.

I like what I see from Reyes. He might be able to sub cannon here. Even if I went back and watched his regional fights I would have a hard time justifying -260 and not playing cannon small. We just don’t know how he gameplans or how disciplined he is. We don’t know anything about his chin or his fight iq.
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So I am pretty much on par with you. I got Reyes at -165 early and was going to just play him at those odds. But if you watch one of his amateur fights and really one of the only fights of his (I believe against Burno Casillas) that wasn't over quickly, he showed some striking holes against someone he can't get out early. He showed inability to use his long range throughout a full fight (and that was only a 3 minute 3 round fight). That fight was obviously long ago, but it was one of his few fights that went for a prolonged period and I doubt Cannonier is a guy he will put away quickly. The fight will likely play out and I do not think Reyes can keep him on the outside for 15 minutes.

Watching that fight made me decide to arbitrage the fight given how significant the line changed since my -165 play. If I did not get the arbitrage play, I would likely be playing Cannonier here.
 
Lightbringer said:
So I am pretty much on par with you. I got Reyes at -165 early and was going to just play him at those odds. But if you watch one of his amateur fights and really one of the only fights of his (I believe against Burno Casillas) that wasn't over quickly, he showed some striking holes against someone he can't get out early. He showed inability to use his long range throughout a full fight (and that was only a 3 minute 3 round fight). That fight was obviously long ago, but it was one of his few fights that went for a prolonged period and I doubt Cannonier is a guy he will put away quickly. The fight will likely play out and I do not think Reyes can keep him on the outside for 15 minutes.

Watching that fight made me decide to arbitrage the fight given how significant the line changed since my -165 play. If I did not get the arbitrage play, I would likely be playing Cannonier here.
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Question for ya: you arbing on the same book? It's been talked about in some other threads and doing that puts extra eyes on your account and could lead to you getting limited. Not sure of your gambling experience (in my rookie year myself) but, I thought I would bring it up if you didn't already know.
 
iGnP said:
I was able to hit Maia/Usman FDGTD at +105 but fuck the limits
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Wait you bet fight goes distance or fight does NOT go distance?
 
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