UFC FIGHT NIGHT 129

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Wiktoruspro, May 13, 2018.

  1. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I am prob betting zak and i do not need praz to gas to win this. Ham and stun covered why. Praz fought a shot thiago hes only ufc fight at ww and got ha dled. Yeah praz has improved but hes 5'6 hes not a friggin ww.

    And let us not forget how good zaks top game is
     
  2. Lightbringer

    Lightbringer Yellow Belt

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    I tend to agree with this. Zak also keeps near constant forward pressure on the feet which will probably gas Praz out more and force Praz to shoot poor and panicked takedown attempts. Forward pressure is huge for the judge's eyes too. Im not finished taping yet but from what I have seen so far. Zak is a pretty obvious play.
     
  3. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Maybe im wrong but i remember him on his back once in his ufc tenure against cabral for last two mins of r1
     
  4. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Imo Praz's best shot at a takedown is in space. I doubt he'll be able to single leg or body lock Cummings against the fence. He's too tall (see Bermudez/Fili)

    Different topic: I'm starting to hate my Moggly bet. I paid too much for it and I cant get that Fili ko out of my head. Humberto has some good timing and selection with his kicks. Leads with the knee etc. I think Mogglys stock might be a bit overvalued because of the Mississippi mean beatdown.
     
  5. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Praz weighed 161 against green. Same day was meant to weigh 173 weighed 180. Absutely disgraceful and for me that takes away pretty much any credit you can give him. Huge size adv.
     
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  6. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Knight was sick for that fight too btw
     
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  7. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Confidence decrease :(
     
  8. Ham Socks

    Ham Socks Professional Fighter

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    Green gassed even harder than Prazeres in that fight too.
     
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  9. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    So as I’ve discussed before, when I’m not prepared for openers I make mistakes when I’m rushing to hit lines

    I thought zak Cummings was zak Ottow.

    So I’m doing my tape study now and I’m already 2.5 units in on praz. Im sitting here like man, Cummings is a big welterweight. And I forgot praz had to move up after his last weight debacle which ended up costing me like 3-5 units
    Cause I switched to greene

    So now praz has the opportunity to burn me again if I switch sides and he manages to beat Cummings

    Lol no wonder Cummings got bet up to favorite within seconds

    Edit:Cummings also was defeated by a bathtub in January
     
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  10. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Lol let's hear your thoughts after you tape the right Zak. I bet you notice a bigger guy with way better boxing and pressure.
     
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  11. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    cannon now +200, that seems a bit wide to me.
     
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  12. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    i have a feeling the thread is overwhelmingly going to be on Zak and he's going to come through for us. high five to everyone who got him at pick or better odds. really good situation for him
     
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  13. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    So far, my concern is cardio. He’s a huge welterweight. I don’t want to see a repeat of Desmond green here and see Cummings as the one who ends up gassing.

    Praz shouldn’t be cutting a ton of weight here. I’m guessing he walks around at around 185. We don’t know if he’s going to gas at 170.

    Cummings is a pressure fighter. Praz is a little beast though and he may be able to score takedowns when Cummings over extends

    Three fights in on Cummings I’d say he’s way too big for praz. His chin is solid and he’s strong. Praz has a path to victory here, submission probably being the highest. He’d have to make this a grapplefest to have a chance. Winning two rounds I think is way less likely

    I don’t think welterweight is the place for praz and Shelby is doing him no favors matching him against Cummings

    I think your capping of at least -200 is right and I would’ve love to get him at plus odds
     
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  14. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    from what i remember zak has never had a problem with cardio, despite obviously a massive cut. i think he's a good athlete.
     
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  15. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    I think I heard Hardy comment during one of his recent fights that he slows late
     
  16. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Just rewatched the Ponz/Cummings fight and it was a war, with Cummings still pushing and going toe to toe til the very end. If this was strictly a cardio battle, I would confidently favor Cummings. Praz is almost 37, the weight cut will help, but that little ball of muscle is never going to have great cardio, especially given his age.
     
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  17. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Possibly some payback for missing weight repeatedly? Including two different times for his last fight, which was in Brazil and shoud've in theory helped him make weight. Maybe giving him one of the biggest WW's on the roster will inspire him to hire a nutritionist and/or lose some muscle.
     
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  18. Ham Socks

    Ham Socks Professional Fighter

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    He trains with some good fighters here in KC.

    James Krauss, Jason Witt, Megan Anderson just to name a few.
     
  19. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Dylan Andrews had him on the ground quite a bit on TUF. He was lost on his back. Two obvious things there - it was a long time ago and I believe that was at middleweight. Andrews ended up at WW as well, but Cummings honestly looked pathetic from his back. It was like he had no idea how to work from there or to get up. I think he just structures his game to not get put there. If he does, I'll be fairly surprised if he has any success with Praz.
     
  20. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Great memory, though hes made major strides in that area, earning his black belt June 2016
     

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