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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 129

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Wiktoruspro, May 13, 2018.

  1. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Like you say long time ago...6 years to be exact
     
  2. MixedMartialFarts

    MixedMartialFarts Jiu-Shitsu and Pooey Thai

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    Laprise is my favorite dog so far, if he can get inside and use his hands I think he has a good chance to knock Vicente out but could be FOTN imo.

    I like Rivas but have to do more tape, it's more of a fade on Guido.

    Puelles/Silva and Potelho/Kondo are also fights I'm going to look hard into the dogs. Pantoja may end up being a play but I can see myself passing or maybe betting that the fight doesn't see the scorecards.
     
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  3. Lightbringer

    Lightbringer Yellow Belt

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    Has anyone looked into Saenz / Briones at all?
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    LOL

    Suarez -475
    Grasso +380

    Who is betting Suarez at -450, seriously? Does she win? Yeah, probably. These odds are just stupid though. Another .75u on Grasso I guess. If lines tighten I'll look to maybe buy out or check out Suarez dec prop or something maybe.

    Edit: Also gotta play Cannonier now. Reyes has looked good but I think Cannonier is the best guy he's fought so far for sure. +220 absolutely has value. Cannonier has been in there with legit top guys, Reyes hasn't.
     
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  5. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Cannon will be at a height disadvantage but has the same reach as Reyes (at least according to tapology which can be wong but I'm pretty sure I've seen 77" Reyes vs 77.5" Cannon on the tale of the tape) has better hands, good head movement, good at seeing shots coming. I don't think Reyes punches harder than Shawn Jordan (although that was a short right hand behind the ear that knocked Cannon down). Cannon has good cardio too, Cutelaba poured it on him in round one ESPECIALLY to the body and Cannon didn't look much slower in the third round. Albeit if Reyes (although he hasn't shown a terribly good amount of it) decides to wrestle Cannon to the ground he can most likely keep on top. Reyes looks like he has the ability to stay heavy on top (had some heavy hips in the Kimball fight). I think +220 is worth the risk though. Put 1.5u on him at that price. Also Cannon has a nickname advantage. "Killa Gorilla" > "The Devastator"
     
  6. Orion

    Orion Brown Belt

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    Yeah that's a pretty bad line against someone in Grasso who has an aggressive guard and is pretty strong physically. I don't think this fight will be as easy as people expect. Suarez's recent resume includes taking down Pereira, Amanda "Worst fight IQ ever" Cooper, JJ Aldrich and Kate Jackson. I don't really see how that warrants -475 against someone who would've likely won the Invicta belt had she stayed. I'd cap Suarez around -150 max or worse if Grasso still had that Invicta aggression.
     
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  7. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    Isn't there a stat somewhere that blindly taking the underdog in every wmma fight is profitable? I'm sure i saw it recently though may be dated now
     
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  8. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Taking all dogs between +110-+170 has been profitable for the last like 8 years in Men's.
     
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  9. michi972

    michi972 Green Belt

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    Cummings and Davis are interesting.Maybe Luque
     
  10. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Praz is 0-3 against large LW's/borderline WW's/WW's (Lazaro fight was a robbery)
     
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  11. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

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    What do you guys think about the Saenz - Briones fight?
    Saenz is the rightfull favourite, but I think that the line shouldn't be that wide.
    If Saenz doesn't implement a wrestling strategy, this fight can be very very close.
     
  12. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Burns isn't a large LW? He couldn't even fight on a card because of how big of a cut he was going to have to make. He's fought at WW too. Burkman has fought quite a bit at WW.
     
  13. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Burkman was shot to pieces cmon dude. True about Burns but a big thing there was there was no grappling with a big or bigger guy draining Praz. Praz clearly didn't want to risk going to the mat with Burns so it was a 15 minute kickboxing match. There were lots of grappling exchanges against Lee, Lazaro and Thiago and i expect there to be plenty against Zak.
     
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  14. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    The fact is that both of those guys are large LWs that have fought at WW, yet you failed to include them in a stat that was specifically about that. It would be like throwing out the loss against Lee because he's an absolute beast and way better than Cummings. If you are throwing out a stat, stick with the facts.
     
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  15. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Dog or pass imo. Also hard to trust a 37 year old bantamweight with your money so...pass for me. Might take the over if it's not Tropicana level juiced.
     
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  16. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Lee wasn't the beast he is today back then he was very green he has improved tenfold. And I'm not going to include Burkman he hasn't won a fight in forever that fight means absolutely nothing much like beating short notice 145er Mads Burnell.
     
  17. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Green Belt

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    Any leans to Diego vs Guido ?
    Guido is much older and his gas tank isnt the best either, not mentioning his ground game.
    What do You think ?
     
  18. Ukram

    Ukram Silver Belt

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    KGB

    -ufc debut
    -dealing with freinds passing recently, doing charity fight
    -dealing with usda process, took long time
    -first time fighting outside of country and flying out
    -says macedo taekwondo world champ, while kgb is MT world champ
    both are brown belt bjj also, so match up very well.
    -says macedo does a lot of spinning techniques
    -suggest ashlee bullied her around without much issue
    -trained with aspen ladd @ ufc institute
    -loved ufc performance institute and free food/training etc
    but not been able to use them this camp
    -eating clean, but not started weight cut process yet will do soon
    -leaving on 14th may (2 days ago)
    -wants a finish but in a fashionable finish wants that performance bonus
    does not want to risk doing it losing, will fight smart here.
    -wants a few fights in before maybe title shot



    Luque

    -training @ brazil, has his therapist, s&c coach, training coaches
    -was unable to get fights, contracts were not getting worked out so delayed return
    -manager and coaches keep on top of his training
    -says excited to fight against striker based Chad, style wise
    the fights will like it he says chad will come forward and
    look for the ko.
    -guys he is training with, all unknowns/local fighters and tough
    brazilian kids.
    -family (wife/mother) lives in brazil so has family support
    -says in less then 2 weeks will make weight
    -will have gilburt burns in his corner, helps him out with
    ground game and he helps him out in striking, also his striking
    coach and another coach (henry)
    -says his ground game is good but not needed to show it yet, will
    put on the pressure against chad here and wants a striking war.



    Brandon davis

    -had few plane delays, delays in training but is ok now
    -last fight was short notice against peterson, got win bonus
    -worked with alliance camp, contacts with phil davis and few others
    -training with cowboy (cerroney)
    -sucks to pay for corners plane tickets
    -matches up well against barzola good wrestler, will bang and hit, shoot 22 times
    so its nothing new to him seen it all before. Says barzola
    has improved has improved but says his own wrestling has improved alot.
    -did a ji jitsu tourney with time off, worked with craig jones (bjj black belt)
    few other top guys, worked on the ground game and grappling this camp.
    -does not take time off so went back to training cos he knows
    has to work on improvements.
    -worked at 10th planet ji jitsu, worked with black and brown belts
    -165 this morning, healthy eating so far.
    -expects barzola to strike and mix in wrestling and off the cage
    but will change the game and wrestle and striking also.



    Cannon

    [email protected] the mmalab camp training for this fight
    -has to learn to be much more busier and more technical
    and a more smarter fighter (his last fight)
    -wants to be more aggressive and push the pace and not get taken down
    -matches up well against reyes, not worried his height and reach advantage
    most guys have to take him down. Suggest he has a lower center of gravity
    and he can be quicker against long limb guys especially for the tds.
    -not a big lhw anyhow, says reyes will be almost mw.
    -plans on dropping to mw class
    -trained with guys but unknown name guys, he got a good team and training
    in and his preparation is good.
    -Can't afford to bring in more coaches, not a big deal yet.
    -plans on knocking reyes out, if hes going backwards its gonna happen.
    says he hits very hard, if reyes moves away from him and try and win on points
    he will be there to fight regardless.
    -discusses using right energy and mind set to win
    -does not watch tv/films or other sports, watches tape to improve and learn
    the sport. Even watching martial art films.



    Reyes

    -improvements, worked in denver also worked on his s&c
    and improving his ji jitsu and boxing in general
    -first time fight overseas, is happy to explore new areas
    but says flight times will suck.
    -says cannon is short while hes long, both strikers. Says
    can beat him anywhere he wants really
    -wont be depleted and will be strong for this fight
    -will have his brother in this corner
    -first round feeeling out process, knows cannon is powerful
    expects 3rd round ko but he is quite tough so may go distance
    wants to show case his skills. could be ko or sub of the night.



    Zak Cummings
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX-DghOwjlk
    -out and about with wife/kid and enjoying sunshine
    -had a good weight cut for last cancelled fight but when he
    went to rub sweat off he fell backwards and injured himself
    and fight got cancelled.
    -took one week for recovery, stitches got removed and all good now
    back to training and ready.
    -says praz is use to being short, covering range but he is the bigger
    and stronger guy in there. Says he is much bigger, stronger with height/reach
    he does not see praz having success but knows he can be dangerous.
    -stayed at home worked in denver also, worked with krause and other
    solid guys in gym.
    -kept weight low, is under 200 so its amazing is usually above 200.
    conditioning and health is on point already.
    -travel and elevation won't be a factor, will adjust and make
    whatever work to get weight cut done properly.
    -expects to finish praz, the reach will be too big and he will
    catch him as he comes for a td, his jijitsu is good but so is his
    expects to land some heavy gnp and finish him.
     
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  19. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    I'm gonna put a little something on Canetti round 1 and look to live bet Rivas. Can't trust Rivas at - money and I would want +2xx or better to bet Guido. Just my 2 cents.
     
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  20. Larthus

    Larthus Orange Belt

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    5u on Laprise before the odds shift
     
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