Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Wiktoruspro, May 13, 2018.
Like you say long time ago...6 years to be exact
Laprise is my favorite dog so far, if he can get inside and use his hands I think he has a good chance to knock Vicente out but could be FOTN imo.
I like Rivas but have to do more tape, it's more of a fade on Guido.
Puelles/Silva and Potelho/Kondo are also fights I'm going to look hard into the dogs. Pantoja may end up being a play but I can see myself passing or maybe betting that the fight doesn't see the scorecards.
Has anyone looked into Saenz / Briones at all?
Who is betting Suarez at -450, seriously? Does she win? Yeah, probably. These odds are just stupid though. Another .75u on Grasso I guess. If lines tighten I'll look to maybe buy out or check out Suarez dec prop or something maybe.
Edit: Also gotta play Cannonier now. Reyes has looked good but I think Cannonier is the best guy he's fought so far for sure. +220 absolutely has value. Cannonier has been in there with legit top guys, Reyes hasn't.
Cannon will be at a height disadvantage but has the same reach as Reyes (at least according to tapology which can be wong but I'm pretty sure I've seen 77" Reyes vs 77.5" Cannon on the tale of the tape) has better hands, good head movement, good at seeing shots coming. I don't think Reyes punches harder than Shawn Jordan (although that was a short right hand behind the ear that knocked Cannon down). Cannon has good cardio too, Cutelaba poured it on him in round one ESPECIALLY to the body and Cannon didn't look much slower in the third round. Albeit if Reyes (although he hasn't shown a terribly good amount of it) decides to wrestle Cannon to the ground he can most likely keep on top. Reyes looks like he has the ability to stay heavy on top (had some heavy hips in the Kimball fight). I think +220 is worth the risk though. Put 1.5u on him at that price. Also Cannon has a nickname advantage. "Killa Gorilla" > "The Devastator"
Yeah that's a pretty bad line against someone in Grasso who has an aggressive guard and is pretty strong physically. I don't think this fight will be as easy as people expect. Suarez's recent resume includes taking down Pereira, Amanda "Worst fight IQ ever" Cooper, JJ Aldrich and Kate Jackson. I don't really see how that warrants -475 against someone who would've likely won the Invicta belt had she stayed. I'd cap Suarez around -150 max or worse if Grasso still had that Invicta aggression.
Isn't there a stat somewhere that blindly taking the underdog in every wmma fight is profitable? I'm sure i saw it recently though may be dated now
Taking all dogs between +110-+170 has been profitable for the last like 8 years in Men's.
Cummings and Davis are interesting.Maybe Luque
Praz is 0-3 against large LW's/borderline WW's/WW's (Lazaro fight was a robbery)
What do you guys think about the Saenz - Briones fight?
Saenz is the rightfull favourite, but I think that the line shouldn't be that wide.
If Saenz doesn't implement a wrestling strategy, this fight can be very very close.
Burns isn't a large LW? He couldn't even fight on a card because of how big of a cut he was going to have to make. He's fought at WW too. Burkman has fought quite a bit at WW.
Burkman was shot to pieces cmon dude. True about Burns but a big thing there was there was no grappling with a big or bigger guy draining Praz. Praz clearly didn't want to risk going to the mat with Burns so it was a 15 minute kickboxing match. There were lots of grappling exchanges against Lee, Lazaro and Thiago and i expect there to be plenty against Zak.
The fact is that both of those guys are large LWs that have fought at WW, yet you failed to include them in a stat that was specifically about that. It would be like throwing out the loss against Lee because he's an absolute beast and way better than Cummings. If you are throwing out a stat, stick with the facts.
Dog or pass imo. Also hard to trust a 37 year old bantamweight with your money so...pass for me. Might take the over if it's not Tropicana level juiced.
Lee wasn't the beast he is today back then he was very green he has improved tenfold. And I'm not going to include Burkman he hasn't won a fight in forever that fight means absolutely nothing much like beating short notice 145er Mads Burnell.
Any leans to Diego vs Guido ?
Guido is much older and his gas tank isnt the best either, not mentioning his ground game.
What do You think ?
-dealing with freinds passing recently, doing charity fight
-dealing with usda process, took long time
-first time fighting outside of country and flying out
-says macedo taekwondo world champ, while kgb is MT world champ
both are brown belt bjj also, so match up very well.
-says macedo does a lot of spinning techniques
-suggest ashlee bullied her around without much issue
-trained with aspen ladd @ ufc institute
-loved ufc performance institute and free food/training etc
but not been able to use them this camp
-eating clean, but not started weight cut process yet will do soon
-leaving on 14th may (2 days ago)
-wants a finish but in a fashionable finish wants that performance bonus
does not want to risk doing it losing, will fight smart here.
-wants a few fights in before maybe title shot
-training @ brazil, has his therapist, s&c coach, training coaches
-was unable to get fights, contracts were not getting worked out so delayed return
-manager and coaches keep on top of his training
-says excited to fight against striker based Chad, style wise
the fights will like it he says chad will come forward and
look for the ko.
-guys he is training with, all unknowns/local fighters and tough
-family (wife/mother) lives in brazil so has family support
-says in less then 2 weeks will make weight
-will have gilburt burns in his corner, helps him out with
ground game and he helps him out in striking, also his striking
coach and another coach (henry)
-says his ground game is good but not needed to show it yet, will
put on the pressure against chad here and wants a striking war.
-had few plane delays, delays in training but is ok now
-last fight was short notice against peterson, got win bonus
-worked with alliance camp, contacts with phil davis and few others
-training with cowboy (cerroney)
-sucks to pay for corners plane tickets
-matches up well against barzola good wrestler, will bang and hit, shoot 22 times
so its nothing new to him seen it all before. Says barzola
has improved has improved but says his own wrestling has improved alot.
-did a ji jitsu tourney with time off, worked with craig jones (bjj black belt)
few other top guys, worked on the ground game and grappling this camp.
-does not take time off so went back to training cos he knows
has to work on improvements.
-worked at 10th planet ji jitsu, worked with black and brown belts
-165 this morning, healthy eating so far.
-expects barzola to strike and mix in wrestling and off the cage
but will change the game and wrestle and striking also.
-@ the mmalab camp training for this fight
-has to learn to be much more busier and more technical
and a more smarter fighter (his last fight)
-wants to be more aggressive and push the pace and not get taken down
-matches up well against reyes, not worried his height and reach advantage
most guys have to take him down. Suggest he has a lower center of gravity
and he can be quicker against long limb guys especially for the tds.
-not a big lhw anyhow, says reyes will be almost mw.
-plans on dropping to mw class
-trained with guys but unknown name guys, he got a good team and training
in and his preparation is good.
-Can't afford to bring in more coaches, not a big deal yet.
-plans on knocking reyes out, if hes going backwards its gonna happen.
says he hits very hard, if reyes moves away from him and try and win on points
he will be there to fight regardless.
-discusses using right energy and mind set to win
-does not watch tv/films or other sports, watches tape to improve and learn
the sport. Even watching martial art films.
-improvements, worked in denver also worked on his s&c
and improving his ji jitsu and boxing in general
-first time fight overseas, is happy to explore new areas
but says flight times will suck.
-says cannon is short while hes long, both strikers. Says
can beat him anywhere he wants really
-wont be depleted and will be strong for this fight
-will have his brother in this corner
-first round feeeling out process, knows cannon is powerful
expects 3rd round ko but he is quite tough so may go distance
wants to show case his skills. could be ko or sub of the night.
-out and about with wife/kid and enjoying sunshine
-had a good weight cut for last cancelled fight but when he
went to rub sweat off he fell backwards and injured himself
and fight got cancelled.
-took one week for recovery, stitches got removed and all good now
back to training and ready.
-says praz is use to being short, covering range but he is the bigger
and stronger guy in there. Says he is much bigger, stronger with height/reach
he does not see praz having success but knows he can be dangerous.
-stayed at home worked in denver also, worked with krause and other
solid guys in gym.
-kept weight low, is under 200 so its amazing is usually above 200.
conditioning and health is on point already.
-travel and elevation won't be a factor, will adjust and make
whatever work to get weight cut done properly.
-expects to finish praz, the reach will be too big and he will
catch him as he comes for a td, his jijitsu is good but so is his
expects to land some heavy gnp and finish him.
I'm gonna put a little something on Canetti round 1 and look to live bet Rivas. Can't trust Rivas at - money and I would want +2xx or better to bet Guido. Just my 2 cents.
5u on Laprise before the odds shift
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