UFC FIGHT NIGHT 129

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Wiktoruspro, May 13, 2018.

  1. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    why so confident
     
  2. Larthus

    Larthus White Belt

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    he's been markedly better since returning to welterweight + he trains at tristar which has like a 65% win ratio this year.. going to add him into some parlays with heavy favorites as well
     
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  3. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

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    I like Laprise too, he should win round 2 and 3.
     
  4. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I don't believe he has trained at Tristar for his last few camps, and at WW he has faced Brian Camozzi and Bofando possibly the two worst fighters on the WW roster in recent memory.
     
  5. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Keep bringing that Luque line down boys!
     
  6. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    I think I have to put something on Cannon here out of principle, but I don't feel like I have a good read at all on Reyes. I've only been able to find a few of his fights and that barely adds up to 5 mins of total footage. Reyes's cardio and wrestling are question marks imo, as is how he matches up with a much better striker than he's previously faced. He's fought two of the worst LHWs on the UFC roster (Kimball is more of a blown up MW) and outside of the UFC his opponents had a combined record of 18-26. It's not going to be easy to get Cannon out of there early and Reyes has been out of the first round only once as a pro, going to decision with a 4-5 guy in 2015. Unfortunately I haven't been able to find any tape of that fight.
     
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  7. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Why? Luque semi gassed in one fight and that was when Edwards wrestlefucked him. Laprise won't want any part of the grappling game and Luque carries waaay more pop on the feet. Laprise dec>ML if on that side IMO. Personally I am 2u deep on Luque at an average price of -180.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
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  8. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Blue Belt

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    Why do people like Laprise? He isn’t better at Luque than anything other than maybe cardio and IMO he’s a step down in competition from Niko Price who Luque dominated
     
  9. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Right. The question marks on Reyes are why I'm not going bigger on Cannon. Haven't found any evidence on wrestling but I know Reyes played d-back in college and even went as far as the draft but didn't get picked up. All of Reyes' cage time professionally adds up to less than 15 minutes. @Sadistics mentioned he looks for that fight but can't find it. Neither could I.
     
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  10. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Count me in on not understanding the laprise love. Gotta rate the silent assassins wins over Belal and Price over anything Laprise has done and Laprise is no mike graves (is he still in jail?) and Leon Edwards just out grappled a Dean Lister black belt in Sabotta so he understandably got grapple fucked.
     
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  11. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Count me in on Luque.
     
  12. MixedMartialFarts

    MixedMartialFarts Jiu-Shitsu and Pooey Thai

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    He will likely have the speed advantage and has looked fantastic at 170. He carried his power up as well

    I'm looking forward to entertaining back and forth striking exchanges and Chad can hold his own on the ground as well. I'm not going to lay heavy money on Laprise but I think this fight should be a pick 'em so I'll likely put an average bet on him. His best path to victory is a close decision or he times Luque and gets inside with his accurate combos and tko's him.
     
  13. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    He showed no power at LW besides koing Gouti who has a glass jaw. At WW he dropped Camozzi with a body shot which is more about timing and perfect placement as opposed to power. There was no proof at LW he has power let along at WW. I question his chin - dropped hard by Trinaldo and dropped by Bofando. We've also never really seen Chad's ground game so not sure how you know he can hold his own on the mat.
     
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  14. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Laprise has better boxing. He’s slick

    Around +200 was worth a shot to me.

    Keep in mind I’ve only done tape for the Cummings fight

    I have 11 units tied up on that match because of my phenomenal memory. And of course Cummings price drops after I switch sides
     
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  15. MixedMartialFarts

    MixedMartialFarts Jiu-Shitsu and Pooey Thai

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    You may be correct that his skills are more about timing and speed but they still translate to knockouts, especially at WW, and also I think Luque's only chance to submit or out grapple Chad is if he hurts him or drops him which is possible as you pointed out, but Trinaldo and Galore both have unusual styles of throwing punches. Vicente may be a better striker than them but he's also more easily read by someone as technical as Chad imo.

    I'm not super confident in Chad in any way but I just feel the odds are off because I see this fight as a coin flip.
     
  16. lilbloaty

    lilbloaty Orange Belt

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    wtf you even doing
     
  17. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Suarez -580
    Grasso +440

    Is this real life? Who the hell are you people who keep betting Suarez at these crazy odds LOL?
     
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  18. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Suarez from -110 to -556 lol
     
  19. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    Can someone explain to me why Suarez had value at -190 vs Grasso?

    Not even saying about the current odds.
     
  20. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    because she holds a pretty good wrestling edge and Grasso prob wont finish her with limited power
     

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