UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo, May 6, New Jersey

MixMartialFarts said:
That kid looked not bad as the fight progressed, fast hands and a nice finish.
Khaos should win but I duno about -320. More value on the fat kid at that price.
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I disagree, don't see any reason why Khaos couldn't brute force a win here even if he fails to get a finish. It's not like he's lost to bad competition in the UFC yet.
 
I'm struggling on prizepicks with the Andrade and Burns fights going the distance.. any thoughts?


I'm still steaming after losing the Evloev over 1 takedowns with Bryce pulling out....I had a mortgage payment on it..
 
•Sterling, Burns, and Nzezckeckwu should be bigger favorites.

•Bedoya and Hawes have the best value.
 
carolinagrapple said:
I'm struggling on prizepicks with the Andrade and Burns fights going the distance.. any thoughts?
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I think the Burns fight goes the distance. Both guys can take a beating and neither is a huge finisher. Burns could catch a submission from anywhere but pressure-wrestlers like Belal usually don't give enough space for that to work. As for a KO, I just don't see that from either guy unless they decide to throw technique to the wind and go full Just Bleed.

For the Andrade fight, it really depends on how she fights. Yan even got hit by Dern so she gets hit a lot but Andrade has a tendency to clinch a lot. Personally, I'm going to bet the under that fight so that tells you the direction I took.
 
There's a legitimate chance that Braxton Smith is the worst fighter to ever enter the UFC.

I don't think we should rule it out!
 
Siver! said:
There's a legitimate chance that Braxton Smith is the worst fighter to ever enter the UFC.

I don't think we should rule it out!
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If you want to lay chalk on a fighter like Porter who was brutally knocked out less than three months ago facing a thunderous power puncher, because make no mistake self trained or not thats what he is, then by all means go for it.

I will take the self trained HW whose opponents are leaving on stretchers, at dog odds, every time.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
If you want to lay chalk on a fighter like Porter who was brutally knocked out less than three months ago facing a thunderous power puncher, because make no mistake self trained or not thats what he is, then by all means go for it.

I will take the self trained HW whose opponents are leaving on stretchers, at dog odds, every time.
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I imagine that sometimes it's enjoyable to fire off a bet on a hunch, so I've no issues with someone betting on a R1KO guy.

But I mean, Tafa knows how to actually throw a combination and there's no excess to his punches.

If Porter was fighting Tafa again, yeah, that would be a very, very solid bet to back Tafa to do it again.

But have you seen this Braxton guy?

He looks like he's trying to take out spacecraft.
 
MixMartialFarts said:
That kid looked not bad as the fight progressed, fast hands and a nice finish.
Khaos should win but I duno about -320. More value on the fat kid at that price.
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let me give you a proper reply. Rolando lost the 1st rnd and then finished the guy in rnd 3. Struggling to beat a guy with that many ko and sub losses and then taking 3 rounds to finish him is a sign of low skill. That 40 year old get beat on average around 1-2 rnds yet took Rolando 3.

deductive logic. Kalinn would have sparked that 40 year old in under 30 seconds. The skill gap is that wide. If he was on shaky legs twice to a lesser skilled opponent twice. Now he’s going to fight a guy whom put the lights out from Morono and Abdul in R1 . simple to see how this fight likely ends.


and lastly the kid just looks very unathletic and non explosive. You can’t just Homer Simpson yourself a win with Khaos. Not someone you just eat punches from.
Georges Hefner said:
Petr Yan would smoke Cejudo, don’t let recency bias clog ur brain
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Cejudo is a good fighter don’t see how you can be that sure. His wrestling is better than Yan’s. I’m sure Alja can get it done however it’s going to get sweaty as the fight progresses further.
 
I might be reaching here, but I'm questioning the cardio of Aljo a bit. I'm basing this of two things.
1 his physique. The guy is absolutely massive and shredded. My gut reaction to this is always that they must have bad cardio.
2. First fight against Yan. He looked dead tired in that fight. You could argue that he then went 5 rounds with Yan and looked fine. But that was basically the perfect fight for him, where he could backpack Yan for long periods of time.

I think if the fight against Cejudo doesn't take place on the ground with Aljo in a favourable position, Aljo will gas. There is a scenario where it's competitive and high paced for 2-3 rounds and then Aljo starts to look more and more tired. Shots are getting sloppy and he is winging wild punches.

I think i finally picked side in this fight... going with Cejudo... Razor close fight though.
 
Siver! said:
I imagine that sometimes it's enjoyable to fire off a bet on a hunch, so I've no issues with someone betting on a R1KO guy.

But I mean, Tafa knows how to actually throw a combination and there's no excess to his punches.

If Porter was fighting Tafa again, yeah, that would be a very, very solid bet to back Tafa to do it again.

But have you seen this Braxton guy?

He looks like he's trying to take out spacecraft.
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I have watched all of Braxton's fights, other than his professional debut, and I feel good about getting him at +155.

I am betting him because I cap the fight at -110 on both sides and I can get Braxton at +155 not because of a hunch. If Porter was currently lined at +155 I would be backing him not Braxton. I bet the line not the fighter.

Braxton's technique looks fine to me for the level of opponent he is fighting. In this specific spot the most important thing is how well the power puncher (Braxton) can cut off the cage and how well his opponent (Parker) moves. I know Braxton has the ability to effectively cut off the cage because I saw him do so against the best opponent he has fought:



Braxton entered at an angle, boxed in his opponent, and the right hand he threw knocked his opponent unconscious on impact. I don't believe Parker moves well enough laterally nor possess the speed to get out of the way of Braxton.

I may be wrong, Parker could certainly catch him coming in, but I don't have to be right 50% of the time for the bet to be profitable at +155. Thats why it is a good bet.
 
I Like Marina Rodriguez vs Jandiroba. I think Virna goes hard on r1 and may even get the round, but won't be able to keep the same pace on r2 and r3 and will be pieced up on the feet on her way to lose a decision.

I also like Braxton Smith @ underdog odds. Porter is trash and doesn't have any power.
 
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Also like Belal + plus odds. He has better cardio and can outvolume burns late in the fight. Burns is more explosive and may be stronger but he just love to eat jabs in every fight.
Belal by decision is my pick.
 
Stat_Collector said:
let me give you a proper reply. Rolando lost the 1st rnd and then finished the guy in rnd 3. Struggling to beat a guy with that many ko and sub losses and then taking 3 rounds to finish him is a sign of low skill. That 40 year old get beat on average around 1-2 rnds yet took Rolando 3.

deductive logic. Kalinn would have sparked that 40 year old in under 30 seconds. The skill gap is that wide. If he was on shaky legs twice to a lesser skilled opponent twice. Now he’s going to fight a guy whom put the lights out from Morono and Abdul in R1 . simple to see how this fight likely ends.

and lastly the kid just looks very unathletic and non explosive. You can’t just Homer Simpson yourself a win with Khaos. Not someone you just eat punches from.

Cejudo is a good fighter don’t see how you can be that sure. His wrestling is better than Yan’s. I’m sure Alja can get it done however it’s going to get sweaty as the fight progresses further.
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I just started watching it from where it was timestamped from and didn't research the guy he was fighting. I didn't think the kid looked that bad. Khaos should win, but would I put money on him at -320? Hell no.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Reconsider. Look up Hawes vs Daron Winn.

Then ask yourself. Would Ikram have eaten those same punches from Deron Winn?
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I don't think that matters, I think the question here is can Ikram get Hawes down. Hawes should be the sharper striker.
 
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