I like a lot the Over 1,5 Moraes/Chagas (+110 or @2.10 for me brazilian that use decimal odds).
Because both guys are especialist in bjj (both bjj black belt), but Moraes and Chagas training in local very rivals muay thai gyms in Curitiba (Moraes on Evolução Thai and Chagas on Noguchi Team), IMO they will have proof striking game for other and i dont see Ko in stand battle in this fight, because Moraes and Chagas have good chin and low/médium power. Chagas have many Ko's in your card, but against poor opponents, against Sergio that have good chin, dont believe. Also, dont believe that Sergio Ko's Chagas. If this fight go to the ground, Moraes is better, but Chagas have bjj enough to defense IMO.
I will put 1 unit on this over 1,5
ps. Sorry my english, im brazilian and i just want help all here. If anybody want infos any brazilians fighters (any brazilian event/fighter UFC, Wsof, Bellator, KSW, M1, One, Invicta or others events) I can help all here. Im mma bettor and love this sport since 1988 (Valetudo era, close gyms, modality against modality, no rules, no gloves, illegal fights on city, i loved this time).
Exemple: Last saturday i make good money on Medeiros against Aline Serio (brazilian fighter), medeiros shes good fighter and Aline is regional fighter with medium striking game just, poor TDD, poor bjj, shes not Invicta level. Easy win to Medeiros and good money to me!