UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

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Err, you want to play parlays when the favorites have value (and even then it's better to play them straight as the books take some value just for parlaying).... last event was a great parlay event.

No I mean the favourites who have no value SU such as Alves, Santos, etc.
 
Noooooo!!! Had 3u on Hall @ +250

no no NOOOOO

just read Silva is out.. meaning my Hall +275 (hwo i favored) is going to waste......

200.gif


Ugh that's the worst.
 
I came here looking for this! wtf is going on with this line? -225 was a fair price, -145 is a bargain!.

I don't see how Miocic wins this..

Well, he wins if he can outbox werdum for 25 mins and stay away from the ground etc..

Not impossible, but I think he has to fight a perfect fight
 
I think someone hit the nail on the head forgot who said it but Silva vs Hall would have just been an staring contest.
 
What do you think of Trinaldo?

Very good solid all round fighter, improved his mma game as well and fight iq and understands how to win rounds, he has real power in his punches and kicks (3x kickboxing champ) and knows when to mix in take downs or counter, his last fight against pearson was great he was able to do enough to still look better each round.
 
Agree about alves main route to win is via a sub, bam bam is tough as nails so If alves does not sink in one of those uber chokes it feels like it may go to decision.
 
John Lineker vs. Rob Font
Correct me if im wrong, but it looks like a couple of people are leaning Rob Font. I think there is great value in Font, but I still gonna end up betting under or Lineker. Here's why:

The first obvious reason is the "hometown advantage". This crowd will go crazy every time one of their fighters are connecting and as we have seen before in Brazil the judges will be affected by this. This could certainly also be a FOTN potential. Lineker has met and beat better competition than Rob Font. Yes, Font is the CES champ, but he'll still haven't fought the same UFC kaliber competition as Lineker. Font has to stay on the outside without getting lurked in to a brawlfest by Lineker. I would compare this fight to Lineker vs. Mccall movement wise. Mccall was on his bicycle pretty much all the time and he is faster than Font. Still he got caught plenty of times in the pocket because of Linekers pace. Lineker has evolved his ground game and has a mean guillotine as well. His TDD is also pretty decent. Font should have the size advantage but I really don't know how Font is winning this fight. He'll have to stick and move, but I don't think he will be able to do that for three rounds. Lineker only need to connect one of those haymakers and he has 15 minutes to do that. When you really think about Lineker has just been more impressive.

I find great value in the under this fight. Both fighters are looking to KO each other early and both are able to do that. Font has to watch out, even if he connects on Lineker, Lineker is still very dangerous. Besides that Lineker has that "Kill or Die" attitude as we saw against Rivera. (pretty much every fight)

2u Under 1.5 @ +110
3u
Lineker ML -220
Parlay fodder: Fight won’t go 3 round distance @ -260

Sorry for the bad english - English is not my primary language :)

Nice write up and do agree was about to post similar thoughts myself after watching font and lineker, its a very close fight although I do feel Font maybe able to do what Mcall could not do and keep the same foot work and speed for r2 or r3 to clinch a decision here or 2 rounds in the bag.

I did initially glance over fonts record but after seeing tape can clearly see font does have good speed, foot work and defence, its quite clear he also is creative in closing the distance to land his own and get out quick similar to Mcall.

Lineker plants his feet and lands solid counter power strikes so no doubt font will find it hard and his chin will be tested. But I also feel due to Fonts chin and defensive style which in his last 2 fights looked good he maybe able to sneak a decision here with more volume and work, I think it also goes to decision.
 
No I mean the favourites who have no value SU such as Alves, Santos, etc.

I don't understand your reasoning.

If a favorite has no value SU, parlaying them will not miraculously give them value. If you parlay them with a favorite that does have value, and that ends up giving the parlay as a whole value, then you are better off playing the second one SU.
 
Leo Leite possible replace to Anderson Silva.

Hall by decision IMO.

IF Leite: Hes good judô, good bjj, good chin, poor striking game and poor cardio.
 
I don't understand your reasoning.

If a favorite has no value SU, parlaying them will not miraculously give them value. If you parlay them with a favorite that does have value, and that ends up giving the parlay as a whole value, then you are better off playing the second one SU.
Honestly idk how this works too much but what I do know is parlaying favorites I like that are too expensive has been paying off greatly. Alves and Santos are the L word to me, why not make use of that somehow? And the best way seems to be parlaying them.
 
Honestly idk how this works too much but what I do know is parlaying favorites I like that are too expensive has been paying off greatly. Alves and Santos are the L word to me, why not make use of that somehow? And the best way seems to be parlaying them.
Nooo not the L word! The jinx is in, ABANDON BETS!!!
 
Leo Leite possible replace to Anderson Silva.

Hall by decision IMO.

IF Leite: Hes good judô, good bjj, good chin, poor striking game and poor cardio.

yea leite is a good replacement, solid dude. like you said, ground specialist

Halls off the card completely. A report said Anderson will be back training in 4-6 weeks so I think this would be a perfect bout to complete the main card of 200.

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/5/11/11656276/uriah-hall-of-ufc-198-fight-card

nevermind, then!
 
btw siver is out against penn at 199 if no one has seen the news
 
I don't understand your reasoning.

If a favorite has no value SU, parlaying them will not miraculously give them value. If you parlay them with a favorite that does have value, and that ends up giving the parlay as a whole value, then you are better off playing the second one SU.

Parlaying big favourites is my bread and butter tactic and has paid off very handsomely for me over the years.
 
I like a lot the Over 1,5 Moraes/Chagas (+110 or @2.10 for me brazilian that use decimal odds).

Because both guys are especialist in bjj (both bjj black belt), but Moraes and Chagas training in local very rivals muay thai gyms in Curitiba (Moraes on Evolução Thai and Chagas on Noguchi Team), IMO they will have proof striking game for other and i dont see Ko in stand battle in this fight, because Moraes and Chagas have good chin and low/médium power. Chagas have many Ko's in your card, but against poor opponents, against Sergio that have good chin, dont believe. Also, dont believe that Sergio Ko's Chagas. If this fight go to the ground, Moraes is better, but Chagas have bjj enough to defense IMO.

I will put 1 unit on this over 1,5


ps. Sorry my english, im brazilian and i just want help all here. If anybody want infos any brazilians fighters (any brazilian event/fighter UFC, Wsof, Bellator, KSW, M1, One, Invicta or others events) I can help all here. Im mma bettor and love this sport since 1988 (Valetudo era, close gyms, modality against modality, no rules, no gloves, illegal fights on city, i loved this time).
Exemple: Last saturday i make good money on Medeiros against Aline Serio (brazilian fighter), medeiros shes good fighter and Aline is regional fighter with medium striking game just, poor TDD, poor bjj, shes not Invicta level. Easy win to Medeiros and good money to me!
 
I'm eyeing a

Santos
Trinaldo
Cyborg
Werdum
Anderson

Parlay

200 wins 720
 
I like a lot the Over 1,5 Moraes/Chagas (+110 or @2.10 for me brazilian that use decimal odds).

Because both guys are especialist in bjj (both bjj black belt), but Moraes and Chagas training in local very rivals muay thai gyms in Curitiba (Moraes on Evolução Thai and Chagas on Noguchi Team), IMO they will have proof striking game for other and i dont see Ko in stand battle in this fight, because Moraes and Chagas have good chin and low/médium power. Chagas have many Ko's in your card, but against poor opponents, against Sergio that have good chin, dont believe. Also, dont believe that Sergio Ko's Chagas. If this fight go to the ground, Moraes is better, but Chagas have bjj enough to defense IMO.

I will put 1 unit on this over 1,5


ps. Sorry my english, im brazilian and i just want help all here. If anybody want infos any brazilians fighters (any brazilian event/fighter UFC, Wsof, Bellator, KSW, M1, One, Invicta or others events) I can help all here. Im mma bettor and love this sport since 1988 (Valetudo era, close gyms, modality against modality, no rules, no gloves, illegal fights on city, i loved this time).
Exemple: Last saturday i make good money on Medeiros against Aline Serio (brazilian fighter), medeiros shes good fighter and Aline is regional fighter with medium striking game just, poor TDD, poor bjj, shes not Invicta level. Easy win to Medeiros and good money to me!
Thanks, been looking for a degenerate way to play this fight. Gonna go with the over 1.5 aswell
 
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