The War Room Bet Thread V3

[Throttlehead]

Trump just laid 13 billion dollars of socialism on farmers today (because of his tariff mistake). I wonder if they take it, and now agree with social programs. Do Trumpsters like socialism?

 

[HomerThompson]

@waiguoren

 

[waiguoren]

Seeing that half the WR is convinced that Carter Page is a Russian agent. And since he’s been under surveillance for like 3 years. Let’s get a bet going

I bet he is not convicted of ANY crime related to Russia and does not plead to any crime involved with Russia. End date would be the conclusion of the Mueller investigation

Looks like no one has the courage to risk anything to defend their hysterical posts.

 

[Jack V Savage]

@Lead:

Wait so Obama policies did have an effect? Cool

2.9 it is

Let's say three-month sig bet between me and SBJJ that full-year real GDP growth for this year will be 2.9% or lower. I'd be fine with taking either the initial estimate or the first revision, though we should clarify in advance which number will be used.

 

[senri]

@Lead:



Let's say three-month sig bet between me and SBJJ that full-year real GDP growth for this year will be 2.9% or lower.

You know what to do Mr Savage. Eventually you will gape towards your calling. It is only a matter of time...

 

[Jack V Savage]

You know what to do Mr Savage. Eventually you will gape towards your calling. It is only a matter of time...

I explained my thinking in the other thread:

I offered the bet. Real GDP is up 2.8% YOY in the most recent quarter, and it was worse in Q1. I don't think presidents have anything to do with economic growth generally, but considering that some of Q3 growth was pulled forward to avoid tariffs, it looks likely that the growth rate will slow in the back half of the year. If trade wars continue, that will also put a drag on the numbers. Seems unlikely but not impossible that annual growth will top 2.9%, while SBJJ seems convinced that Trump has magical powers. So I'm betting against that.

SBJJ's thinking just seems to me that because his party is in the WH, GDP growth will be higher.

 

[SBJJ]

I explained my thinking in the other thread:



SBJJ's thinking just seems to me that because his party is in the WH, GDP growth will be higher.

Bet is on. 1st revision

Are you aware you responded to yourself or did you mess up accounts?

 

[Jack V Savage]

Bet is on. 1st revision

Are you aware you responded to yourself or did you mess up accounts?

???

 

[SBJJ]

???

You responded to yourself as if 2 different people. Lol

 

[nac386]

You responded to yourself as if 2 different people. Lol

He said that he explained something in another thread, and then quoted what he said in that thread. It was just a way to not rewrite something he had written elsewhere.

 

[Jack V Savage]

He said that he explained something in another thread, and then quoted what he said in that thread. It was just a way to not rewrite something he had written elsewhere.

Yeah, I thought it was pretty clear.

 

[senri]

I explained my thinking in the other thread:



SBJJ's thinking just seems to me that because his party is in the WH, GDP growth will be higher.

Very understandable and quite delicious. You will become what you are meant to be under the guise of the magnificent Nexus... Let it flow through your moist body eloquently...

 

[Jack V Savage]

Very understandable and quite delicious. You will become what you are meant to be under the guise of the magnificent Nexus... Let it flow through your moist body eloquently...

It's flowing. Glad to see that I'm going to keep my throne.

 

[senri]

It's flowing. Glad to see that I'm going to keep my throne.

Yes....Only a matter of time...

 

[Lead]

@Lead:



Let's say three-month sig bet between me and SBJJ that full-year real GDP growth for this year will be 2.9% or lower. I'd be fine with taking either the initial estimate or the first revision, though we should clarify in advance which number will be used.

Bet is on. 1st revision

Are you aware you responded to yourself or did you mess up accounts?

So can assume it would be titled here as "(second estimate)"?

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm

 

[Jack V Savage]

So can assume it would be titled here as "(second estimate)"?

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm

The second estimate, though I'm seeing just QOQ quarterly changes on the link, while we're looking at YOY annual changes.

 

[Lead]

The second estimate, though I'm seeing just QOQ quarterly changes on the link, while we're looking at YOY annual changes.

I think it's combined with the fourth quarter reports. See "Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2017 (second estimate)"

The only thing I'm confused about is in that report this:

2017 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.3 percent in 2017 (that is, from the 2016 annual level to the 2017 annual level),
compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2016 (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in 2017 primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed
investment, and exports. These contributions were partly offset by a decline in private inventory
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP from 2016 to 2017 reflected upturns in nonresidential fixed investment and
in exports and a smaller decrease in private inventory investment. These movements were partly offset
by decelerations in residential fixed investment and in state and local government spending. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, accelerated.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $761.7 billion, in 2017 to a level of $19,386.2 billion,
compared with an increase of 2.8 percent, or $503.8 billion, in 2016 (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in 2017, compared with an increase
of 1.0 percent in 2016 (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase
of 1.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared
with an increase of 1.8 percent (appendix table A).

During 2017 (measured from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2017), real GDP
increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent during 2016. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent during 2017, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during
2016 (table 7).

What am I missing here? It looks like they say two different numbers for the same thing (2.3 and 2.5)

 

[Jack V Savage]

I think it's combined with the fourth quarter reports. See "Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2017 (second estimate)"

The only thing I'm confused about is in that report this:


What am I missing here? It looks like they say two different numbers for the same thing (2.3 and 2.5)

Full year vs Q4 annualized. We're looking at the full year.

 

[Lead]

Full year vs Q4 annualized. We're looking at the full year.

Ah, I get it now rereading it. I'll post something later to get this set.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Ah, I get it now rereading it. I'll post something later to get this set.

It's funny because I really think that GDP is inherently unpredictable, but this will be the second bet I've made on it (the other one predates this thread, when Greoric predicted growth would be negative in 2015). Just reflects how cults in Greoric's case or partisanship in SBJJ's melts people's brains.