My UFC 156 Bets - Post Yours

[RP3X]

Been watching tape on Woodley and Hieron, I have always felt the fight between hieron and the burger was close, felt hieron out striked jake even and felt he may have got the nod. Always liked hieron since askren close fight though.

But Woodleys style is a bit different, hes a NCAA Division wrestler and uses his bjj and ground skills well with his boring lay n pray style and top control very well, I think the game plans simple hierons got ttd but he can get taken down by better wrestlers, even jake was able to do so.

Hierons got the better footwork and a better technical striker but I feel he does not do much damage, perhaps at 36 time is not on his side, his last knock out was 4 years ago.

I feel Woodley sadly gets his boring style going, his top control and purple bjj belt and wrestling and fact hes a very strong powerful guy I feel he will stop hieron in his tracks, if hieron gets back up he will be holding back and concerned about take down thus less leg kicks, more jabbing with caution from the outside I feel, woodley can still land his leg kicks and power punches to keep him at bay. All woodley has to do is get his take downs and gnp and top control to steal a guida approved decision

 

[EzFlyer]

Here are my thoughts on the Bellator LW tourney pre odds (first Bellator card of the season I project to be particularly interested in from a betting perspective)

Brooks, Michel, Woodard, De Lorenzi

Michel is a kickboxing champ. He has very tight defense and good setups on O. The biggest difference between Sarnavskiy and Michel striking wise is D. Sarnavskiy will stand there in the pocket carelessly with his head in the air. And from distance, they both like that front kick, but Michel's is even tighter. Maybe Sarnavskiy can win by utilizing the wrestling he showed vs. Hervey. But Michel has solid TDD and I thought he beat Weedman who tried to wrestle him. This is the toughest fight to call.

Woodard I like over Rickels, because Cupcake has the wrestling advantage, and on top his gnp is devastating. On the feet, I know Rickels KO'ed Smith, but he hasn't shown a lot of power throughout his career. I think Woodard is the more powerful and aggressive guy, and is sneaky technical.

Tirloni I've been a believer in for a while, but he got a tough draw here. Brooks looks like a budding star. I think he can win the fight wherever it goes, and possibly be Bellator's next Chandler.

And De Lorenzi I like to pull the upset against Patricky, because Patricky can't use his size here, with De Lorenzi being a bullish former ww, he's the smarter fighter, and he has better wrestling.

I'm inclined to think that 3 of those picks will open as dogs, and the other around even, so if I play all 4, and get half right even, I should profit.

I think it's going to be an incredible night of fights in an incredible week of MMA. Can't wait!!

was hopin you'd chime in on bellator, JSP you know you're my resident bellator tail, if i don't have conviction about my own picks

wow @ your concerns for sarnavskiy.. i thought he had a fairly easy draw in michel who will let sarnavskiy strike.. and sarnavskiy i think can get td's if he needs to, too, he's got ground edge probably... and he showed against hervey that he'll take guys down if he thinks he has an edge there -- i'm more confident in sarnavskiy than you here but i'll take your words as cautionary tape etc

yea i was thinking about woodard, rickels is very big for 155, very durable... but woodard showed just how awesome he can be on the ground against patricky pitbull... i think i'll take him if close odds

wow @ brooks praise.. have you seen brooks outside of the kitaoka fight? i don't think i have. he looked AWESOME in it, but like you said, tirloni's got skills. good tdd, very good jits, good hands... way different fight than kitaoka...

wow @ picking de lorenzi over pitbull, too, i suspect you'll get NICE +odds.. i'm not familiar with him, it was a dark bout on that card, i believe (under hale-santos, shamwow-richman, lima-ortiz, and ford-baker)

 

[EzFlyer]

I love Fitch. I just think Maia matches up well with him. I wouldn't bet Fitch at -175.

joe welcome to the betting threads btw

my plan for this fight is probably to bet maia soon, at +150 (or better), and then live bet fitch if i think it's close after maybe 1.5 rounds.. especially if maia starts to slow down.

if maia gets fitch in the positions erick silva did, maia will finish.

i truly believe w/all my being tho: fitch will win rd 3 if it gets there. so maia needs to win the first two rounds if he can't sub him before the 10 minute mark

 

[EzFlyer]

Lil Nog at +350!!!!!!!!!!

Rashad can't take a punch anymore. The guy is on queer street every time he gets tagged and Lil Nog is going to tag him. Rashad will not take Lil Nog down either.

$$$$$$

Because he gets rocked every single time? Get real. He has been hurt by Thiago Silva, Rampage, Jones, and finished by Machida. All 4 of them hit hard, Lil Nog got taken down by Jason Brilz. Yes he has good TDD, but it has eventually failed him against wrestlers ala Phil Davis & Ryan Bader.

you guys know i hug the nog's nuts like they're wearing flyers jerseys.. but i'm not sure what edole's on about here. rashad is a clear and deserving favorite.

lilnog's got great double leg tdd, but as soon as phil davis, for example, starting mixing up his takedowns, he had success. lilnog might have the hands edge, but he's not subbing rashad imo, and definitely not from bottom. lilnog's guard has turned pretty poor imo, compared to what it used to be. he wants to stand and box. he's fighting one dimensionally.

 

[joed5655]

joe welcome to the betting threads btw

my plan for this fight is probably to bet maia soon, at +150 (or better), and then live bet fitch if i think it's close after maybe 1.5 rounds.. especially if maia starts to slow down.

if maia gets fitch in the positions erick silva did, maia will finish.

i truly believe w/all my being tho: fitch will win rd 3 if it gets there. so maia needs to win the first two rounds if he can't sub him before the 10 minute mark

Thanks!
I think Maia will take two close rounds with positional grappling after some not so technical kick boxing and creative td:s. Then he'll gas and Fitch takes the third.

Or...k1 Maia vs k1 Fitch and hen I don't have a clue.

 

[EzFlyer]

Woodley needs to be a better striker than Hieron in this case to win. It would be a different matter if Hieron stood in front of his opponents, then he'd be more prone to getting taken down in part based on the dangerousness of his opponent's striking. But he's circling to avoid takedowns. Can Woodley match his movement to stop him from getting angles on him? I don't think so. Hieron's the quicker man, unless he's aged rapidly since his last fight.

With Green I was more wondering if he could avoid TD's because I know he's got the better strike game than Volkmann. I don't think Volkmann has to worry too much about Green getting subs from the bottom. Sass has the best bottom sub game in the division for my money.

JSP i might be betting hieron, too, especially if +odds, but i think you're underestimating t-wood's td's. i know exactly where you're coming from with hieron, and his tdd, etc.. like i said i might be betting him!! but i could also VERY EASILY see this being ANOTHER close decision loss for hieron, one of the many he keeps having. he's like the anti-costa phillippou.

(cause philippou knows exactly how to win rounds.. without doing a ton. he just knows how to edge rounds... cept of course the 1st round vs boetsch heh)

 

[EzFlyer]

OMFG. is that nog doing the gundamgangdum whatever thing? lol!!!

 

[joed5655]

Arousing yet wildly disturbing and cute. All in one.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Outside of a one-legged Travis Browne, when was the last time Bigfoot caught someone in the stand-up? It's a lot of juice but I'm having a hard time believing Overeem can't win 5 out of 6 fights. The only place where he really has to worry is playing the bottom game with Bigfoot. Can Silva get the fight to the ground?

vvv: Yeah, I forgot about Werdum getting dropped. Fedor was doing okay in the stand-up. It was the second round where Bigfoot dragged him down and went full donkey kong on him.

Well, like you said, he cracked Werdum, and that one legged Brown was getting roughed up long before he was hobbled. And I hate the way the Fedor win is just so casually swept under the rug; it seems that a mixture of BF's size and Fedor's depreciating value has coupled to devalue the quality of BF's win. Indeed, BF was much larger than Fedor, but since when was this ever an issue? Fedor had long feasted on giants such as Semmy Schilt, Heath Herring, Mark Hunt, Brett Rogers, Hong Man Choi, and Tim Sylvia. What's more, it is brushed off so nonchalantly that BF was able to take Fedor down and control him despite all others failing to so, even stud wrestlers such as Matt Lindland, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman Additionally, BF was able to out grapple Fedor although Nogueira, a much better ground fighter failed to do so three times.

BF gets almost no respect for this win, people act is if he defeated a 45 y/o Fedor who fought w/ a torn ACL. Fac is, BF bested the best HW ever and he did so w/ relative ease.

Look, I too anticipate Overeem beating Bigfoot, but to pretend as if BF is a 4-1 dog to a fighter who has been TKO's 7 times, and who is coming off a year long suspension is just absurd to me. Certainly BF is not that quick, but either is Overeem. i wasn't that long ago that Werdum was landing almost everything he threw on Reem. A heavy-handed BF needs all but one clean shot to crumble the Reem.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Looks like an awesome party, wish I'd been invited. :icon_sad:

 

[PuertoRican]

good call me too. landy is the key to the avs (along with varlamov obv).

i'm actually gonna do something i practically never do tonight, too:

i'm betting on columbus.

dallas had a 15 hour travel fiasco after their last game and jagr is playing hurt. yes, they have benn back, but who knows how his skating legs will be tonight in his first game.

k so 1u each:
boston
columbus (zomg)
oilers
kings
and u5.5 on phx-nashville. jesus betting all 5 games again, lol. i'll never learn. i'll go 3-2 and break even lol.

My Picks

Boston Bruins > Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars > Columbus Blue Jackets
Nashville Predators > Phoenix Coyotes
Colorado Avalanche > Edmonton Oilers
Vancouver Canucks > Los Angeles Kings

 

[macphee]

So what is a fair line for Overeem? How many times out of ten does he beat Silva? I wasn't belittling the Fedor win, I was just pointing out that Bigfoot's stand-up isn't that great. He gets most of his work done on the ground and Overeem is REALLY hard to take down. Werdum and Lesnar never came close.

Edit: Bigfoot landed a few leg kicks before Browne's knee gave out. It wasn't as dominant as some people remember.

 

[Goreds1994]

I'd say he beats Bigfoot 8 times out of 10 personally. He can land a shot though, and if he gets on top, he has a huge advantage.

 

[electricute]

took a boston +dallas + nashville parlay. $10 to win $50

also took o5.5 on the phx/nas game (sorry EZ, not impressed with either goalie)

also took overeem quiet large

 

[PuertoRican]

Bruins made that much closer than it should have been. Got my win in a straight up bet and the -1 1/2 bet, and another straight up bet at -110 before the third period started, but wasted $10 after the 2nd period was over because I was thinking it would go to OT.

 

[electricute]

took a boston +dallas + nashville parlay. $10 to win $50

also took o5.5 on the phx/nas game (sorry EZ, not impressed with either goalie)

also took overeem quiet large

i suck at this stuff

dallas blew their lead, nashville already down 1-0

 

[UfcToronto]

i put 100 to win 83 on the bruins, in the 3rd period. Glad I made that bet

 

[MMA Goodfella]

So what is a fair line for Overeem? How many times out of ten does he beat Silva? I wasn't belittling the Fedor win, I was just pointing out that Bigfoot's stand-up isn't that great. He gets most of his work done on the ground and Overeem is REALLY hard to take down. Werdum and Lesnar never came close.

Edit: Bigfoot landed a few leg kicks before Browne's knee gave out. It wasn't as dominant as some people remember.

Macphee,I know you personally weren't belittling BF's win over Fedor, but it has become almost cliche to almost ignore it. But how? Was Fedor or was Fedor not the best HW on the planet? If the answer is no, then t's alright to be apathetic toward BF's win, however, if the answer is yes, which is ought to be, then people should give him more credit. When BF beat Fedor he did so when Fedor was still in his prime IMO. I mean, FFS, Fedor was only 34 y/o at the time, and still the explosive fireplug he always was. Indeed, Fedor did lose to Werdum, but in that loss Fedor was winning the fight before sloppily diving into a triangle. Additionally, in his loss to Hendo, this was another case of Fedor winning the fight and then getting caught; for Fedor had blasted Dan and followed him to the ground to finish the fight before Dan snuck out the back at door and landed a bomb that Fedor never seen coming.

My point in bringing all that back up point-by-point is b/c even his his losses Fedor was extremely competitive; yet in his loss to BF he was straight up owned like no other fight in his career. As such, I think beating the possible greatest P4P fighter ever and certainly the greatest HW on the planet should give Bigfoot a bit on panache, yet the win is so seemingly meaningless that he is +300 against Overeem and it is genuinely accepted as correct.

I believe that BF is being underrated due to his recent losses, but my God, he has lost to 3 of the top 5 HW's in the world IMO and now he's fighting the 4th on Saturday. Losses to Cain, Cormier, and Werdum must be placed in proper context.

But to answer your question, I think -250 is a fair line for Overeem as I do give him about a 71% chance of winning. I just think 80% is far too high. Again, Reem is coming off a full year layoff, he hasn't been hit hard in a long time, and his experience in a cage in limited.

Let us not forget, the last time Alistair faced a true power puncher he ended up needing assistance to peel him from the canvas as Badr Hari toppled him like a ton of bricks. Indeed, BF is no Badr Hari, but he's more than capable of finding Reem's chin.

 

[EzFlyer]

wow, early for bellator.. i.. don't.. know.. if.. i should.. bet..

i kinda like tirloni's +125 but brooks looked so good against kitaoka...

i am fine with a shot at woodard -115 but... will rickels get bet?

 

[A Muse of Fire]

I think Hieron wins.