My UFC 156 Bets - Post Yours

[Oblivian]

Same drill as always - post bets and discuss bets/matchups.

I'm coming off a breakeven event last weekend. I'm probably keeping this small as I'm on mainly favorites.

Singles
Fitch: $12.50 to win $9.62
McCall: $10 to win $19.75
Flagg: $7.50 to win $13.88
Hieron: $7.50 to win $9.75
Rickels: $7.50 to win $6.52
Tirloni: $5 to win $6.75
Michel: $2.50 to win $5

$52.50 to win $71.27

Parlays
Colts (Over Titans) + Rashad: $7.50 to win $5.92
Khan + Uchiyama + Aldo: $7.50 to win $4.50
Freire + Overeem: $7.50 to win $5.77
DeLorenzi + Dunham: $5 to win $9.10
Aoki + Kawajiri + Evans: $5 to win $6.66
Overeem + Hieron/Woodley over 2.5 + Volkmann: $5 to win $6.30
Rivera + Woodard/Rickels over 2.5: $5 to win $6.29
Not Belfort by Decision + Not Edgar ITD + Evans by decision: $5 to win $5.02
Matthyse + Field over Tiger (Farmers Open) + Edgar/Aldo goes 5 + Reem/Bigfoot ITD: $5 to win $7.73
Sturm + Edgar/Aldo goes 5 + Reem/Bigfoot ITD: $5 to win $6.37
Green/Volkmann over 2.5 + Camus + Michel/Sarn over 2.5: $2.50 to win $13.68
Hail Mary: Evans + Reem + Fitch/Maia over 2.5 + Dunham/Tibau over 2.5 + Hieron/Woodley over 2.5 + Volk + Rivera + Woodard/Rickels over 2.5 + Tirl/Brooks over 2.5 + Edgar/Aldo starts 3: $2.50 to win $46.89

$62.50 to win $124.23

Plays After Bellator (Legacy Fighting)
Rosholt: $12.50 to win $6.10
Dunham + Aguilar: $2.50 to win $5.81
Spratt + Camus: $2.50 to win $7.45

$17.50 to win $19.36

TOTAL OF $132.50 TO WIN $214.86


TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $256.91. Running Profit = $24.41 (Approximate ROI for year: 7%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2013: $29 into $2230.21Total Profit = $2201.21 (Approximate ROI: 20.1%)

 

[doit1time]

Im probably going to put a few hundred on an Evans/ Overeem parlay... still thinking about it. Fitch for the win maybe as well.

 

[flakxd]

I would never bet on something I enjoy watching so much. I'd hate to root against someone I like simply due to money/greed. To each their own I guess......

 

[doit1time]

I would never bet on something I enjoy watching so much. I'd hate to root against someone I like simply due to money/greed. To each their own I guess......

That's a funny way to look at it...

 

[prodigybest]

all the money you have in the bank of Evans

 

[arrelione]

Im probably going to put a few hundred on an Evans/ Overeem parlay... still thinking about it. Fitch for the win maybe as well.

I've seen a lot of people saying the same thing about a Evans Overeem parlay. I think the books will have a field day if these guys lose. With that said I am already on both guys too.

 

[Chules]

Haven't betted for a while since I lost quite abit but I'd go for:
Edgar
Evans
Overeem
Fitch
Benavidez
Woodley

 

[Kaffe]

As of now:

10 on Maia to win 15.
Evans and Overeem in a couple of parlays.

Props:
5 on Aldo/Edgar goes distance to win 7.25
3 on Edgar by decision to win 11.55

 

[MMAfan2k9]

Haven't betted for a while since I lost quite abit but I'd go for:
Edgar
Evans
Overeem
Fitch
Benavidez
Woodley

Id stick

 

[WalkenWouldOwn]

Hoping Bigfoot's odds keep getting better. I am a Reem fan but I think Bigfoot is a bit underrated.

Interested in the odds of Dunham over Tibau, and Woodley over Hieron. Volkmann and Yves should win somewhat easily but they'll probably be huge favorites.

 

[Oblivian]

I would never bet on something I enjoy watching so much. I'd hate to root against someone I like simply due to money/greed. To each their own I guess......

See, I'm completely the opposite of your viewpoint when it comes to watching MMA and other sports. I've never really understood the view of picking "your fighter" or "your team". Do I have a favorite fighter? Honestly, no. I have fighters that I really enjoy watching due to their style, but I really enjoy interesting matchups more than anything. Even if you are of the mindset of having favorite fighters, just don't bet on their fights. There are a lot of fights on each card.

 

[electricute]

poor showing with UFC on fox 6, but mainly due to chasing my loses.

this event and superbowl will likely drain my accounts. also wont be home on sat night to actually watch it, so might be better that way.


so far i really confident in ubereem to win, however i do need to go back and watch the first time they fought.

i like fitch against maia, think the wrestling and grinding will play a big part in this. maia has some horrible stand-up and fitch is good enough to kep posture and not get sub when on top. only way i see maia winning is by taking fitch down and working from the top or if fitch makes a mistake and gives up his back. both are not likely, i like fitch's chances. maia's cardio is still an unknown still his move to WW.

rashad and lil nog should be fairly 1 sided. i might add him in a parlay or so.

edgar and aldo. siding on aldo. i just think he's a beast, edgar will want to stick and move in the fight leaving him open for aldo's deadly leg kicks from the outside. we saw mendes have no luck getting aldo to the mat, i see edgar having the same problems if he tries. aldo will have size and reach. i see aldo winning about 65%-70% of the time.

uncle creepy and benivdez. these little guys always so hard to predict. personally i thought creepy won his fight with MM, but benivdez clearly lost his. but that doesn't mean anything cause these guys are different fighters. alreayd pulled the trigger on creepy, as i think there's value there

there might also be some underdog value in tibau and heiron depending on the odds. what are the current lines on those fights?

 

[Kaffe]

You don't think Maia can take down Fitch, Electricute? Dude gets taken down relatively often actually. Same goes for getting his back taken. If Maia can take down Sonnen and DHK, he has a fair shot at taking down Fitch.

I'm seeing Fitch/Maia as more of a bet on whether Maia has gas enough at WW to take two rounds through grappling or get the sub. Grappling with Maia isn't anywhere near a death sentence, as Fitch has an amazing sub defense which won't be affected by any gas tank issues. However, he won't be able to escape if Maia gets the same RNC opportunity as Silva did. There is a limit to even Fitch's sub defense.

I cap Maia at +115ish, and like my odds at +150.

 

[high kicker]

You don't think Maia can take down Fitch, Electricute? Dude gets taken down relatively often actually. Same goes for getting his back taken. If Maia can take down Sonnen and DHK, he has a fair shot at taking down Fitch.

I'm seeing Fitch/Maia as more of a bet on whether Maia has gas enough at WW to take two rounds through grappling or get the sub. Grappling with Maia isn't anywhere near a death sentence, as Fitch has an amazing sub defense which won't be affected by any gas tank issues. However, he won't be able to escape if Maia gets the same RNC opportunity as Silva did. There is a limit to even Fitch's sub defense.

I cap Maia at +115ish, and like my odds at +150.

Completely on board here Kaffe. If E Silva can get that close to a RNC Maia gets the finish there. I like Maia @+150 and his price might get even better, I am holding back would love @+170

 

[electricute]

You don't think Maia can take down Fitch, Electricute? Dude gets taken down relatively often actually. Same goes for getting his back taken. If Maia can take down Sonnen and DHK, he has a fair shot at taking down Fitch.

I'm seeing Fitch/Maia as more of a bet on whether Maia has gas enough at WW to take two rounds through grappling or get the sub. Grappling with Maia isn't anywhere near a death sentence, as Fitch has an amazing sub defense which won't be affected by any gas tank issues. However, he won't be able to escape if Maia gets the same RNC opportunity as Silva did. There is a limit to even Fitch's sub defense.

I cap Maia at +115ish, and like my odds at +150.

i get there's a chance that he'll get fitch's back and sub him out, but i think thats the only way he wins. i dont really see him taking a decision, but i've been wrong many times in the past.

i should go back and watch that silva fight and see.

 

[cs10]

definitely excited to try to recoup some of last weekends losses. So far I think i may be on Edgar and McCall at around 2 to 1 odds.

Edgar-Aldo fight im finding hard to call just for the obvious reasons frankie coming down and what not but at first glance 2 to 1 seems like good enough odds to take a chance on it.

still thinking on maia vs fitch

and pretty interested to see the undercard odds

McCall-benavidez i feel like it will be pretty even, i think benevidez has more power but i think mccall had good showing vs DJ and i could see this going to decision with McCall having been a little more active on the feet and with kicks while benavidez was more looking for the big shot.

 

[Card]

 

[Oblivian]

Completely on board here Kaffe. If E Silva can get that close to a RNC Maia gets the finish there. I like Maia @+150 and his price might get even better, I am holding back would love @+170

You have to consider a lot of things here though. Fitch specifically said he does not want to play around at all with Maia. He acknowledges that he's very hard to submit, but if there is anyone out there who can it would be Maia. With someone like Erick Silva, he said he had no problem going on the ground with him. He has said more than once that he has no issue giving up position and letting his opponent try to sub him to wear him out. Those back and forth fights really wear on your opponent, but I don't think he's looking to do that against Maia.

I think this is a case of Fitch really preparing TDD where he didn't really care to against Silva nor expect that he needed to against BJ. With that said, Maia's takedowns are pretty underrated.

 

[Break Brick]

Not seeing much value for this event without laying heavier than I like to bet. Kind of like Maia and Mcall as decent value underdogs so might parlay them, not sure.

 

[Goreds1994]

K1 Maia > Broke Fitch


I don't like McCall at all personally. I think Benavidez is better than him everywhere.