Bigfoot just doesn't have a clear route to victory against Overeem. He's not taking him down, and he's not outstriking him. The only way he wins is via lucky punch.
Two underdog bets I'm looking at is Frankie Edgar and Bigfoot. Both should be underdogs but hell...not 3-1 dogs. What are your thoughts on these guys?
Well, I do expect Reem to win, but I'm trying to tell everyone who'll listen not to think this is a lock, that Bigfoot is very much a live dog IMO. FFS, Bigfoot is 17-4 for a reason, and 3 of those 4 losses have come at the hands of the HW elite including Werdum, Cain, and Daniel Cormier. The only other loss was a fluke defeat against Eric Pele way back in '06. I remember watching this fight and Bigfoot was in complete control, he was picking Eric apart before getting careless and dropping his hands; Eric came over the top w/ a savage right hand that simply starched the giant. Even still, BF is an elite HW completely capable of pulling off an upset.
Indeed, BF has demonstrated a disconcerting propensity to get hit flush, however, in spite of his penchant for deflecting shots with his monolithic dome, Bigfoot has only been KO'd twice, and while I'm not going to pretend that BF has a Big Country-esque beard, I do believe his jaw has quite a bit more integrity that it gets credit for. I say this b/c the shot that Cormier and Pele landed were pernicious bombs that would have dropped a horse; it's BF's proclivity of getting hit cleanly that is the problem, and with HW's there only needs to be one clean shot.
BF has had some notable victories; he basically won a kickboxing match vs. Arlovski; he absolutely enveloped Fedor with his gargantuan frame and proceeded to bludgeon him in savage fashion until the doctor had seen enough; and he destroyed a very solid Travis Browne. True, none of these fighters are Overeem, but what BF displayed in these three wins was the ability to avoid the kill shot all three of these men possess. What's more, as BF showed w/ Fedor, the man has a ferocious top game, and if he can somehow drag Reem into the late 2nd round where fatigue may become an issue, it is conceivable that he could put Reem on his back. If this happens, the entire complexion of the fight changes. Remember, Alistair has been off for over a year now and may not be in the best of fight shape.
Lastly, when plunking down heavy change on a guy who's sitting at -400 it is wise to know if he can take a punch, and IMO the jury is still out on that inquiry. If you want to know a horse look at it's track record, and Alistair's track record is a bit worrisome since 7 of Reem's 11 losses have came via KO/TKO. While it's true that Alistair hasn't been KO'd in some time, it's also true he hasn't fought many top 10 fighters as of late that could have checked his chin. In fact, the lone two top 10 opponents Reem has faced were Brock and Werdum; unfortunately neither of these fighters are exactly striking savants capable of testing Alistair's jaw in the manner in which Sergei, Shogun and Chuck were able to do and which Bigfoot has the skill-set to do.
In the end I think Reem rolls, but this isn't a pick em' or anything near it. As such, this is too rich for my blood.
