Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

How sad is it that I'm already gathering thoughts about a G3 race between a bunch of 2nd and 3rd raters that's still 5 days away? Ugh.

Must be getting close to Travers time.

 

[Sharkey]

From this past weekend, Good Samaritan received a career high 100 BSF in winning the Jim Dandy. Girvin received a 95 BSF for winning the Haskell.

Tapwrit (103), Always Dreaming (102), Classic Empire (102), Cloud Computing (102), Irish War Cry (100 & 101), and West Coast (100) are the only other 3 year-olds besides Good Samaritan to crack the 100 BSF mark in a race at 9F or further so far this year.

 

[Sharkey]

Game Over is trained by Jorge Navarro. At a secondary track that likely doesn't care. Just saying.

 

[Sharkey]

Game Over is trained by Jorge Navarro. At a secondary track that likely doesn't care. Just saying.

https://equibase.com/profiles/allStartsPeople.cfm?eID=264779&typeSource=TE&rbt=TB&year=2017

Over his last 100 races in which he's entered horses, Navarro has won 42 of them by my count, finished 2nd in another 16 of them, as well as finishing 3rd in 16 of them. That's a 42% wining percentage and 74% in hitting the board. Most of those came in allowance, maiden, and claiming races where, let's just say, certain testing isn't nearly as strict as it is when it comes to stakes races. Now he's entering a horse in a stakes race at a track that, let's just say, certain testing isn't likely to be nearly as strict as it is when it comes to stakes races at other tracks. No accusations here, although let's just say Game Over gets a little "help" before the race. I mean, I already kind of like him in the race anyways. But let's just say.

 

[Sharkey]

1 - Game Over -12/1
2 - Phat Man- 10/1
3 - Patch - 7/2
4 - B Squared - 9/2
5 - Impressive Edge - 8/1
6 - Watch Me Whip - 20/1
7 - Coloneldarktemper - 8/1
8 - Lookin At Lee - 3/1
9 - Silver Dust -15/1
10 - Heartwood - 50/1
11 - McCormick - 6/1

Edited to include the morning line odds.

Interesting how the top 2 choices, Lookin At Lee and Patch, have combined for only 1 win in 11 starts so far this year, and that was but a maiden win by Patch back in February. The public can have them.

 

[Sharkey]

I love races like this where the public is likely to lean on the "name" horses. Patch is a pure grinding type who just chugs along at a consistent pace, and Lookin At Lee is a pure plodder type who clunks up at the end of his races. If this race was at 10F or further then yeah, maybe they'd be the two mostly likely winners just because they're mostly pure stamina types. But at 9F where speed is more of a factor? I'd be a little surprised if either of them won. I haven't seen any speed figures yet, but I'd be a little surprised if either are even amongst the top 4 or 5 fastest of these horses on the figs.

This is a big opportunity to cash some nice tickets if we can somehow land on the right horses.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Heading to Saratoga for the weekend (Friday/Saturday) so I'll be there for the Whitney. Can't wait, hoping to cash some tickets.

 

[Sharkey]

Heading to Saratoga for the weekend (Friday/Saturday) so I'll be there for the Whitney. Can't wait, hoping to cash some tickets.

Awesome K. Sounds like a great time.

I may play the Whitney myself if there's something worth playing in the race. Tough to go against Gun Runner, and tough to play him at such short odds as well. I think the G1 Test at Saratoga is the same day I do believe, and that may end up being the race I play on the card.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Nice! Are odds for the Whitney out already? Expected Gun Runner to go off as a fave, saw him run in Belmont, was really impressed.

 

[Sharkey]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

PP's for the West Virginia Derby besides Patch's name there.

Game Over had an E2 of 94 his 1st race, an E2 of 83 his 2nd race, and an E2 of 107 his last race. You guys know the deal by now when it comes to that angle with me. Both a visual middle move and the E2 angle going into this next race of his, which will be his 3rd start off a layoff as well (another good handicapping angle). Will be entering the race after having posted the highest Brisnet speed figure of the field in his last race. Likely sits a good trip in midpack in a race with some early speed signed on. May be getting a little "help" from his trainer. And is 12/1 on the morning line. What's not to like?

 

[Sharkey]

Nice! Are odds for the Whitney out already? Expected Gun Runner to go off as a fave, saw him run in Belmont, was really impressed.

I don't think the race has been drawn yet, K, so we'll have to see the whole field before the post the odds. Gun Runner, Keen Ice, War Story, and a few others should be entered, though. Gun Runner is very likely to be odds-on against this group, though. Best hope may be to hope for rain and try to beat him that way, as a wet track has been his one weakness so far during his career.

 

[Sharkey]

If you guys click on the PP's and notice the listing of the top 3 finishers on the far right, the names in italics indicates that the horse won their next race after that one. So as is the case with Game Over when he won his first two career starts, both of the horses he beat in those races (The Giper and Enchantra) ended up winning their very next starts.

This will also be the first race that Navarro has trained him for, and everybody in the game knows that Navarro has a "special talent" for improving horses a great deal once he gets them in his barn. He has a long history of getting a hold of horses who were typically running 50's and 60's BSF and being non-factors in their races, to suddenly running BSF in the 80's or 90's and winning their races by daylight.

Game Over is 12/1 on the morning line. Just saying.

 

[Sharkey]

"Paolucci, an Akron, Ohio, native whose father took him to Mountaineer—then Waterford Park—as a child, entered Game Over, who won his first two starts before finishing fifth in the Ohio Derby. The Mineshaft colt was shipped to Monmouth to train under the eye of Jorge Navarro, who as usual is running away with the leading trainer title at the New Jersey track.

Paolucci, who ran three horses in the Ohio Derby, said of the West Virginia Derby: “Only need one.”

The connections also obtained the services of Mountaineer's all-time leading rider, Deshawn Parker, who no longer is based at the Hancock County facility but will make a homecoming of sorts for its biggest race. Parker has several other mounts on the Saturday afternoon program."

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/...-headline-11-horse-field-west-virginia-derby/


Having the track's "all-time leading rider" get the mount on Game Over can't hurt since, if there are any little quirks specific to the track itself, he's undoubtably going to know about it.

 

[Sharkey]

If you guys click on the PP's and notice the listing of the top 3 finishers on the far right, the names in italics indicates that the horse won their next race after that one. So as is the case with Game Over when he won his first two career starts, both of the horses he beat in those races (The Giper and Enchantra) ended up winning their very next starts.

This will also be the first race that Navarro has trained him for, and everybody in the game knows that Navarro has a "special talent" for improving horses a great deal once he gets them in his barn. He has a long history of getting a hold of horses who were typically running 50's and 60's BSF and being non-factors in their races, to suddenly running BSF in the 80's or 90's and winning their races by daylight.

Game Over is 12/1 on the morning line. Just saying.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=105060

That's an old thread from 4 years ago on the paceadvantage forum that talks about Navarro and his "magic" at improving horses. Some quotes from it;

-----

"Check out the PPs of Crazy About Me in the 9th today at Monmouth.

Beyers before Navarro: 71, 23, 41, 55, 49, 39, 34, 13.

Beyers after Navarro (Or, AN): 88, 89 and 95. All 3 easy wins where she was strangled and could have went 5 to 10 points faster if she had to."

-----

"JBs Unc entered and scratched in the 9th at Monmouth today.

Beyers Before Navarro: 56, 58, 66, 64, 61

Beyers after Navarro (or, AN): 86, 87, 91 (all large margin winners, could probably have gone faster if jock asked the horse to run)"

-----

"Take a look at the feature race today at Gulf. Navarro has a filly he claimed for 15k. The horse's best Beyer under her former trainer was 71. After Navarro took the horse , her next 4 Beyers were 88, 89, 94, 95. This filly has gone from a 15k nw2 to one of the possible favorites in today's grade 3 stake in the short period of 5 races."

-----

"Perhaps his greatest training feat ever today, and that is saying something!

He got a horse previously trained in its lone outing by Christopher Clemente. The horse finished last of 9, beating 30 lengths that day, in a 60k maiden claimer.

Today, for the Maestro, he ran in a MSW at Calder and won wire to wire, paying 4-1. I'm sure it was just that the horse needed blinkers. Luckily,the public was able to figure out how much better of a trainer Navarro is than Clement. The public is tough."

-----


By "magic" I of course mean;

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/...lations-up-to-300-times-over-permitted-level/


What's that old saying; "If you can't beat them..."?

 

[Sharkey]

The post positions and morning line odds for the G1 Whitney on Saturday;

1 - War Story - 6/1
2 - Breaking Lucky - 8/1
3 - Cautious Giant - 30/1
4 - Tu Brutus - 8/1
5 - Keen Ice - 3/1
6 - Gun Runner - 4/5
7 - Discreet Lover - 25/1

Cautious Giant is a very interesting inclusion in this race. He's been primarily a 2nd rate sprinter on the west coast in the past who is owned by Loooch Racing. Those are the same owners of War Story who could use a little pace in the race. Cautious Giant is obviously a rabbit in this race and nothing else. Much like he was a couple of months ago in the G2 Charlestown Classic when he was sent out there to soften up the favourite in Stanford, which he succeeded at doing as Stanford faded to 5th in the late going (Cautious Giant gave way quite early and finished way last). Didn't quite work out for War Story in that race as he ended up 1/2 length back at the wire to another closer. But it is quite clear that Cautious Giant is only in this race to try to set a fast pace and try to soften up the favourite in Gun Runner.

War Story is own by Loooch Racing and has also only recently been switched over to Jorge Navarro's barn. Since being switched to the Navarro barn, War Story has finished 1/2 length back in a G2 and then also won a G2 by a good margin in his last race. That after having never won a graded stakes race in his life, nor being all that close to winning one.

Loooch Racing and Jorge Navarro. Same owner and trainer of Game Over in the WV Derby. What do you guys think? Should we double up on that tandem this weekend? Not to say that Navarro is going to get away with the same things in a G1 at Saratoga as he would in a G3 at Mountaineer. But War Story may have a shot in the Whitney as his connections try to play "dirty" in a more accepted way.

 

[Sharkey]

Cautious Giant's role in the Whitney will be the exact same as it was here;

 

[kenfloshogun]

Interesting catch there Sharkey. What are your thoughts on owners doing that? I kind of appreciate the gamesmanship.

 

[Sharkey]

Interesting catch there Sharkey. What are your thoughts on owners doing that? I kind of appreciate the gamesmanship.

Really depends where my wagering or even just rooting interests are, K. If you have a good idea on what the owners and/or trainers intentions are then you can really capitalize on it from a gambling standpoint. I know @BluntTrauma21 and some other guys on here certainly didn't mind it last year when WinStar entered Gettysburg in the Belmont just so Creator had some kind of pace to run at. Me, on the other hand, hated that Gettysburg was entered in the race because he may have cost me a chance to hit that race big when he tired and came down to block the horse I was backing from getting through the rail. Earlier in that year, though, I loved that WinStar entered Gettysburg in the Arkansas Derby as a pace setter for Creator. I crushed that race because I was able to identify him as being the one to set a fast pace and soften up the favourite in Cupid, thus open the race up for late runners like Creator and Suddenbreakingnews.

If Creator is still Blunt's favourite horse that might make Gettysburg his 2nd favourite as he's won a lot of money from that tandem.

 

[Sharkey]

The thing with Cautious Giant, though, is that the people connected to Gun Runner are also going to see that that horse is only entered in this race as a rabbit for War Story. In order for the plan to work Gun Runner and his jock also have to be willing to play their part and get sucked in to the strategy. If Cautious Giant goes out there and sets a fast early pace the jock on Gun Runner may just say "have at it" and then wait for the rabbit to start backing up. Gun Runner has never really been a headstrong type either, so he may not play along with the Loooch Racing strategy by pulling the rider along in a chase on his own. But Gun Runner has been racing on the lead over his last few starts, so who knows. Maybe he does play into the strategy since he's gotten used to being the controlling speed in his races.

 

[Sharkey]

And like was the case in the Charlestown Classic when Loooch tried this strategy of entering the same rabbit for War Story, there are going to be other horses in the race that benefit from a hot early pace as well if their plan works.