Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

What a fucking close that was. Looked dead in the water then just exploded down the stretch. What a fucking race. Thank you Sharkey, you are a gentleman and a scholar. OH CANADA!!!
 
Almost 9/1 on the win end, 2/1 on the place end, and 35/1 on the exacta. Yes please.
 
That was a 70/1 exacta actually. Not 35/1. They must've put up the $1 returns when I saw it live.
 
that was some beautiful stuff right there, lol. Great job Shark. Thanks again man. You are one of my favorite posters, for real. Making me money and dropping knowledge on a regular basis. Not many posters out there better than that!
 
that was some beautiful stuff right there, lol. Great job Shark. Thanks again man. You are one of my favorite posters, for real. Making me money and dropping knowledge on a regular basis. Not many posters out there better than that!

You're too kind, my friend. But thanks. I needed a race like that, though, and soon. I was getting tired of the cycle I've been in the last few months. Show a minor profit one weekend, and then get shut out completely the next. Show a small profit. Get shut out next time. It gets tiresome. So it's that much sweeter when you can crush a race like that for once. Hopefully tomorrow's Haskell is another good day for us.
 
Thinking this is the way to go in tomorrow's Haskell;

- Practical Joke to win for 2u
- Timeline, Practical Joke, and Battle of Midway exacta box for 1u each

Realistically I could see any one of those three winning with maybe Timeline being the most likely winner of the race out of all of them. I just think Practical Joke is going to get ignored at the windows for the most, though, because of the often repeated narrative that he doesn't want to go a route of ground. Might get a good price on him in the 6/1 to 8/1 range because of that thinking. The price may be too hard to for me to ignore on what is the classiest horse in the field. He's the only G1 winner in the field and he has two of them to his name. He's also been one of the few consistent horses in this year's crop having hit the board in every one of his races save the Derby when he ran an okay 5th. He has shown to give an honest effort of himself each and every time so far, and not all the horses in the field can say that. Nice race last time out in the Dwyer when he had to overcome two instances where he got blocked for positioning and yet he still won pretty easily against horses like Battalion Runner, Guiseppe the Great and some others. Was probably at least 5 lengths better than that field. He's in form right now and making his 2nd start off the layoff, which has been a pretty good move for him before (a 1st and close 2nd). He's also one of the horses who ran in the Blue Grass, which has been a key race since. Looked like a strong field going in. Looked like a mediocre bunch during the race. But it now looks like a strong field once again considering all the success those runners have had since. Irap won the Blue Grass and he's won his last two races. Practical Joke was 2nd and he won his last race. McCracken was 3rd and he won his last race. Tapwrit was 5th and he won the Belmont. Wild Shot finished last that race yet he ended up winning his next race after. Besides J Boys Echo, every other horse has won stakes races since then. Practical Joke might also be sitting a good midpack trip tomorrow if either Battle of Midway or Timeline decide to take Irish War Cry on pretty early. It might open the race up some and Practical Joke should have first run on the likes of McCracken and Hence. The distance is a question, but at the price I think he'll be I think he's worth the shot.

Timeline may be the most likely winner tomorrow, as he's the horse with the most upside of this group of runners (and maybe all the 3 year-olds in the US). He's also been consistent having won all 4 of his races so far and doing so impressively. Included in those wins was one at this 9F distance in the Peter Pan, as well as being the only horse in the field who has a win over this track when he won the Haskell prep last month. he's the fastest horse on both the Brisnet and TimeformUS fihures, as well as being the co-fastest on the BSF with Irish War Cry and Practical Joke. He's also in good form and with a bullet in his last workout. This horse may just roll over this field actually, but there is still the questions regarding his class since he's never raced against this quality of horses before. He's raced some decent horses in his races, but none have won graded stakes race yet in their career. This will be a big test for him. We'll see if he's up to it. Also might be sitting a good trip if Battle of Midway is the one taking on Irish War Cry early. He should be sitting right behind those two if that's the case.

Battle of Midway is yet another consistent type. His last 4 races have all been good efforts. And he's a battler too, which I like. He was very game to beat Reach the World in that good allowance race earlier in the year. He was even more game in the Santa Anita Derby when he was right up there on a hot pace all throughout and just barely got beat at the line by Gormley. He also ran game in the Derby when he finished 3rd. He also crushed Irish War Cry's heart in the Derby as well, in a little race within the race. Irish War Cry was asked to challenge him, Battle of Midway said not so fast, and then Irish War Cry threw in the towel before fading badly in the stretch. I think there's a really good chance that we see the same one-on-one race within the race tomorrow between those two, and don't mind me if I take the horse that already proved he could easily handle and brush aside the challenge of the other horse. And the horse who'll be the much better price of the two. Battle of Midway also has some upside as well having only started racing earlier this year, although not as much upside as a horse like Timeline. But he's a proven hard tryer who should sit a nice stalking trip outside a horse he already proved he could handle. Or he sits right behind if Timeline is the one to test Irish War Cry earlier in the race.

So yeah. I'll use those three horses tomorrow. Two of them should be up close to the pace on what will likely be a track that favours those types. And the other one should sit midpack, so he won't be totally compromised by the track if it plays that way.

Quick thoughts on the others; Girvin is okay. If I was playing the trifecta I could see myself using him underneath somewhere. Honest type who ran a game 2nd to Irap. But Girvin may need to answer the class question even more than Timeline since Girvin has never beaten a horse that was really much of a runner. Irish War Cry could be dangerous under the right circumstances, but what I said before about Always Dreaming applies even moreso to this horse. He'll have a great chance to win if he gets an unpressured lead and is left alone out there. And if he does get pressured odds are he's going to fold it up once again. Like he's done at least two, maybe three times in the past as he seemed to give way pretty quickly to Tapwrit in the Belmont once Tapwrit did end up getting beside him. Has the physical ability to get it done tomorrow, but lacks the mental strength to deal with pressure if things don't go his way. He's been on a good race, bad race pattern this year with the bad race being what's up next for him if the pattern continues. He's also going to get overbet as the hometown Jersey bred horse. I think he'll be closer to even money rather than his 5/2 morning line. McCracken is a solid and pretty consistent type. Problem with him is that he's never really ran that fast, and he's another one who's likely to be overbet. He's got a bit of a fan club out there. Like Practical Joke, people also question his ability to go longer. He's probably going to be similar odds to Practical Joke as well, if not even lower. Yet the two times those two have met Practical Joke has finished ahead of him by 3+ lengths in both races. McCracken's win in the Matt Winn last time out was underwhelming considering he was facing absolutely nothing in that race. He is not for me tomorrow, and as a closer he may be up against it on this track unless unless the race completely falls apart at the end. And then there's Hence. Yeah him. You can have him. he can look as good as anybody one race and then shit the bed the next. Shit the bed in the race after that then look like he's as good as anybody in the race after. I can't bet that even if he does end up as the longest shot on the board. Never know what you're going to get from him. Looked good his last race when he closed into a soft pace to win decisively against some decent sorts. But put two races together in a row then I'll be convinced. He hasn't done it yet. Like McCracken he'd need the race to fall apart at the end, although at his best I think he is quite a bit better at closing than McCracken.

So that's it. Another novel with my thoughts, and hopefully another profitable race tomorrow.
 
Ah geez. I just saw Battle of Midway's workout from last week when he worked 7F. Now I'm starting to second guess myself and wondering if I should be putting my win bet down on him instead. He was so composed during the workout yet energetic. Alert throughout and responding to whatever the jockey asked of him. Nice gallop out after the wire. Oh boy. I also saw Timeline's latest bullet workout too, and he looked good as well. But that one is very likely to get bet more than Battle of Midway or Practical Joke, so I'd rather go with one of those two on the win side of things. I still think I get better odds with Practical Joke, though. Hmm, decisions, decisions. Have to sleep on this I think.
 
Thank you @Sharkey !!!! Just got around to watching the race. Awesome!!

I swear I almost always box my exactas and I thought about it this time too but for some reason I didn't do it. I really wish I had seen the post where you mentioned boxing your's before the race. Ah well.

My book payed about 12/1 on the win/place bets so still a beautiful 12u win for me. I hit a crazy parlay on UFC 214 for about 66u, which makes a +78u day for me. My best sports gambling day ever. Feels good!
 
Thank you @Sharkey !!!! Just got around to watching the race. Awesome!!

I swear I almost always box my exactas and I thought about it this time too but for some reason I didn't do it. I really wish I had seen the post where you mentioned boxing your's before the race. Ah well.

My book payed about 12/1 on the win/place bets so still a beautiful 12u win for me. I hit a crazy parlay on UFC 214 for about 66u, which makes a +78u day for me. My best sports gambling day ever. Feels good!

Cheers T.

It sucks you didn't get the exacta too. My bad for that. That should've been a play from the start since I was playing Good Samaritan to win and thought Guiseppe had a chance to finish 2nd. Just the potential payouts on it make it a must play in hindsight. I was sitting here yesterday hoping you did what you usually do as well because you do box them a lot. It was a last minute decision for me to box them, but when you look at how I was viewing the race it really shouldn't have been. My apologies for that.

You cashing on the UFC like you did makes me feel better, though. I saw your post on that last night and I was like damn, T absolutely crushed that son of a bitch. Awesome man. Congrats on the huge score yesterday, my friend. Really, really happy for you.
 
Yesterday was my biggest score since last year's Arkansas Derby and I still don't know how I managed that in only a 5 horse field. The funny (or sad) thing is, though, is that I still feel like I should have made a little more on that place payout with the two big favourites finishing out. I was quite surprised it didn't pay more. I'm greedy like that.

But today is a new day, and a new race. I don't plan on changing my initial Haskell plays that I posted last night;

- Practical Joke to win for 2u
- Practical Joke, Timeline, Battle of Midway exacta box for 1u each

I went back and forth a little on who should get my win wager last night, but still think I end up with a better price on Practical Joke. And as silly as this sounds that little joke I made last week about throwing handicapping out the window and just picking the #4 horse was on my mind too. If you think about it, that little comment there may be the definition of a practical joke. So with Practical Joke breaking from the #4 post today I think I have to stick with him after my actual handicapping pegged him as a strong win contender. It would be a bad omen not to stick with him I think.
 
Cheers T.

It sucks you didn't get the exacta too. My bad for that. That should've been a play from the start since I was playing Good Samaritan to win and thought Guiseppe had a chance to finish 2nd. Just the potential payouts on it make it a must play in hindsight. I was sitting here yesterday hoping you did what you usually do as well because you do box them a lot. It was a last minute decision for me to box them, but when you look at how I was viewing the race it really shouldn't have been. My apologies for that.

You cashing on the UFC like you did makes me feel better, though. I saw your post on that last night and I was like damn, T absolutely crushed that son of a bitch. Awesome man. Congrats on the huge score yesterday, my friend. Really, really happy for you.

Thanks man I appreciate it!

And don't you dare apologize. I wouldn't have won anything on that race if it wasn't for your picks and it was still a nice hit.
 
Yesterday was my biggest score since last year's Arkansas Derby and I still don't know how I managed that in only a 5 horse field. The funny (or sad) thing is, though, is that I still feel like I should have made a little more on that place payout with the two big favourites finishing out. I was quite surprised it didn't pay more. I'm greedy like that.

But today is a new day, and a new race. I don't plan on changing my initial Haskell plays that I posted last night;

- Practical Joke to win for 2u
- Practical Joke, Timeline, Battle of Midway exacta box for 1u each

I went back and forth a little on who should get my win wager last night, but still think I end up with a better price on Practical Joke. And as silly as this sounds that little joke I made last week about throwing handicapping out the window and just picking the #4 horse was on my mind too. If you think about it, that little comment there may be the definition of a practical joke. So with Practical Joke breaking from the #4 post today I think I have to stick with him after my actual handicapping pegged him as a strong win contender. It would be a bad omen not to stick with him I think.

Tailing, of course. Let's keep it going!
 
Thanks man I appreciate it!

And don't you dare apologize. I wouldn't have won anything on that race if it wasn't for your picks and it was still a nice hit.

Yeah, but still. The opportunity to hit a 70/1 exacta doesn't come around every day, T. As you're sitting there drinking your champagne and eating caviar in celebration on your huge UFC hit last night, maybe we can get you one of those exactas in today's race, though. It won't be 70/1. But if it's Practical Joke and Battle of Midway that finish 1st and 2nd we might be able to cash a very nice 35/1 exacta. Hmm, sounds like a plan me thinks. How bout it?
 
Damnn Sharkey's back. Capped that one to perfection.

Anyone know where I can watch the Haskell? Just moved to the States and my B365 account doesn't work anymore :(
 
Damnn Sharkey's back. Capped that one to perfection.

Anyone know where I can watch the Haskell? Just moved to the States and my B365 account doesn't work anymore :(

It's on NBC as far as I know, K.
 
It sucks you didn't get the exacta too. My bad for that. That should've been a play from the start since I was playing Good Samaritan to win and thought Guiseppe had a chance to finish 2nd. Just the potential payouts on it make it a must play in hindsight. I was sitting here yesterday hoping you did what you usually do as well because you do box them a lot. It was a last minute decision for me to box them, but when you look at how I was viewing the race it really shouldn't have been. My apologies for that.

@t6p

Your post in the UFC pbp thread regarding low risk, huge reward is basically what I was talking about here, T. It shouldn't have taken some old-timer down at the OTB talking up Guiseppe to make me play the race the way I did because we already had him pegged to potentially finish well. And we were on the winner early.

If we notice something like this in the future, let's all try to look out for each other when it comes to stuff like this shall we? Especially when we're on a couple of nice priced horses like yesterday. Structuring wagers to fit my opinion has always been a weakness of mine. I'm getting better at it. But there's still lots of room for improvement there. Making the right wagers is almost as important as picking the right horses in the long run.
 
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