Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

Yeah, but still. The opportunity to hit a 70/1 exacta doesn't come around every day, T. As you're sitting there drinking your champagne and eating caviar in celebration on your huge UFC hit last night, maybe we can get you one of those exactas in today's race, though. It won't be 70/1. But if it's Practical Joke and Battle of Midway that finish 1st and 2nd we might be able to cash a very nice 35/1 exacta. Hmm, sounds like a plan me thinks. How bout it?

Haha, champagne and caviar. I like that Shark. But let's be honest here, I think you did pretty well yourself yesterday my friend.

That plan sounds good to me. Let do it!

 

[t6p]

@t6p

Your post in the UFC pbp thread regarding low risk, huge reward is basically what I was talking about here, T. It shouldn't have taken some old-timer down at the OTB talking up Guiseppe to make me play the race the way I did because we already had him pegged to potentially finish well. And we were on the winner early.

If we notice something like this in the future, let's all try to look out for each other when it comes to stuff like this shall we? Especially when we're on a couple of nice priced horses like yesterday. Structuring wagers to fit my opinion has always been a weakness of mine. I'm getting better at it. But there's still lots of room for improvement there. Making the right wagers is almost as important as picking the right horses in the long run.

Agreed. We're all here to help each other make money. Let's keep an eye out for good opportunities like yesterday.

 

[Sharkey]

Agreed. We're all here to help each other make money. Let's keep an eye out for good opportunities like yesterday.

Cool. As they say two sets of eyes are better than one. Three or four sets even moreso.

Alright, I've got to head out and gets these plays in.

 

[Sharkey]

Glad I didn't get sucked in to betting Hence again. Hasn't looked good at all in the pre-race with him tossing his head around when they hit the track, and then all this neck & kidney sweat he's showing in the post parade.

Practical Joke looked good. Alert, on his toes, yet comfortable enough out there to drop a #2. A little surprised he's going off at lower odds than Battle of Midway, though, but 9/2 is okay with me.

 

[Sharkey]

Well that sucked. Race fell apart with the three early pace runners taking each other on too early. The start of Battle of Midway and Timeline didn't help matters, as both had to be rushed up there.

 

[Sharkey]

Practical Joke actually ran a really good race considering where he was positioned throughout. Was sitting fairly close to that demanding 23.4 second 2nd quarter mile of the race. The jock then had put the brakes on him on two occasions rounding the far turn. Still had enough left to make a strong run at the end too to finish less than 1/2 length back at the wire. He was clearly the best horse in the race to me after rewatching it.

 

[t6p]

Practical Joke actually ran a really good race considering where he was positioned throughout. Was sitting fairly close to that demanding 23.4 second 2nd quarter mile of the race. The jock then had put the brakes on him on two occasions rounding the far turn. Still had enough left to make a strong run at the end too to finish less than 1/2 length back at the wire. He was clearly the best horse in the race to me after rewatching it.

I jumped out of my seat when he came on at the very end, I thought we were gonna get it. Ah well, he did what he could.

 

[Sharkey]

I jumped out of my seat when he came on at the very end, I thought we were gonna get it. Ah well, he did what he could.

We were on the right horse, T. I'm confident in saying that. It was only the unpredictable circumstances of how the race was ran beat us in that one.

This year's Travers is going to be quite the puzzle, though. Good Samaritan, Irap, Tapwrit, Gunnevera, Outplay, West Coast, maybe Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing, Girvin and McCracken. Probably a couple of others I'm not thinking of right now. Just wished one of these 3 year-olds steps up and shows themselves the best in this division. It's been a muddled mess all year.

 

[Sharkey]

Classic Empire is another one that the plan is to run in the Travers, but who the hell knows with him. Patch is running next weekend in the West Virginia Derby, so maybe he goes, as well as maybe someone else from that race.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

I saw the chart posted at horseracingnation.com, so I figured I'd share it to show how successful the Jim Dandy has been as a Travers prep over the years. 6 winners of the Travers pulled off the double, with another 3 Travers winners having ran in the Jim Dandy. Another Travers winner raced over the Saratoga track Jim Dandy weekend as well, when VE Day won the Curlin a few years ago.
10 of 17 winners prepped for the Travers over the Saratoga track and another 5 of the winners had ran in the Belmont (Keen Ice, Summer Bird, Birdstone, Ten Most Wanted, and Point Given). I remember bringing up that angle last year only to see a freak named Arrogate throw it all out the window.

 

[Sharkey]

It's still nearly a month away, but it's never too early to start talking about the true last leg of the Triple Crown is it?

 

[Sharkey]

Still the best horse over the last 50 years;

 

[Sharkey]

22 career starts, 18 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third. The only race he never finished in the money was when he crossed like line 1st, but was DQ'd to last. Only horses that ever finished ahead of him were champion horses. Successor beat him as a 2 year-old and he was the champion 2 year-old that year. Damascus beat him twice with the aid of a rabbiit, and he was the champion 3 year-old that year after having won the Preakness, Belmont and Travers (and other races like the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Wood). Buckpasser is the only other one to finish ahead of Dr er and he was champion 2 year-old, champion 3 year-old and then champion handicap horse in successive years. When Damascus faced Dr er on the square without the aid of a rabbit, he lost both times.

That race up there, which is still a world record to this day, was when Dr er was carrying a whopping 134 libs. He could win sprinting, he could win going long (3 wins at 10F, and twice in sub 2:00 time), and he could win on grass (by beating the reigning champion grass horse in the process). All the while carrying tremendous weight. A champion sprinter, champion grass horse, champion older horse, and horse of the year. 4 championships in one year alone, 1968.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[t6p]

Very cool stuff Sharkey. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Sharkey]

Very cool stuff Sharkey. Thanks for sharing.

Cheers T. Dr er doesn't get the recognition of horses like Secretariat or even Spectacular Bid since those two ran the Triple Crown races whereas he didn't. But he was at least as good as those two. Dr er also had one of the better personalities in a race horse being a complete nutcase who just loved running.

 

[Sharkey]

The G3 West Virginia Derby drew an interesting field for it's race on Saturday. Quite a few that we got to know this spring leading up to the Derby and then some other late developing types who have been running against the more familiar 3 year-olds in lesser stake races since the Belmont.

Don't know what the morning line odds are for the race yet, but the post position draw;

1 - Game Over -12/1
2 - Phat Man- 10/1
3 - Patch - 7/2
4 - B Squared - 9/2
5 - Impressive Edge - 8/1
6 - Watch Me Whip - 20/1
7 - Coloneldarktemper - 8/1
8 - Lookin At Lee - 3/1
9 - Silver Dust -15/1
10 - Heartwood - 50/1
11 - McCormick - 6/1

Not sure how that outside post hurts him if even at all. But just looking over the list of names McCormick may end up being the play for me after some handicapping gets done. I liked him going into the Iowa Derby (didn't bet, though) and he ended up 2nd to Hence in that race while finishing ahead of Impressive Edge, Petrov, Silver Dust and some others. Mind you, I don't know if finishing 2nd to Hence is a good thing or a bad thing. But McCormick looks like he may be a possible up and comer this year. This should be a good betting race, though, if you land on the right horse(s).

 

[Sharkey]

Game Over made a nice long sustained middle move in his last race when taking on Irap and Girvin in the Ohio Derby. It didn't work out too well for him that day as he ended up fading late. But it could set him up well for this weekend's race. Like McCormick, he's another lightly raced type with some upside. Should be a really good price as well.

He's the 1X in the race with the lime green silks and blue cap. Breaks from the post 2nd outside and falls to the back at the start;

 

[Sharkey]

Watch Me Whip is another one I could use too, although I already got burned badly by him back on the Preakness undercard. He was an impressive maiden winner earlier in the year before shitting the bed in the Sir Barton (the race I backed him...probably expecting too much from him in only his 2nd race). I thought he ran pretty well in the Indiana Derby, though, as he was the only off the pace type to make up any real ground in that race. The rest of the top 5 that race all ran close to a soft early pace. Watch Me Whip also made a bit of a middle move in that race too making up 5+ lenghs in a 24 second 3rd quarter and he did get his momentum stunted pretty good around the far turn when getting squeezed trying to pass between horses. Another type that has upside potential. His trainer, Dale Romans, has always been really high on this horse and told everybody that this was his Travers horse after only having that maiden win to his credit.

Interesting race this is. Should be some good prices too with horses like Patch and Lookin At Lee likely to take most of the money.