Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Good Samaritan is a WinStar horse too in case @BluntTrauma21 didn't catch that on the horse's silks when watching the Jim Dandy.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Good_Samaritan_1#

We've had some very nice payouts betting that farm over the last couple of years. My two biggest hits the last couple years were with WinStar longshots winning and having the exacta too. I've had luck with them going back even further. Should be one of our handicapping tools; "That's a WinStar horse. Yep, I'll bet him." Shit, maybe I already do that as American Anthem is a WinStar horse and I keep going back to him despite the fact that he's burned me badly twice already. Did get a win for me last time out, though, so he's partially forgiven.

 

[Sharkey]

I don't think the race has been drawn yet, K, so we'll have to see the whole field before the post the odds. Gun Runner, Keen Ice, War Story, and a few others should be entered, though. Gun Runner is very likely to be odds-on against this group, though. Best hope may be to hope for rain and try to beat him that way, as a wet track has been his one weakness so far during his career.

Oh, looky here. The early Saratoga weather forecast is calling for a 70% chance of rain on Thursday, a 70% chance of rain on Friday, and a 60% chance of rain on Saturday. Risk of thunderstorms for both Thursday and Friday.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/weather/new-york/saratoga-springs

Gun Runner has only failed to finish in the money twice so far in his career and both of those races came over wet tracks, which were the only two times he raced over an off track.

War Story, on the other hand, is 2 for 3 over a wet track with his only loss being that 1/2 length defeat in the Charlestown Classic. He two other races over an off track saw him win a ungraded stakes race by 8 lengths, and previously an allowance win by 9 lengths in the slop.

This could be an interesting race to play afterall.

 

[Sharkey]

"Too close to call!"

 

[Sharkey]

Is it any wonder why, in addition to some other reasons, the Travers is my favourite race on the calendar? 5 of the last 9 renditions of the race had to be decided by a photo. Each of the last two years have also produced some incredible results too. American Pharoah's only loss as a 3 year-old in the 2015 running of the race when getting ran down by Keen Ice. And last year when Arrogate came out of nowhere to win by quadruple daylight while setting the stakes and track record in the process.

Best race of the year. Yep. That's the Travers.

 

[Sharkey]

How about a 30/1 longshot in the G1 Test guys? I'm thinking that may be how I play that race on Saturday with the #6 Cursor. There's a lot of early speed that's signed on for the race to the inside with both the #1 and #3, and the #5, #9, and #10 have also shown early speed in their races as well. This race looks like there's a pretty good chance that it will fall apart in the late running for an off the pace type. If that is what happens then this 30/1 shot Cursor may have a good shot, as she has the highest late pace figures on TimeformUS and the 2nd highest average late pace figures on Brisnet. She also seems to be the only pure late running closer in the race with the other off the pace types seeming to be more of the midpack variety. This is a huge class test for Cursor (hence the odds), but her $340,000 price tag as a yearling says she was always highly thought of and her last race, which was won very impressively after making a big move into a rather softish pace up front, says she might just starting to live up to that early potential. She's had 4 races at less than a mile during her career and she's won 2 of them, and finished second in the other 2. Her best finish was a 3rd in races a mile or longer, so it appears that being a late running sprinter is what she really wants to do. You don't need many reasons to bet a horse when they're 30/1 right? Well, I think this girl has more than enough reasons to take a shot with her at that price.

Her last race;

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/BEL/2017/7/13/5/race-5-alw-at-bel-on-7-13-17


If playing the race to open up late for some off the pace types, Tequilita (15/1) and Divine Miss Grey (12/1) also look like options to potentially run a good race. Tequilita also has good late pace numbers and could be making up ground late. She's also won her last 3 races at less than a mile, including one of those being a G2 win. So she'll probably appreciate the shorter distance as well. She also finished a good 2nd on a Saratoga off track last August if the track does see some rain this weekend. The only question with her might be the layoff as she hasn't raced since finishing midpack in the Oaks back in May. Divine Miss Grey will also have to answer the class test, but she also has the style and late pace figures that says she could be a factor. She's also in really good form having won her last 3 races by open lengths while earning the best speed figures of her career. If it does rain, she also has a very impressive win in the slop 2 races back.

A 30/1 longshot along with 15/1 and 12/1 shots to go along with it? Yeah, I think I can gamble a little bit at those odds.

 

[Sharkey]

I think I'm going to try Yoshida again tomorrow in the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga if the race stays on the green stuff. I tried him last race in the Belmont Derby and that was pretty much a disaster for him. Came onto the track seemingly pissed off a the world. Was tossing his head all around in the minutes before entering the gate and got himself extremely washy in the process. Ran like a pissed of horse too, as the jock had very little control of him during the race. The jock basically had to put the choke job on him for much of the race. Considering the circumstances he didn't run all that badly. Understandably faded a little in the stretch, but only lost a length in margin to the winner, Oscar Performance. Also ran an E2 of 101 in that last race of his after having previously ran an E2 high of 88, so he fits that angle if he goes back to being more of an off the pace type that he was the previous race to that. While him being over eager like that sucked on that day the benefit may be that it conditions him some for his next race, which will be his 2nd start off a layoff (horses do often get way too keen like that if not having raced for a bit). I'm going to give him a pass for that last race and try him again tomorrow. Him being 7/2 on the morning line is okay as I don't see any other horse in the field who has shown his type of acceleration when it comes to his turn of foot. If he relaxes early in the race this time I really don't think the others can run with him in the late going. So yeah. I'll try him again.

 

[Sharkey]

Rain has stayed away, so it's Yoshida to win for 3u.

 

[Sharkey]

Meh. 2nd. Ran down in the last few strides. Wished he would've came from off the pace a little more instead of tackling the leaders around the turn.

 

[Sharkey]

G1 Test;

#6 Cursor to win for 0.8u and to show for 1.5u
#6 Cursor, #4 Tequilita, #7 Divine Miss Grey exacta box for 0.2u each


G3 West Virginia Derby;

#1 Game Over to win for 1.5u and to place for 2u


G1 Whitney;

#1 War Story to win for 1u
#1 War Story, #5 Keen Ice exacta box for 1u each

 

[t6p]

G1 Test;

#6 Cursor to win for 0.8u and to show for 1.5u
#6 Cursor, #4 Tequilita, #7 Divine Miss Grey exacta box for 0.2u each


G3 West Virginia Derby;

#1 Game Over to win for 1.5u and to place for 2u


G1 Whitney;

#1 War Story to win for 1u
#1 War Story, #5 Keen Ice exacta box for 1u each

I'm in Sharkey. Thanks for posting and good luck. Let's cash some tickets!

 

[Sharkey]

I'm in Sharkey. Thanks for posting and good luck. Let's cash some tickets!

Cheers T, and best of luck to you too.

I wanted to play an exacta in the WV Derby as well, but I really couldn't narrow it down and find a good combination to play in that race. I had some interest in using McCormick and Watch Me Whip yet after watching the races of those two they don't really fit at all together from a race shape standpoint. Really hard to see both of them finishing in the top 2 at the line together since each of their chances of success depends on different race shapes. They didn't fit together to me, and there was too many options that do fit, so I'm just going to play the race straight on one horse.

 

[Sharkey]

I guess I'll have to settle for twitter to tell me who wins the WV Derby. Can't find a stream anywhere. Kinda sucks.

 

[Sharkey]

This is a bit of a reach backing Cursor in this race, but she does look good out there on the track before the race. Would love pace meltdown here for all 3 of my horses which is not at all unlikely.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, that wasn't even close.

 

[Sharkey]

Shitty day. The rabbit wasn't much of a rabbit at all setting a 48+ second half mile. He had one assignment and couldn't even do that properly.

Game Over finished 2nd in the WV Derby, so was able to at least salvage something.

 

[t6p]

Shitty day. The rabbit wasn't much of a rabbit at all setting a 48+ second half mile. He had one assignment and couldn't even do that properly.

Game Over finished 2nd in the WV Derby, so was able to at least salvage something.

I was able to catch the two races at Saratoga but I missed the West Virginia. Nice to get a little back on that one so just a small loss for the day. Thanks again for sharing all the knowledge, Shark. Much appreciated.

 

[Sharkey]

I was able to catch the two races at Saratoga but I missed the West Virginia. Nice to get a little back on that one so just a small loss for the day. Thanks again for sharing all the knowledge, Shark. Much appreciated.

I think everybody missed the WV Derby, T. Unless they were at the track. The race was delayed for 20+ minutes for whatever reason and it was apparently ran at the exact same time as the Whitney which was ran on schedule. A 2nd rate track operating like a 2nd rate track even when it comes to their biggest race. Only themselves to blame.

 

[t6p]

I think everybody missed the WV Derby, T. Unless they were at the track. The race was delayed for 20+ minutes for whatever reason and it was apparently ran at the exact same time as the Whitney which was ran on schedule. A 2nd rate track operating like a 2nd rate track even when it comes to their biggest race. Only themselves to blame.

Ah, gotcha. My Mountaineer feed on OTB's website was working but I was trying to do too many things at once and it was over before I got back in front of my laptop.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Arrogate sitting at -200 on Bet365, think I'm going to play that line.

 

[Sharkey]

Arrogate sitting at -200 on Bet365, think I'm going to play that line.

I haven't looked at the race much besides just a quick browsing of the PP's, but my first instinct is to try to beat Arrogate with Baffert's other horse, Collected. I'd expect Arrogate gets bet down to about 1/5 in the pools, so hopefully that means Collected is around 5/1. I'll be okay with those odds I think. Either play it that way and try to gamble a little. Or just pass on the race completely.