Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Hence realistically should be 5/1 as he enters the Derby gates, but because 99% of the public who bet into the pools will be making their selections based off things that don't matter much (highest BSF, famous trainer, the path they took like the Florida Derby, touts who look at unimportant things, simple hype, etc.), his actual odds are going to be much, much higher than that. Probably in the 20/1 range.

 

[Sharkey]

This isn't a new angle for making Derby picks by any means, but it's still one of the more popular angles horseplayers use to help with their selections for that race. History over the last couple of decades has shown that horses who run a sub 38 second final 3/8ths, a sub 13 second final 1/8th, have Buckpasser in an X passing position of the female side of the pedigree (one of the sources for the large heart gene), and from from the Raise A Native sire line, have a pretty great impact value when it comes to both the win spot in the Derby as well as filling the trifecta. I think the impact value is at least double if I'm remembering right. Maybe even close to triple.

According to Stan Caris, who came up with the angle in the first place and then authored the book 'Analyzing the Triple Crown', there's only been 30 horses since 1978 that fit all of the above four angles (sub 38 second final 3F, sub 13 second final 1F, had Buckapasser in an X passing position, and from the Raise A Native sire line). Out of the 30 runners that fit all four going into the Derby, 8 of them won, 7 of them finished in second, and 1 other one finished in third. That's quite powerful.

We'll have two horses this year that fit that angle in Classic Empire and Hence.

 

[Sharkey]

Classic Empire got a 94 BSF and a 96 BRIS rating for his win yesterday, so he'll just barely meet that 95 cutoff we have when combining those two figures. Obviously the ones who finished behind won't be reaching that mark.

 

[Sharkey]

Estimated stride length at the end of the race for the top 5 finishers yesterday, who all have a chance to enter the Derby gates in a few weeks;

Classic Empire - 24.2 feet
Conquest Mo Money - 23.4 feet
Lookin At Lee - 24.1 feet
Sonneteet - 24.4 feet
Malagacy - 21.4 feet

When slowing the race down at the end you can see that both Malagacy and Classic Empire switched to their left lead late in the stretch run. That's usually a sign of a fatigued horse, which I'm certain was the case with Malagacy. But it could also be a sign of a horse having sore feet too and there's a small chance that that was the case with Classic Empire since he had his foot issues a couple of months ago. It was much more likely just due to fatgue, though, as we thought he may be a little short fitness wise, as did both his trainer ("I was questioning his fitness level") and jockey ("he wasn't 100% ready to run") in their post race comments. Conquest Mo Money and Lookin At Lee both got by him pretty quickly on the gallop out after the race too, so being fatigued makes much more sense. But it's something to keep in the back of the mind over the next few weeks to see if maybe there are stories about him being a little sore in the feet.

 

[t6p]

1st - Classic Empire
2nd - Conquest Mo Money
3rd - Lookin At Lee
4th - Sonneteer

Conquest Mo Money (17/1) got beat by a half length by Classic Empire after being up close to a pretty hot pace. He does pay 5/1 to place so that insurance bet allows for a tiny profit. Lookin At Lee and Sonneteer also ran decent and weren't too far behind at the wire.

I ended up getting to watch the race the live. I thought Conquest Mo Money ran really well, pretty frustrating to lose it right at the end like that. But great capping as usual, Shark. All our horses were right in the mix. And of course we made a little bit of money at the end of the day. Thanks again for sharing!

 

[Sharkey]

I ended up getting to watch the race the live. I thought Conquest Mo Money ran really well, pretty frustrating to lose it right at the end like that. But great capping as usual, Shark. All our horses were right in the mix. And of course we made a little bit of money at the end of the day. Thanks again for sharing!

Yeah, we were right there til the last couple of strides, T. It was pretty frustrating to lose out like that right at the end with a pick that went off at such long odds. We weren't too far away from hitting a huge 250/1 exacta as well. Oh well. I guess the bright side is we didn't lose anything and according to the TimeformUS ratings for the race, we were on the horse who had the best performance. But yeah, it was a pretty tough beat.

 

[Sharkey]

Irap flatters Hence last week by winning the Blue Grass. Conquest Mo Money flatters Hence yesterday in the Arkansas Derby by running a close 2nd to the likely Derby favourite. Now all I need is for Hence to flatter Hence a few weeks from now in the Derby itself.

 

[Sharkey]

Here's some early Kentucky Derby PP's from Brisnet if anyone is interested in taking a look at them with only one final prep to go;

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby17.pdf

There, now that I posted them @BluntTrauma21's question last night has me curious now if you guys need any help reading some of the things on there, what to look for, what certain things mean, etc? Shit, I've been linking to them on here for a while now and never stopped to explain what goes into them to anyone if they weren't aware. If anybody has any questions on them by all means. I'll do my best if you find some of things confusing on there.

If you guys click on the PP's there you might notice that Brisnet gives out the pace and winning pars for the Derby. E1 of 93, E2 of 102, LP of 92, and SPD of 102. If you guys scroll down through this year's field there's only one horse who exceeded each of those pars in their final prep race at 9F, although Always Dreaming was very close. Yes it was Hence, of course. Who else right? An E1 of 106, E2 of 108, LP of 93 and SPD of 103. All above the Derby pars. I then went back and checked over some recent Derbys and, while the sample size is pretty small since I only went back a decade to 2007, I was finding that those who can run above par in each of those ratings have had a pretty outstanding record in the Derby over that time. There's only been 15 horses who ran above par for each pace rating in their final prep at 9F, and 4 of them ended up going on to win the Derby, 3 of them finished second, 2 of them finished third, and 1 finished fourth. It includes horses like American Pharoah (1st), Firing Line (2nd), and Frosted (4th) in 2015. California Chrome (1st) in 2014. Revolutionary (3rd) in 2013. Bodemeister (2nd) and Dullahan (3rd) in 2012. And so on. Might be worth something. Or might not.

 

[Sharkey]

For @BluntTrauma21

Here's a little example of what I would classify as a very negative workout for you to take a peak at, bud. This is Silver Dust (light grey horse) who'll be running this weekend in the Arkansas Derby;

http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/s...s-in-59-40-at-oaklawn-park-on-april-7th-2017/

Notice how he's trying to fight the rider at the beginning of the video. The horse is being over aggressive then and continues to be even once the rider lets him loose a little (notice the rider is still leaning back trying to slow him down). Then as they hit the stretch the horse starts to flatten out a little bit, has trouble keeping a straight line, and the rider goes to the whip. When getting the whip the horse offered up no response to it and just continued on at it's own pace. That's a good example right there up a horse working opposite to what the rider wants. The horse is fighting the rider when he wants to run and the rider doesn't want him to. And then in the lane as they came to the wire, the rider wants the horse to give more, even going to the whip, and yet the horse offers up no response to what the rider wants. Or maybe the horse didn't have the energy too after ignoring the rider's wishes earlier in the workout and being overaggressive.

Silver Dust's chart from the race yesterday;

"SILVER DUST broke near the back, advanced to mid pack before a half, pulled up the backstretch toward the inside, had little left for the drive"

So he basically ran the race like he trained. Got over aggressive early and had nothing left late. Watch the video of the race and you can see the jock trying hard as hell to slow him down and get him to relax on the backstretch, but the horse was having nothing to do with it. Ran like his workout. And people thought that, because he got a fast time for that workout, this horse was somehow training "awesome" and shit heading into the race. Ah, yeah. No he wasn't.

 

[Sharkey]

I think I've quoted myself in this thread about 10 times during the last couple of days. Yeah, I'm a loser like that. I admit it.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Sooooooo close! We had it up until literally the last second. Mo Money ran really well, especially considering he did it wire to wire. Value city on those odds, you capped that well Shark.

 

[Sharkey]

I finished doing some research on horses having built a foundation with races over a mile in length and also experience in bigger fields with 10+ horses. What I found going back to the 2000 Derby, so over the last 17 years;

- 15 of the past 17 Derby winners have had at least 3 races previous to the Derby that were over one mile in length
- 40 of the 51 top 3 finishers in the Derby also had at least 3 races previous to the Derby that were over one mile in length
- 11 of the past 17 Derby winners had at least 3 races where they faced a field of 10+ previous to the Derby
- 31 of the 51 top 3 finishers also fall under the same category with having at least 3 races where they were in fields of 10+ prior to the Derby
- 10 of the last 17 winners entered the Derby after having at least 3 races that were over a mile in length and at least 3 races where they saw field sizes of 10+
- 13 of the past 17 winners entered the Derby after having at least 3 races at a more than a mile in length and at least 2 races where they saw field sizes of 10+
- 35 of the 51 top 3 finishers had at least 3 races at more than a mile in length and also 3 races that saw field sizes of 10+ prior to the Derby (a few top 3 finshers with only 2 mile+ races had more than 3 races with 10+ fields)
- 40 of the 51 top 3 finishers had at least 3 races at more than a mile in length and at least 2 races where they saw field sizes of 10+ prior to the Derby

I didn't do an exact count of how many horses fit the above all told, but I did do a count of a few of the years and it's roughly 50/50 that horses are going to have either at least a 6 count (mile+ races and 10+ field sizes) or 5 with a 3/2 split (since mile+ races seem to have a little more value than 10+ fields). This year it's exactly 50/50 based on the ones I counted. Half of them are going to have at least a 6 count or at least 3 races at a mile+ and at least 2 races where they saw 10+ field sizes. The other half won't have neither. I think it may be worth adding as one whole "preparedness" category.

- Have at least a 6 count when combining races that are over a mile in length and that featured 10+ field sizes, or at least 3 races at over a mile with 2 races with 10+ field sizes

Sound good guys?

 

[Sharkey]

So if I added that category at the end of each of the horse profile lines I already did (mile+ races/10+field sizes);

Always Dreaming: 87, 77.5, 99.5 (99) * 9 1/4, 9 1/4, -0 1/2 (X, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.4 feet * 3/1
Girvin: 86.5, 95.5, 95 (96) * 9 1/2, 4 3/4, 4 3/4 (X, P, P) * 1st last race * 22.9 feet * 2/2
Gunnevera: 94, 99.5, 91.5 (102) * 3 1/4, -2 1/2, 3 1/4 (P, T, X) * 3rd last race * ??? * 5/4
Hence: 80.5, 83.5, 98 (93) * 9 3/4, 7, 3 (P, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.3 feet * 4/5
McCraken: 89.5, 97, 92 (90) * 5, 2, 2 (P, T, P) * 3rd last race * 22.2 feet * 3/2
Irish War Cry: 99.5, 69.5, 101.5 (80) * 1 1/4, 10 1/4, -2 3/4 (T, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.1 feet * 3/2
Gormley: 97, 90.5, 93.5 (77) * 1, 5 1/4, 4 (T, X, O) * 1st last race * 22.5 feet * 4/3
Battle of Midway: 83, 88, 93 (71) * 6, 5 1/4, 5 1/4 (P, P, P) * 2nd last race * 22.0 feet * 2/1
Royal Mo: 94.5, 77, 92.5 (70) * 6 1/4, 8, 4 (T, O, T) * 3rd last race * 22.9 feet * 3/3
Practical Joke: 94, 91.5, 95.5 (93) * 3 1/2, 1 , -0 1/2 (P, T, T) * 2nd last race * 21.7 feet * 3/3
J Boys Echo: 88.5, 103, 88.5 (87) * 5 1/4, 1 1/4, 4 (T, T, O) * 4th last race * ??? * 5/4
Tapwrit: 95, 98.5, 81.5 (76) * 4, 1 1/2, 4 3/4 (P, T, O) * 5th last race * ??? * 3/2
Battalion Runner: 98, 93.5, 96.5 (73) * 1, 4 1/4, 1 (T, O, T) * 2nd last race * 21.6 feet * 2/0
Irap: 79.5, 86, 96.5 (92) * 10, 7 1/2, 0 1/4 (O, P, T...giant new top) * 1st * 22.1 feet * 6/2
Patch: 72, 95, 93.5 (94) * 12 3/4, 3, 7 1/2 (T, T, X) * 2nd last race * 22.3 feet * 1/2
State of Honor: 94.5, 96, 93.5 (92) * 4, 4 3/4, 4 (P, P, P) * 2nd last race * 22.0 feet * 5/5

10 of the 16 horses profiled already would meet the standard for that category, but there's quite a few horses who I haven't profiled yet that wouldn't fit the bill (Malagacy, Cloud Computing, Thunder Snow, Fast and Accurate, etc). There would also be a couple from the Arkansas Derby that would get a point in that category after we get the numbers (Classic Empire will, as willl Conquest Mo Money and Lookin At Lee if they enter the Derby). If two-thirds of the eventual Derby field fits that category then I don't know if it can be useful or not beyond just seen as a negative for a horse. But if it's in the 50/50 range as far as the field goes I think we can keep it.

 

[Sharkey]

- A combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final 9F prep of 95 or greater
- A maintain or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS figure over the last 3 races going into the Derby (less than 4 pt drop in either of their last two races)
- Best combined BSF/BRIS came in their last prep at 9F
- Brisnet late pace figure of at least 95 in their final prep at 9F
- Running a new top (T) thorograph figure in their final prep but not drastically so
- Having one of the four positive thorograph patterns over their last two prep races (P, T), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep with 1st being preferred
- Showed a stride length of at least 23.5 feet at the end of their final prep race at 9F
- Have at least a 6 count when combining races that are over a mile in length and that featured 10+ field sizes, or at least 3 races at over a mile with 2 races with 10+ field sizes

2016 - Nyquist won the Derby and checked in 6 of those categories going into the race
2015 - American Pharoah checked in 8
2014 - California Chrome checked in 8
2013 - Orb checked in 8
2012 - I'll Have Another checked in 5
2011 - Animal Kingdom checked in 9
2010 - Super Saver checked in 7
2009 - Mine That Bird checked in 5
2008 - Big Brown checked in 8
2007 - Street Sense checked in 5
2006 - Barbaro checked in 9
2005 - Giacomo checked in 6
2004 - Smarty Jones checked in 6
2003 - Funny Cide checked in 9
2002 - War Emblem checked in 8
2001 - Monrachos checked in 6
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus checked in 9

Each of the past 17 Derby winners checked the box in at least 5 of those above categories we have, with just over half of them (9 of 17) checking the box in either 8 or 9 of them. Might be something to keep in mind once we get close to the race and start making some picks.

 

[Sharkey]

If I use the 5 category cutoff I'm going to end up playing against a bunch of horses who are very likely to be amongst the top betting choices for the race; Always Dreaming (4), Irish War Cry (4), McCraken (2), Gunnevera (2 or 3 depending on stride length). Classic Empire looks like he's going to be borderline too as it looks like he's going to check in either 4 or 5 depending what his late pace figure comes back as for that race this weekend. Once I have the group that checks in at least 5 categories I can start making some decisions from there. Such as like with Irap, who is going to profile well, but whom I'm not terribly anxious to play in the Derby since, amongst some other things, his big new top on thorograph points directly at a regression for his next race even if it wasn't a demanding race like the Derby. As of today I'd rather play a horse like State of Honor to hang around and grab a piece even though that one only profiles in 4 categories. But he wasn't too far away from checking in 6, though, and he will be a big price in the Derby. Plus he's ran well for me both times I bet him (including the 2nd in the TB Derby to round out an okay exacta), so there's that too.

 

[Sharkey]

Out of the horses that have been profiled into those categories already, Hence (8), Practical Joke (7), Girvin (5) and Irap (5) are the only ones who check in at least 5 categories. If Lookin At Lee makes the Derby gates he should check in at least 5 as well, and is probably more like 6 or 7. Hope he's in there as he is one of the few legitimate 10F horses in this year's field, and I've been interested in using him as a Derby "bomber" to round out exotic tickets for months now. Just need him in the gate. As mentioned, Classic Empire may check in 5 too depending on his late pace number.

If I had to make a Derby top 5 right now based on my interest in betting them nearly three weeks out;

1 - Hence
2 - Lookin At Lee
(daylight)
3 - Practical Joke
4 - State of Honor
5 - Girvin

The top two look like they should handle 10F as good as anybody in the field. The bottom three, meh, not so much. But in a race where there's going to be 15+ horses who look questionable for 10F I could see the scenarios where one or two of those three hang around til the end on wobbly legs and pick up a piece. If Classic Empire does end up checking in 5 categories I could see myself using him some here and there but not relying on him much.

 

[Sharkey]

Conquest Mo Money might check in 5 categories as well if they decide to enter him. Should have a maintain or improved BSF/BRIS numbers with possibly his best combined number coming in his last prep race. May get a new top on thorograph. Actually I'm very certain he will considering how wide he was around the 1st turn. Should have one of the positve thorograph patterns too. Finished 2nd last race and will check in the new "preparedness" category. Yeah, he should check in at least 5 and maybe even 6.

So if all these guys get into the gate we're looking at possibly 7 at most that check in at least 5 categories. No more than that. 7 horses is much easier to work with than a full 20 horses.

 

[Sharkey]

By the time a horse like Irish War Cry gets out for his first and only workout over the track, Hence would have had four workouts over the track already. That's if Irish War Cry even works out over the track. His one workout may happen elsewhere.

P.S. It's going to be a long 19 days.

 

[t6p]

Conquest Mo Money might check in 5 categories as well if they decide to enter him. Should have a maintain or improved BSF/BRIS numbers with possibly his best combined number coming in his last prep race. May get a new top on thorograph. Actually I'm very certain he will considering how wide he was around the 1st turn. Should have one of the positve thorograph patterns too. Finished 2nd last race and will check in the new "preparedness" category. Yeah, he should check in at least 5 and maybe even 6.

So if all these guys get into the gate we're looking at possibly 7 at most that check in at least 5 categories. No more than that. 7 horses is much easier to work with than a full 20 horses.

Question for ya Shark (possibly a stupid one). If Conquest Mo Money does run in the Derby, my assumption would be he'd be at pretty long odds, correct? I'm just basing that on the fact that he was 17/1 in the Arkansas last weekend.

 

[Sharkey]

Question for ya Shark (possibly a stupid one). If Conquest Mo Money does run in the Derby, my assumption would be he'd be at pretty long odds, correct? I'm just basing that on the fact that he was 17/1 in the Arkansas last weekend.

Yeah, he would be, T. I'm guessing he'd be in the 30/1 range at least. Maybe even higher. The general betting public is likely to see that performance of his this weekend as a fluke more than anything even though we had him pegged as a pretty good horse. Probably a similar situation to a few years ago in 2011 when Dialed In barely beat Shackleford by a nose in the Florida Derby yet Dialed In was bet down to 5/1 Derby favourite and Shackleford was largely ignore going off at 23/1. I would think Conquest Mo Money goes off higher than did Shackleford even just because the public is going to view this yeat as having more options that they would have in 2011. Shackleford ended up finsing a good 4th in the Derby itself (well ahead of Dialed In) and then went on to win the Preakness and some other big races.