Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

@BluntTrauma21

Using our buddy Creator again as an example, here's another way you can judge a horse by it's ears in the races themselves. Watch Creator's ears in the short piece of video that's shown after the race was done, and just before the TVG advertisement came up;



Ears pricked straight up and down if not slightly forward. That's a horse that's signalling to his rider that there's still more in the tazHC93B0OBpgnk and he'd be willing to do more running if the rider asked it of him. The horse is just waiting for the command to do so. If you watch a horse after a race that, while he may have his ears up a little, if they're leaning backwards then that's a horse who's pretty much saying "I did enough today, thanks" and really doesn't want to do any more. If watching video of these Derby runners' prep races before the Derby itself, that's one of the signs you can use that'll help you decide who can handle the 10F distance.

Here's an example of this from a couple of this year's Arkansas Derby runners. Watch the gallop out between Malagacy and Sonneteer between the 3:05 and 3:20 mark;



Malagacy's ears, which are trying to lay down to the side after the race and then start leaning back, are that of a horse saying "Oh, dear lord. Please tell this jerk on my back not to ask me to do any more today. I've done enough".

Sonneteer's ears, which are perked straight up during that portion of the gallop out, are that of a horse saying "What, that's it? Why are we slowing down? Come on dude. I still got some run in me so lets get going again and have some fun".

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

Thin around the midsection, significant amount of loose skin in the thigh area, and a whole lot of nervous kidney sweat from just taking a quick tour of the paddock area. Yeah, I'll pass on that one at 8/5, thanks.

 

[Sharkey]

Give this poor guy a meal for heaven's sake;

 

[Sharkey]

I'm very likely to go this way in the Arkansas Derby tomorrow;

- Conquest Mo Money to win for 1u
- Sonneteer to win for 1u
- Conquest Mo Money, Sonneteer, and Lookin At Lee exacta box for 0.5u (3u total)

Three 15/1 shots with more than enough to like with each of them in this spot. W/P bets on each of them wouldn't be a bad idea either, and I thought about it, but decided not to spend too much on this group. Don't really need to at those odds either. I feel like gambling a little bit with these guys with a "go big or go home" thought process. Petrov was a tough call and the last one I cut after watching his Rebel again. Even though he basically finished in a tie for 2nd at the wire he didn't look all that appealing doing so after flattening out late and shortening up his stride quite a bit. Not sure he's going to like the 9F distance as much as others here considering he's likely going to be sitting fairly close to a pace that should be plenty faster than what he saw last time. This week he does have the look of a happy and healthy horse, though, so it wouldn't shock me if he runs a good race. Malagacy is similar. Looks happy and healthy as well. Both of those look up against from a pace & distance standpoint, although there are definitely scenarios where they can run a good race to finish well. I prefer the above three, though, especially considering their prices.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Followed those, Shark, thanks as always bud. Been a crazy week, probably won't be around for the races but hopefully I can get an eye on them for a couple mins if I happen to around a tv. I miss this sport, hopefully we have a good day. GL boys.

 

[Sharkey]

Followed those, Shark, thanks as always bud. Been a crazy week, probably won't be around for the races but hopefully I can get an eye on them for a couple mins if I happen to around a tv. I miss this sport, hopefully we have a good day. GL boys.

Well, we're up against it from an odds point of view, so I'm really not expecting to cash anything. But I do think the chances of hitting something are much better than the odds will say, and if we do hit we'll have a very good day. Maybe even outstanding. We crushed this race last year with a long priced winner and a big exacta, so hopefully our luck with this race continues this year.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, I'm chickening out a little and think I'm better off making a couple of place bets as well with the win bets on both Conquest Mo Money and Sonneteer. If I play them to place for 2u each and one of them does manage to finish 2nd to a horse I'm not playing then that should just about allow me to break even on the day. Gives me a little bit of insurance anyways. Also, if one of those does win and none of my plays run well that should give me about 2.5 times the return on my investment for this race. It's not that much different than the same scenario (have the winner, others finish back) with just the win bets, which would return 3 times the investment. My maximum return on investment isn't that much different adding some place bets either (and total return obviously much greater), so I'm not seeing any negative at all in playing those for some insurance reasons save for the potential to lose more if nothing hits. I think the positives greatly outweigh the negatives, though.

- Conquest Mo Money to win for 1u and to place for 2u
- Sonneteer to win for 1u and to place for 2u
- Conquest Mo Money, Sonneteer, and Lookin At Lee exacta box for 0.5u (3u)

That's it. All done.

 

[Sharkey]

If Conquest Mo Money and Sonneteer finish 1st and 2nd in either order I may have to call upon a security escort before I head out the door. Well, not really. But cashing a 15/1 win bet, two 4/1 place bets, and an exacta that will probably be 150/1 or 200/1 would make for an pretty outstanding day. And if Conquest Mo Money does win today, how good is Hence looking going into the Derby? Not only is he going to profile better than anybody in this year's Derby field, but having beat both Conquest Mo Money and Irap in the Sunland Derby, that would mean that he's the only horse that beat two major prep race winners in their 3 year-old campaign so far. At least I think he'd be the only one to do it this year. Hence won't be 30/1 on Derby day if this one wins today. But he is still going to be largely ignored at the windows in the Derby for the most part.

 

[t6p]

Yeah, I'm chickening out a little and think I'm better off making a couple of place bets as well with the win bets on both Conquest Mo Money and Sonneteer. If I play them to place for 2u each and one of them does manage to finish 2nd to a horse I'm not playing then that should just about allow me to break even on the day. Gives me a little bit of insurance anyways. Also, if one of those does win and none of my plays run well that should give me about 2.5 times the return on my investment for this race. It's not that much different than the same scenario (have the winner, others finish back) with just the win bets, which would return 3 times the investment. My maximum return on investment isn't that much different adding some place bets either (and total return obviously much greater), so I'm not seeing any negative at all in playing those for some insurance reasons save for the potential to lose more if nothing hits. I think the positives greatly outweigh the negatives, though.

- Conquest Mo Money to win for 1u and to place for 2u
- Sonneteer to win for 1u and to place for 2u
- Conquest Mo Money, Sonneteer, and Lookin At Lee exacta box for 0.5u (3u)

That's it. All done.

I love a longshot Shark! Tailing everything as usual. I have a friend coming in from out of town so I'll probably miss the race unfortunately. But best of luck to you and everyone else playing today. Thanks again for posting my man.

 

[Sharkey]

I love a longshot Shark! Tailing everything as usual. I have a friend coming in from out of town so I'll probably miss the race unfortunately. But best of luck to you and everyone else playing today. Thanks again for posting my man.

You got it, T. Let's end this prep season on a high note shall we? After a rough last couple of weeks hopefully we can.

 

[Sharkey]

Senior Investment, who we backed as a longshot a few weeks ago in the Louisiana Derby, just won the G3 Lexington by a nose at the wire. A "Derby prep" race in a way, but with it only paying out 10 pts to the winner it really doesn't have much impact on it's own as far as making the Derby gates. Nice to see that one run well, though.

 

[Sharkey]

1st - Classic Empire
2nd - Conquest Mo Money
3rd - Lookin At Lee
4th - Sonneteer

Conquest Mo Money (17/1) got beat by a half length by Classic Empire after being up close to a pretty hot pace. He does pay 5/1 to place so that insurance bet allows for a tiny profit. Lookin At Lee and Sonneteer also ran decent and weren't too far behind at the wire.

 

[Sharkey]

...and only a few people are going to know that going into the Derby.

 

[Sharkey]

This is a pretty tough beat when your 17/1 shot runs such a game race fending off challenges left and right only to lose it in the last couple of strides;

 

[Sharkey]

Lookin At Lee is sitting 22nd on the Derby points board, but with the injury to Mastery and the owners of Epicharis already saying they're not going to the Derby, he'll be in the gates in a few weeks. Very nice. I've always been interested is using him in the Derby and he should profile quite nicely once we get the final numbers for this race today.

 

[Sharkey]

Conquest Mo Money ran the opening 1/4 in 22.75 and then ran the last 1/8th in about 12.60 after an extended stretch duel that began early in the far turn. Gutsy performance from a pretty good horse who, while not the prettiest runner ever, always shows up and gives his best. He only cost $8,500 last fall yet has already earned over $500,000 so far this year since he was purchased. Not too shabby of a return I'd say. Not sure I'm going to be too anxious to play him in the Derby considering he's already raced 5 times this year. But we'll see.

 

[Sharkey]

I spoke too soon about Lookin At Lee being in as he's sitting 22nd right now after including the situations Mastery and Epicharis. He'll need a couple of defections. I would guess Malagacy is one since the owners & trainers would have to know he can't get the 10F Derby distance. My guess is that Cloud Computing would skip out on the Derby as well and maybe look to the Travers later in the year instead. Conquest Mo Money hasn't been nominated for the Derby yet either, so that could drop Lee down to 23rd in points. Untrapped is the horse ahead of him, though, and since Steve Asmussen trains both, I'd imagine he'd prefer Lee enter over Untrapped if he has any say in the matter. Plus there's always a chance for a defection or two due to injury or illness over the next couple of weeks, although I hope not. I think there's a good chance Lee is in the gates come Derby time, though. Hope so.

 

[Sharkey]

Classic Empire showed a estimated stride length well above the 23.5 foot cutoff at the end of the Arkansas Derby, as did both Lookin At Lee and Sonneteer if those two happen to find their way into the Derby gates. They were all in the 24.0 to 24.5 range. Conquest Mo Money just missed at 23.4 feet, which is what he showed in the Sunland Derby.

I don't know what the numbers are going to be for those guys yet, but I'm thinking at least two, maybe three of those are going to check the boxes in at least half the Derby categories we have. There might even be a chance that all four of them do in fact. It would be nice to have a couple of more options to look at because I got to say, I'm not terribly excited to play horses like Practical Joke, Irap, and even Always Dreaming despite them checking in half the categories already. Even Girvin is a little iffy to me despite checking in more than half.

 

[Sharkey]

This isn't a new angle for making Derby picks by any means, but it's still one of the more popular angles horseplayers use to help with their selections for that race. History over the last couple of decades has shown that horses who run a sub 38 second final 3/8ths, a sub 13 second final 1/8th, have Buckpapser in an X passing position of the female side of the pedigree (one of the sources for the large heart gene), and from from the Raise A Native sire line, have a pretty great impact value when it comes to both the win spot in the Derby as well as filling the trifecta. I think the impact value is at least double if I'm remembering right. Maybe even close to triple.