Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

My best guess is that Conquest Mo Money will profile something like this with the above categories;

82, 93, 94 (90-ish) * 10, 5, 2 (P, T, T) * 2nd last race * 23.4 ft * 3/3

Classic Empire beat him by a half length and got a 95 combined BSF/BRIS figure, so Conquest Mo Money will only be a point behind him. He'll have the maintain or improve BSF/BRIS numbers, though, and my guess is that this last race is the highest of those. He got a 99 BRIS for the Sunland Derby, but since Hence only got a 93 BSF, that likely puts Conquest Mo Money in the 87 BSF range or thereabouts considering margin of victory by Hence. My late pace number for him is a complete guess. He should get a new top from Saturday's race considering how much ground he lost in the 1st turn, and going into the race I seem to remember him having a 10 and 5 over his last two races. Finished 2nd last race and has had 3 races over a mile and 3 races with 10+field sizes. Yeah, he should check in at least 5 categories, and probably 6. Shit, it may even be 7 since he's only just a touch short on my estimated stride length, which I could certainly be off by a point or two on. My big concern with him is the amount of racing he's already done this year (5 races since Jan 6th) and the fact that he's going to be asked to enter a demanding race like the Derby off only 3 weeks of rest after already running a lot so far this year (the Derby would be his 6th race this year already). Some horses can handle a schedule like that, but not too many. If I owned him I'd think about giving him a little rest and then maybe looking at the Preakness instead which he'd be better suited for regardless. If he does enter the Derby and we are thinking about playing him, he'd be one to watch really close in his workout(s) leading up to the race to see if he's displaying good energy.
 
Yeah, he would be, T. I'm guessing he'd be in the 30/1 range at least. Maybe even higher. The general betting public is likely to see that performance of his this weekend as a fluke more than anything even though we had him pegged as a pretty good horse. Probably a similar situation to a few years ago in 2011 when Dialed In barely beat Shackleford by a nose in the Florida Derby yet Dialed In was bet down to 5/1 Derby favourite and Shackleford was largely ignore going off at 23/1. I would think Conquest Mo Money goes off higher than did Shackleford even just because the public is going to view this yeat as having more options that they would have in 2011. Shackleford ended up finsing a good 4th in the Derby itself (well ahead of Dialed In) and then went on to win the Preakness and some other big races.

I should have mentioned another little comparison I made between Conquest Mo Money and Shackleford when I was rewatching that race from this weekend yesterday. When Conquest Mo Money and Malagacy were battling in the stretch I thought to myself "Who's the son of Shackleford here?" just because Conquest Mo Money reminded me so much of him with the way both he and Shackleford went about their running. Head way down with that grinding, hard trying style. If I didn't know that Malagacy was really the one who is the son of Shackleford and you asked me which one was, I would have said Conquest Mo Money without a second thought.
 
"The winning Beyer Speed Figure of the Sunland Derby, won by Hence, has been adjusted to 97 from its original 93, according to Andrew Beyer. Irap and Conquest Mo Money, second in the Arkansas Derby, both exited the Sunland Derby."

http://www.drf.com/news/cloud-computing-might-skip-kentucky-derby

Doesn't change much of what we're doing here, but Hence's combined BSF/BRIS figure now goes up from a 98 to 100.

Glad to see that Chad Brown is leaning towards bypassing the Derby with Cloud Computing. It's probably in the best interest of the horse to do so, and selfishly speaking, that boosts Lookin At Lee up one more spot on the leaderboard if they decide to skip it.
 
Updated Derby PP's courtesy of Brisnet, which includes the Arkansas Derby;

http://interactives.courier-journal.com/docs/derby2017/derby.pdf

Classic Empire gets a 97 late pace rating in his win on Saturday, so he will in fact check in 5 of the categories we have. Combined BSF/BRIS of 95 in last 9F prep, late of 95 or above, won last race, an end race stride length of 23.5 or above, and a 4/3 in the preparedness factor. I haven't seen his thorograph number for the race, though, so I can't do the profile on him as of yet. But it's not going to matter much anyways since his thorograph pattern is going to be pretty ugly (his Holy Bull was an X race), and I doubt very much he ran a new top in the race this weekend. At best he'll be going into the race on an X,P pattern and maybe even an X,O depending what they gave him for the Arkansas Derby. But he does check in 5 categories regardless of what his thorograph numbers say, so I'll give him some consideration once we get closer to the race.

On a different note, I've noticed that others who keep their eye on this game are starting to take note of Hence too after this weekend. That's too bad. I mean, it's not going to matter too much once the odds are established since the vast majority of the money put into the Derby pools are going to be from the general public who only bet a couple of races a year. But the attention he's got over the last couple of days is going to have a small effect on what odds he goes off as come Derby time. I was hoping he'd get completely ignored by everybody, which was probably wishful thinking. If a schmuck like me can see him as being a legitimate contender then I guess I should expect others to as well.

Also, TimeformUS released an early pace projection for the Derby based on who's in the field as of now if anybody is interested;

https://timeformusblog.com/2017/04/17/kentucky-derby-2017-pace-projector-the-first-look/
 


By the time a horse like Irish War Cry gets out for his first and only workout over the track, Hence would have had four workouts over the track already. That's if Irish War Cry even works out over the track. His one workout may happen elsewhere.

P.S. It's going to be a long 19 days.


A short little video clip of Hence's workout from yesterday morning;



Hence had the fastest of 16 workouts at that 5F distance today and he did it with very little urging judging by that short video. He also beat a speed horse like Local Hero to the line while having the disadvantaged inside position, and then proceeded to have a very strong gallop out according to the observers who watched the workout.

I've seen Hence listed at 25/1 on a couple of sites that have posted early Derby odds. You like value?
 
Updated Derby winner odds via 5dimes (all horses have action regardless if they run):

Classic Empire +475
Always Dreaming +565
Irish War Cry +650
McCraken +1000
Gunnevera +1200
Thunder Snow +1500
Gormley +1550
Practical Joke +1600
Girvin +1650
Irap +1800
Tapwrit +2000
Hence +2150
Battalion Runner +2200
Malagacy +2450
J Boys Echo +2600
Battle of Midway +3000
Lookin At Lee +3125
Cloud Computing +3200
Patch +3750
State of Honor +4000
Untrapped +4500
Royal Mo +5000
Fast and Accurate +7000

@Sharkey I know you mentioned previously you felt like Hence would go off around 20/1. But based on your last couple of posts I'm considering throwing a little bit of money at that +2150 now. Any thoughts?
 
Updated Derby winner odds via 5dimes (all horses have action regardless if they run):

Classic Empire +475
Always Dreaming +565
Irish War Cry +650
McCraken +1000
Gunnevera +1200
Thunder Snow +1500
Gormley +1550
Practical Joke +1600
Girvin +1650
Irap +1800
Tapwrit +2000
Hence +2150
Battalion Runner +2200
Malagacy +2450
J Boys Echo +2600
Battle of Midway +3000
Lookin At Lee +3125
Cloud Computing +3200
Patch +3750
State of Honor +4000
Untrapped +4500
Royal Mo +5000
Fast and Accurate +7000

@Sharkey I know you mentioned previously you felt like Hence would go off around 20/1. But based on your last couple of posts I'm considering throwing a little bit of money at that +2150 now. Any thoughts?

As long as you don't make too big of a commitment since it looks like you'll be locked in regardless (there's always a slim chance a horse gets scratched due to injury in training, illness or something) then yeah, I don't think that's a bad bet at all, T. Based on the chatter the last few days I'm guessing Hence is sitting in the 15/1 to 20/1 range in the pools come Derby time, so I think you'll be getting a little bit of value there. The chances of him coming down with something that causes a scratch isn't 0%. But it's not like it's going to be nearly as high as 5% either. I think you're getting pretty good value with that line. +2500 would be even better. But the line you're offered looks okay too just as long as you don't play it too big.
 
As long as you don't make too big of a commitment since it looks like you'll be locked in regardless (there's always a slim chance a horse gets scratched due to injury in training, illness or something) then yeah, I don't think that's a bad bet at all, T. Based on the chatter the last few days I'm guessing Hence is sitting in the 15/1 to 20/1 range in the pools come Derby time, so I think you'll be getting a little bit of value there. The chances of him coming down with something that causes a scratch isn't 0%. But it's not like it's going to be nearly as high as 5% either. I think you're getting pretty good value with that line. +2500 would be even better. But the line you're offered looks okay too just as long as you don't play it too big.

Thanks, Shark. I was thinking 0.5u and that's what I ended up going with.
 
In his latest Derby Dozen which was released earlier today, Steve Haskin ranks Hence 9th (not sure Haskin has ever ranked him either besides now either) and starts his writeup on him by saying;

"It looks like his bandwagon is filling up fast, and I can see him moving up the list as we get closer to the Derby."

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kent...april-18-2017-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

I mentioned something like that a few posts ago, and the attention he's gotten from people who keep their eye on the game has all basically come within the last few days. It's unfortunate. Unless some filthy rich type goes out and makes a million dollar bet on him just before the race begins the attention he's gotten shouldn't affect his odds much because the attention is coming from a small minority of the people who will be betting the Derby. But I'd still rather if he went largely ignored. But with Conquest Mo Money validating the Sunland Derby form after Irap did the same the week before it was too much to expect I guess. I'm sure the fact that Hence is "working brilliantly" (as Haskin put it) and announcing himself as a contender in his workouts over the track has something to do with some taking notice of him too.
 


Happy to see this news. One reason is that I would have made a decision if I wanted to use him or not in the Derby since he'd probably profile well enough. But I also think he's a horse that could use a little break before racing again, and do so in a race like the Preakness that will be better suited for him. Plus, it moves Lookin At Lee (who I would be more interested in using for the Derby) up one spot on the board and pretty much ensures that he'll be in the Derby gates. Good news all around. Both for the horse and for my decision making process.
 
Local Hero is sitting 25th in points now with decisions still to be made on horses like Cloud Computing, Thunder Snow, Malagacy, Untrapped and maybe one or two others. I'd probably be laughing my ass off if Local Hero got into the gates since, as we know, he is a pure early speed horse who happens to be trained by Steve Asmussen. The same trainer of both Hence and Lookin At Lee who obviously see their chances improve the more pace that's signed on for the race. I'd say it's unlikely he gets in. But the possibility is certainly there. Filfee wabbit.
 
Always Dreaming (4): 87, 77.5, 99.5 (99) * 9 1/4, 9 1/4, -0 1/2 (X, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.4 feet * 3/1
Girvin (5): 86.5, 95.5, 95 (96) * 9 1/2, 4 3/4, 4 3/4 (X, P, P) * 1st last race * 22.9 feet * 2/2
Gunnevera (3): 94, 99.5, 91.5 (102) * 3 1/4, -2 1/2, 3 1/4 (P, T, X) * 3rd last race * ??? * 5/4
Hence (8): 80.5, 83.5, 100 (93) * 9 3/4, 7, 3 (P, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.3 feet * 4/5
McCraken (2): 89.5, 97, 92 (90) * 5, 2, 2 (P, T, P) * 3rd last race * 22.2 feet * 3/2
Irish War Cry (4): 99.5, 69.5, 101.5 (80) * 1 1/4, 10 1/4, -2 3/4 (T, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.1 feet * 3/2
Gormley (2): 97, 90.5, 93.5 (77) * 1, 5 1/4, 4 (T, X, O) * 1st last race * 22.5 feet * 4/3
Battle of Midway (3): 83, 88, 93 (71) * 6, 5 1/4, 5 1/4 (P, P, P) * 2nd last race * 22.0 feet * 2/1
Royal Mo (2): 94.5, 77, 92.5 (70) * 6 1/4, 8, 4 (T, O, T) * 3rd last race * 22.9 feet * 3/3
Practical Joke (7): 94, 91.5, 95.5 (93) * 3 1/2, 1 , -0 1/2 (P, T, T) * 2nd last race * 21.7 feet * 3/3
J Boys Echo (1): 88.5, 103, 88.5 (87) * 5 1/4, 1 1/4, 4 (T, T, O) * 4th last race * ??? * 5/4
Tapwrit (1): 95, 98.5, 81.5 (76) * 4, 1 1/2, 4 3/4 (P, T, O) * 5th last race * ??? * 3/2
Battalion Runner (2): 98, 93.5, 96.5 (73) * 1, 4 1/4, 1 (T, O, P) * 2nd last race * 21.6 feet * 2/0
Irap (5): 79.5, 86, 96.5 (92) * 10, 7 1/2, 0 1/4 (O, P, T...giant new top) * 1st * 22.1 feet * 6/2
Patch (2): 72, 95, 93.5 (94) * 12 3/4, 3, 7 1/2 (T, T, X) * 2nd last race * 22.3 feet * 1/2
State of Honor (4): 94.5, 96, 93.5 (92) * 4, 4 3/4, 4 (P, P, P) * 2nd last race * 22.0 feet * 5/5

...added;

Classic Empire (5): 105, 86.5, 95 (97) * 0, 4 1/2, 2 1/2 (T, X, O) * 1st last race * 24.3 ft * 4/3
Malagacy (0): 100, 93, 91.5 (89) * -1 1/2, 4, 3 (T, X, X) * 5th last race * 21.4 ft * 2/2


I also did a quick count of how many categories each of these guys check in and those are in brackets behind their names. For the three horses I don't have stride lengths for as of yet I just guessed. Gunnevera has always showed good stride length at the end of his races, and considerin the way he was finishing his last race I gave him credit for at least 23.5. Tapwrit I didn't give credit to, though, even though he's another horse who showed stride length at the end of his previous races. His last race seemed to be too bad for him to have that same length. I've never seen J Boys Echo show that stride length in the best of his races, nevermind a dull race from him like his last. No credit for him either in that category.
 
Conquest Mo Money is going to have a nice P, T, T thorograph pattern going into the Preakness;

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/conquestmomoneytg.pdf

If you look near the top left you'll see the thorograph pattern in bold and it gives you the percentages of how horses run their next race with a particular pattern. That's for any race, though, and not specific to the Derby. Those with a P, T, T pattern run a new top 30% of the time in their next race, pair a top 28% of the time, run an off race 23% of the time, and an X race 19% of the time. Based strictly on his pattern, Conquest Mo Money has a 58% chance to run as good or better than he has ever ran before in his next race.


Now compare that to Classic Empire and his T, X, O pattern;

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/classicempiretg.pdf


Or better yet, Malagacy, who has about the ugliest thorograph pattern you're going to find with his T, X, X pattern;

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/malagacytg.pdf
 
If I use the 5 category cutoff I'm going to end up playing against a bunch of horses who are very likely to be amongst the top betting choices for the race; Always Dreaming (4), Irish War Cry (4), McCraken (2), Gunnevera (2 or 3 depending on stride length). Classic Empire looks like he's going to be borderline too as it looks like he's going to check in either 4 or 5 depending what his late pace figure comes back as for that race this weekend. Once I have the group that checks in at least 5 categories I can start making some decisions from there. Such as like with Irap, who is going to profile well, but whom I'm not terribly anxious to play in the Derby since, amongst some other things, his big new top on thorograph points directly at a regression for his next race even if it wasn't a demanding race like the Derby. As of today I'd rather play a horse like State of Honor to hang around and grab a piece even though that one only profiles in 4 categories. But he wasn't too far away from checking in 6, though, and he will be a big price in the Derby. Plus he's ran well for me both times I bet him (including the 2nd in the TB Derby to round out an okay exacta), so there's that too.

And here's some historical thorograph data that suggests Irap is very likely to regress in the Derby;

Since thorograph came to be in 1982, no horse has won the Derby after improving their top by 5 or more points in their last prep and/or improving by 5 or more points over their last two prep races. Improving by 3 or 4 points is perfectly okay, and in fact we've seen 9 Derby winners in the last 35 years (and plenty top 3 Derby finishers too) who showed improvement in the 3 1/4 to 4 1/2 range in their final prep. But a 5 or more improvement has produced none.

I don't have access to the thorograph numbers from the full fields from 1982-1996, but I do from 1997 on. In the last 20 runnings of the Derby we had 51 individual horses who entered the gates after improving their top by 5 or more points in their last prep and/or improving by 5 or more points over their last two prep races. Out of those 51 runners who did so, we saw 0 who won the Derby, 0 who finished 2nd, only 1 who finished 3rd, and then 5 who finished 4th. Those 51 starters produced a 0-0-1-5 record. And there were plenty who were well backed by the public as well, including 11 of them who went off at odds of 10/1 or lower. None of those 11 were amongst the few who were able to finish top 4, though. Out of those 51 runners only 1 ran a new top in the Derby (a longshot who was slow to begin with and finished 5th), 8 were able to pair their previous top, 14 ran an off race, and 28 ran an X race in the Derby. Only 17.6% were able to run at least as well as they ever did before, which is way below the Derby average for all runners that is in the 30-35% range. 83.4% of those types regressed in the Derby, including 55% of them who regressed enough to be given an X race.

There. I've mentioned that a big new top is a negative a few times in this thread already, so now we have some historical data to back that up.

Three horses look like easy plays against with this above information, as well as other angles;


Always Dreaming: 87, 77.5, 99.5 (99) * 9 1/4, 9 1/4, -0 1/2 (X, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.4 feet * 3/1

Irish War Cry: 99.5, 69.5, 101.5 (80) * 1 1/4, 10 1/4, -2 3/4 (T, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.1 feet * 3/2

Irap: 79.5, 86, 96.5 (92) * 10, 7 1/2, 0 1/4 (O, P, T...giant new top) * 1st * 22.1 feet * 6/2


Always Dreaming has the double whammy of getting a 6 point new top in his last race, as well as the almost 10 point improvement over his last two preps. Actually, he could be given a triple whammy based on that bit of information I gave about his trainer a couple of days ago which stated that Pletcher has brought 9 horses to the Derby after prepping in Florida (like Always Dreaming did this year), and out of those 9, 3 of them ran an O race in the Derby with the other 6 running an X race.

Irish War Cry also looks weak with this above angle with the huge 13 point improvement over last two, and especially so considering he's already regressed badly once when only given one single workout going into a race (as he regressed after his last new top) which is something I pointed out as well a few days ago when mentioning his career pattern of waiting 3 weeks before a workout again after each of his races so far. According to Steve Haskin, he'll be doing the same once again, as he'll only have the one workout before the Derby which will take place the Saturday before. the only time he entered a race off of one workout was the Fountain of Youth when he finished 7th beaten by 21 lengths.

Both Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry are going to be made 2 of the top 3 betting choices in the Derby by the public. Do you want to take 6/1 on either of them in the hopes that not only can they buck history outright, but also buck the history of things that are more specific to them (AD's trainer, and IWC's one workout plan)?
 
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I will say, though, if there's any year where some of the historical data trends get turned upside down a little this would seem to be the year just because this year's field is filled with knocks against type horses.
 
I'm down to seven who I'm considering using in some capacity or another; Girvin, Hence, Practical Joke, State of Honor, Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer (if he enters), and Classic Empire, who may be the toughest to make a decision on for a few different reasons. Still plenty of time, though. I'd like to get down to five to play in the Derby.
 
Lookin At Lee: 85, 88.5, 92.5 (107) * ?, ?, ? (?, ?, ?) * 3rd last race * 24.1 ft * 6/5

Without even knowing what his thorograph numbers are yet (and he should check in at least one category there, whether it be pattern or a new top last out...maybe both), Lee already checks the box in at least five categories. Maintain or improve his combined BSF/BRIS number. Best BSF/BRIS came in last race at 9F. Late pace number of 95 or greater. A stride length at the end of the race of at least 23.5 feet. And a 6/5 on the 'preparedness' factor.
 
hi total noob here, and maybe this isn't the right place to post this...but what are the go-to online resources for learning about horse racing and wagering? I don't know very much at all but would love to learn much more! TIA
 

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