Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

JayE said:
My dad has been deep into Gulf Stream as a nice place to gauge and wager. I'll have to see his interpretation of all of this. He's getting old and restless running out of tracks up in Canada (you heard about Northlands, I trust, or we have talked about it, we may have talked about it).
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Yeah, we talked about the closing on Northlands in the past, Jay. Actually you're who I originally got that news from.

I don't play more than a few races a year at Gulfstream myself (Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth, maybe one or two others). I may not even play this Pegasus race either unless I can find something of value to round out a trifecta. Inside speed is king at the track, though, and maybe more than any other track in the US. Everybody knows it too, so it's generally hard to find much value at this track when compared to other tracks that play more fairly or offer up variance to how they're playing.
 
Sharkey said:
Yeah, we talked about the closing on Northlands in the past, Jay. Actually you're who I originally got that news from.

I don't play more than a few races a year at Gulfstream myself (Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth, maybe one or two others). I may not even play this Pegasus race either unless I can find something of value to round out a trifecta. Inside speed is king at the track, though, and maybe more than any other track in the US. Everybody knows it too, so it's generally hard to find much value at this track when compared to other tracks that play more fairly or offer up variance to how they're playing.
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I'll have to see. I've been much more tentative with my sports betting, too. I've got to pull the trigger here a bit.

I was in Van a week ago and was around the track. I kind of want to check out Hastings in the spring. I was only ever out when I was young when my dad raced there (a bit more but not too much else). The purses are getting smaller and smaller there, too, I hear.
 
JayE said:
I'll have to see. I've been much more tentative with my sports betting, too. I've got to pull the trigger here a bit.

I was in Van a week ago and was around the track. I kind of want to check out Hastings in the spring. I was only ever out when I was young when my dad raced there (a bit more but not too much else). The purses are getting smaller and smaller there, too, I hear.
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My wife and I have talked about hitting up Hastings every year for at least a decade now, but we've never gone. More my doing than anything since I try to avoid cities as much as I can. Maybe if the track was on the outskirts of Vancouver I'd go with some frequency. But from what I understand the track is right there in the heart of the city close to the waterfront.
 
Sharkey said:
My wife and I have talked about hitting up Hastings every year for at least a decade now, but we've never gone. More my doing than anything since I try to avoid cities as much as I can. Maybe if the track was on the outskirts of Vancouver I'd go with some frequency. But from what I understand the track is right there in the heart of the city close to the waterfront.
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Very close. Right in the middle of a lot of things, really, as well as one of the rougher parts of Vancouver (getting better, but still a lot of junkies). It's right close to the Iron Workers Bridge. Very old track. Shit, the last best place to see the races live in western Canada after Northlands closes (Saskatoon's track is decent, never seen Regina's or Winnipeg's). The new track outside of Calgary is trash.
 
JayE said:
Very close. Right in the middle of a lot of things, really, as well as one of the rougher parts of Vancouver (getting better, but still a lot of junkies). It's right close to the Iron Workers Bridge. Very old track. Shit, the last best place to see the races live in western Canada after Northlands closes (Saskatoon's track is decent, never seen Regina's or Winnipeg's). The new track outside of Calgary is trash.
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I used to go to the one in Winnipeg on occasion back in the early 90's. It was just on the outskirts of the city. It was okay just because it was a place you could play live racing. But the place lacked any sort of character really. One big grandstand on the front stretch and pretty much barren around the rest of the track. No trees or anything. That was 25 years ago, though, so it may look more appealing nowadays.
 
Sharkey said:
I used to go to the one in Winnipeg on occasion back in the early 90's. It was just on the outskirts of the city. It was okay just because it was a place you could play live racing. But the place lacked any sort of character really. One big grandstand on the front stretch and pretty much barren around the rest of the track. No trees or anything. That was 25 years ago, though, so it may look more appealing nowadays.
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Honestly, I liked Saskatoon's track a lot. A bit of a rougher clientele at times, but nothing crazy. It's mostly sentimental, though.
 
JayE said:
Honestly, I liked Saskatoon's track a lot. A bit of a rougher clientele at times, but nothing crazy. It's mostly sentimental, though.
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So what this conversation about tracks in Canada is really saying, Jay, is that we should put some money down on one of the two Canadian-breds entered in the Pegasus to round out the tri, yes?
 
Sharkey said:
So what this conversation about tracks in Canada is really saying, Jay, is that we should put some money down on one of the two Canadian-breds entered in the Pegasus to round out the tri, yes?
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We should always be all about the Canadians, but I'm going to have to handicap it with a bit of help before I do that.
 
JayE said:
We should always be all about the Canadians, but I'm going to have to handicap it with a bit of help before I do that.
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I was leaning towards playing one of those two anyways even if they weren't bred in Canada. I was looking over the PP's last night and both Shaman Ghost & Breaking Lucky have that E2 "lung opener" angle that I like so much and have mentioned a few times on here. It suits Shaman Ghost better since he's more of an off the pace type and he also has a history of responding extremely well the last time that angle was visible in his PP's (next race out he won a G2 race by more than 4 lengths after that "lung opener" the race before). But that angle can suit Breaking Lucky as well, and he's probably more suited to this track as he generally sits closer of the two and will have better odds I'm sure.
 
Pegasus plays for tomorrow;

Arrogate over both Shaman Ghost, Breaking Lucky in a couple of exactas for 1u each.

Arrogate over California Chrome over Shaman Ghost, Breaking Lucky in a couple of trifectas for 1u each.

Arrogate over California Chrome over Shaman Ghost, Breaking Lucky over Shaman Ghost, Breaking Lucky in a couple of supers for 0.5u each.


I'm also gonna take a flyer on the #12 horse Hunter O'Riley to show (2u) in the McKnight on the grass since that race is going to be a part of the broadcast on NBC as well. He's 15/1 on the morning line, but I would expect he drifts even higher come post time. May be a pretty decent payout if he does finish top 3.
 
DRF doesn't seem to like the chances of Chrome's at all later today since they're offering up both guaranteed 10/1 odds on him to win if you sign up, as well as a refund should your win bet finish 2nd to him in the race. Limited wagers of course.

http://www.drf.com/specialpromos

Very interesting.
 
I should probably single Arrogate as a win bet too since I'll be playing to win in all my exotics. His odds are going to suck (even-ish), but it's smart to have a little bit of protection with him. I think I'll do that for 3u when I head out the door to put those in.
 
Sharkey said:
I should probably single Arrogate as a win bet too since I'll be playing to win in all my exotics. His odds are going to suck (even-ish), but it's smart to have a little bit of protection with him. I think I'll do that for 3u when I head out the door to put those in.
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do you not think the trip suits chrome and he maybe ridden differently this time?
 
Sharkey said:
Pegasus plays for tomorrow;

Arrogate over both Shaman Ghost, Breaking Lucky in a couple of exactas for 1u each.

Arrogate over California Chrome over Shaman Ghost, Breaking Lucky in a couple of trifectas for 1u each.

Arrogate over California Chrome over Shaman Ghost, Breaking Lucky over Shaman Ghost, Breaking Lucky in a couple of supers for 0.5u each.


I'm also gonna take a flyer on the #12 horse Hunter O'Riley to show (2u) in the McKnight on the grass since that race is going to be a part of the broadcast on NBC as well. He's 15/1 on the morning line, but I would expect he drifts even higher come post time. May be a pretty decent payout if he does finish top 3.
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Tailing everything for half the number of units. Thanks as always Shark and best of luck!
 
gcoogan1 said:
do you not think the trip suits chrome and he maybe ridden differently this time?
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I'm not sure what you mean, my man. Chrome had the ideal trip last time out in the Classic with an easy uncontested lead for most of the race over fairly soft fractions for that Santa Anita track, and Arrogate still ran him down in the end. The #12 post could also be an issue (or may not be) for him if he's not hurried out of the gate since it's such a short run to the 1st turn. Race riding from other jockeys looking to force him wide on that 1st turn may also come into play since everybody in the world is seeing this as a two horse race with him being one of them. There's a huge difference between 2nd & 3rd or 3rd & 4th when it comes to payouts for these guys when there's $12 million in total up for grabs. If you could eliminate one of the two main contenders in the early running then thsat could make a huge difference. Arrogate may encounter some of that too being on the rail, but he has a few more options tactically than does Chrome on the outside.
 
Man my racing backing has been absolute hit and miss.

I'll have a day where I use 3-4 units then I'll have a day like yesterday when I hit 62.5% of a $150 exact off $2.50
 
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