Year Long NBA Betting Thread

iGnP said:
@mkess101 sorry i totally forgot to address the rest of your post

I humbly disagree. What are they missing? They're 7-8 players deep (playoff roster). They have size, scoring, ball handlers, bench scorers, vets who have extensive playoff experience, and 2 superstars. I have a bet on Miami to win the NBA championship at +1700 and I'm more worried about the Nets than anyone else in the East, and its not even close
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Size? Everyone they have with size are old and not all that athletic anymore. (Outside of Durant of course but he doesn't get to play rim protector much because they generally have him guard more of a wing player). Aldrich can knock down open shots, but he's a defensive liability because he doesn't move well anymore. He was going to retire this past offseason. Griffin is still serviceable but far from a dominant rebounder or rim protector. (Not sure why he didn't play tonight--just resting?). Who else? Millsap is old and plays like 8 minutes a night. They're an undersized team. Who's their best player after the top 2? I legit can't answer that with Kyrie not in the picture. Can you?

Now look at the Bucks when they are healthy. Giannis, Middleton, Holiday (1 MVP level player, 2 all star level players--AND Giannis and Holiday are both top 10 defensive players in the league). Portis I guess is the Bucks 4th best player and he's better than the Nets 3rd best player and it's probably not even close. Connaughton now has championship experience and is playing with huge confidence, great at stretching the floor. Allen was a great pickup although he's very similar to what Connaughton does. Hill isn't anything special anymore but still an experienced guy who can play. Nwora is a legit scorer for the limited minutes he's on the floor.

Edit: And this is all without Lopez being mentioned. I assume they'll have him back at some point and as the Bucks 5th best player even HE is probably better at this point than the Nets 3rd best player. Hell, Grayson Allen might be the Nets 3rd option if he was on that roster and when the Bucks are fully healthy he's maybe their 5th-6th option.
 
mkess101 said:
Size? Everyone they have with size are old and not all that athletic anymore. (Outside of Durant of course but he doesn't get to play rim protector much because they generally have him guard more of a wing player). Aldrich can knock down open shots, but he's a defensive liability because he doesn't move well anymore. He was going to retire this past offseason. Griffin is still serviceable but far from a dominant rebounder or rim protector. (Not sure why he didn't play tonight--just resting?). Who else? Millsap is old and plays like 8 minutes a night. They're an undersized team. Who's their best player after the top 2? I legit can't answer that with Kyrie not in the picture. Can you?

Now look at the Bucks when they are healthy. Giannis, Middleton, Holiday (1 MVP level player, 2 all star level players--AND Giannis and Holiday are both top 10 defensive players in the league). Portis I guess is the Bucks 4th best player and he's better than the Nets 3rd best player and it's probably not even close. Connaughton now has championship experience and is playing with huge confidence, great at stretching the floor. Allen was a great pickup although he's very similar to what Connaughton does. Hill isn't anything special anymore but still an experienced guy who can play. Nwora is a legit scorer for the limited minutes he's on the floor.
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Aldridge has actually been playing very well for what they need. He considered retirement because of Wolf-Parkinson-White syndrome, not because he's over the hill. He's scoring at a career high 57% shooting this year, which is fantastic for a third option, and he gives them that desperately needed rebounding presence that screwed them over at times last year.

You realize the Nets took the Bucks to 7 games basically without Harden, right? Kyrie also missed the final three games. Throw in a healthy Harden, LA, and role players like Mills and Bembry, I think they're the frontrunners in the East. Vegas agrees, having the Nets as the current favorites to win the championship
 
Black Paladin said:
NBA--Nov. 27, 2021 (New York Knickerbockers vs. Atlanta Hawks)
Atlanta Hawks Player Prop Points Forecast:

Trae Young.................24.0 33
-----------------------------------
John Collins................12.0 12
Danilo Gallinari...........12.0 5
Bogdan Bogdanovic....12.0 2
Lou Williams................12.0 5
Click to expand...
 
iGnP said:
Aldridge has actually been playing very well for what they need. He considered retirement because of Wolf-Parkinson-White syndrome, not because he's over the hill. He's scoring at a career high 57% shooting this year, which is fantastic for a third option, and he gives them that desperately needed rebounding presence that screwed them over at times last year.

You realize the Nets took the Bucks to 7 games basically without Harden, right? Kyrie also missed the final three games. Throw in a healthy Harden, LA, and role players like Mills and Bembry, I think they're the frontrunners in the East. Vegas agrees, having the Nets as the current favorites to win the championship
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Vegas still has Lakers as the favorite to come out of the West lmao. Nets are paper tigers.
 
iGnP said:
Aldridge has actually been playing very well for what they need. He considered retirement because of Wolf-Parkinson-White syndrome, not because he's over the hill. He's scoring at a career high 57% shooting this year, which is fantastic for a third option, and he gives them that desperately needed rebounding presence that screwed them over at times last year.

You realize the Nets took the Bucks to 7 games basically without Harden, right? Kyrie also missed the final three games. Throw in a healthy Harden, LA, and role players like Mills and Bembry, I think they're the frontrunners in the East. Vegas agrees, having the Nets as the current favorites to win the championship
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Aldridge can still play offensively (he's a very good mid range shooter, always has been) but he was never a great rim protector. He used to be a very good rebounder, now he's average at best for a guy who's playing center. He's averaging 5.9 rebounds per game this season. For reference, Pat Connaughton (who plays mostly 2 guard, some 3 depending on who's on the floor) is averaging 5.1 rebounds per game.

Mills and Bembry are okay, exactly what you said, role players. Harden can't figure out (yet anyway) how to play under the new officiating guidelines.



Looking back at last year's series, some things to consider:

Durant was superhuman. He's about as talented an offensive player as we've seen, but even for him he was just insane in some of those games. He's certainly capable of that on any given night, but it's hard to count on him being THAT good in a series again.

Nobody ever remembers or mentions that the Bucks lost a very key player in their first round matchup last year in Divincenzo. He was crucial in spacing the floor offensively and consistently graded out as a WAY above average defender (both on ball and off the ball--he's not Jrue Holiday level but he's very good). Against a perimeter oriented team like Brooklyn, that was a big deal. He's getting close to being back according to reports, which gives the Bucks yet another piece that they didn't have through the majority of their playoff run last year.

Giannis shot 29-60 from the line in that series. He was doing that stupid thing where he dribbled a gazillion times and could not make free throws. Given the way he plays...shooting under 50% from the line is a problem. He ended up being tentative as hell going to the rim because he didn't want to get fouled. He **seems** to have fixed those issues. He's not dribbling for 10 seconds anymore, and he's shooting around 70% this season from the line. He got over the hump and won a title by making one free throw after another in the clincher. If he makes free throws even at around 70%, the Nets have nobody that can handle him physically. He will bully them. The guy won a title with a historic performance and still spent his offseason working like a madman with a coach on what will work best for him on free throws. With another coach on his jumpshot. He has the Michael Jordan/Kobe obsessive drive to be the best.

Remember my credibility on Giannis (homerism aside LOL, because obviously there is some) is fully intact. I told you years ago he was going to be great, maybe even get to this level. You were really dug in on KAT, Ben Simmons, and Embiid as being the best young players in the game. (To be fair I fully agreed on Embiid). Giannis has lapped them all.

The Vegas futures...IDK. Seems way off to me. I imagine the Bucks poor start (they've played without Lopez all year, Middleton has missed more than half their games, and Holiday missed a bunch of time as did Portis) has something to do with it? They've won 6 in a row now, most blowouts. Maybe Vegas thinks Kyrie will actually end up playing this year too? I'd bet the field over Brooklyn at current odds in a heartbeat. Not that the Nets CAN'T win the conference, of course they can. But their roster isn't very deep. Harden will have to figure out how to adjust his game a lot, and Durant will have to wear a cape again for them to have a good shot.
 
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NBA--Nov. 28, 2021 (Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers)
Milwaukee Bucks Top Five Players Prop Points Forecast:

Giannis Antetokounmpo.....25
Pat Connaughton...............18
Jrue Holiday........................12
Grayson Allen.....................10
Jordan Nwora.....................10

@mkess101 This is what one of the simulations said. Thoughts? You are the Wisconsin uber-fan, so I defer.
 
Black Paladin said:
NBA--Nov. 28, 2021 (Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers)
Milwaukee Bucks Top Five Players Prop Points Forecast:

Giannis Antetokounmpo.....25
Pat Connaughton...............18
Jrue Holiday........................12
Grayson Allen.....................10
Jordan Nwora.....................10

@mkess101 This is what one of the simulations said. Thoughts? You are the Wisconsin uber-fan, so I defer.
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That's what the projection has as the Bucks top 5 scorers??? Makes zero sense to me. Are they saying Middleton and Portis won't play today? 18 seems incredibly high for Connaughton, he's only gone over that twice in his last 10 games. 12 seems extremely low for Holiday too. But the big thing is...Middleton and Portis aren't even listed. I see nothing saying they won't play. They are both extremely likely to be in the Bucks top 5 scorers today assuming they play.
 
mkess101 said:
That's what the projection has as the Bucks top 5 scorers??? Makes zero sense to me. Are they saying Middleton and Portis won't play today? 18 seems incredibly high for Connaughton, he's only gone over that twice in his last 10 games. 12 seems extremely low for Holiday too. But the big thing is...Middleton and Portis aren't even listed. I see nothing saying they won't play. They are both extremely likely to be in the Bucks top 5 scorers today assuming they play.
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It's a new projection I am working out. The simulations aren't taking likely starters into account.
I need to use something like this: https://www.lineups.com/nba/lineups/milwaukee-bucks
and an inside man (mkess101, et al) to make sure I have the likely starters going.

Thanks.
 
Black Paladin said:
It's a new projection I am working out. The simulations aren't taking likely starters into account.
I need to use something like this: https://www.lineups.com/nba/lineups/milwaukee-bucks
and an inside man (mkess101, et al) to make sure I have the likely starters going.

Thanks.
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Ahh I got it (I think). The simulations are likely taking into account the amount of games started so far this year and projecting that forward into who will start and get minutes in today's game. Yeah you absolutely have to account for guys coming back from injury who are now playing but who missed games earlier. Middleton/Holiday are always gonna be likely to be 2/3 in some order for scoring (although Portis is scoring well with Lopez out) for the Bucks behind Giannis. Connaughton has some good games for sure, but his usage plummets when the Bucks are fully healthy on the wing. Especially now that Grayson Allen (who's very similar to Connaughton in terms of his role) is there. Last year PJ Tucker played a lot of minutes and he was a defensive stopper only for the most part. Portis has massive usage in the frontcourt for as long as Lopez sits. A lot of moving parts.

One example is the simulation having Jordan Nwora at 10 points. In his last 10 games, he's only scored double digits 3 times. He's only eclipsed 20 minutes 4 times. Early in the year he was putting up a lot more shots and scoring pretty well when the Bucks needed him. Middleton was out, Holiday missed games. Portis missed games. All 3 of those guys are back, and Nwora is playing a lot less. In blowouts he's far more likely to get a lot of minutes in the 4th quarter and when he's out there with backups he will shoot a LOT. But you have to project the Bucks winning by a really big margin in order for that to play out. He's absolutely capable of scoring double digits even in limited minutes, but I can tell you from experience in fantasy basketball that minutes played is a HUGE thing to take into account. Doesn't take a genius to figure out that a guy who's on the court for 32 minutes has way more chances to pile up stats than a guy who's on the court for 22 minutes.
 
mkess101 said:
Aldridge can still play offensively (he's a very good mid range shooter, always has been) but he was never a great rim protector. He used to be a very good rebounder, now he's average at best for a guy who's playing center. He's averaging 5.9 rebounds per game this season. For reference, Pat Connaughton (who plays mostly 2 guard, some 3 depending on who's on the floor) is averaging 5.1 rebounds per game.
Now you know this is a highly skewed average. Pat plays just about 29 minutes per game and averages 5.1 RPG, which shakes out to ~6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes of game time. LA is being limited in his return with his heart condition early on, he's averaging 22.1 min per game and grabs 5.9 RPG. Per 36, that's 9.7 rebounds per game. So no, he's not a poor rebounder.

Mills and Bembry are okay, exactly what you said, role players. Harden can't figure out (yet anyway) how to play under the new officiating guidelines.
I guess the point i was trying to make is now they have a good spot up shooter in addition to Joe Harris. Harris was HORRIBLE in that series against the Bucks, and while one wouldn't expect him to play that poorly again, having another shooter on the floor to garner attention and leave more one on one situations for Harden and Durant. Bembry, even though he's young and totally unproven, can turn into a high energy, cut to the basket and play defense kinda guy. I dont expect either of them to be great in standalone situations but that's not what's being asked of them, they're there to compliment KD and Harden.

Looking back at last year's series, some things to consider:

Durant was superhuman. He's about as talented an offensive player as we've seen, but even for him he was just insane in some of those games. He's certainly capable of that on any given night, but it's hard to count on him being THAT good in a series again.
Superhuman, yes. But I disagree that it would be a stretch that he repeats that sort of performance. Look at his series %s. They're very much in line with his career and season %s. It's not as though he was shooting at 65% for the series and he was just on an insane run.

Nobody ever remembers or mentions that the Bucks lost a very key player in their first round matchup last year in Divincenzo. He was crucial in spacing the floor offensively and consistently graded out as a WAY above average defender (both on ball and off the ball--he's not Jrue Holiday level but he's very good). Against a perimeter oriented team like Brooklyn, that was a big deal. He's getting close to being back according to reports, which gives the Bucks yet another piece that they didn't have through the majority of their playoff run last year.
True, but the Bucks lost a great defender in PJ Tucker. I guess we can just call that a minor plus when factoring in losing Tucker

Giannis shot 29-60 from the line in that series. He was doing that stupid thing where he dribbled a gazillion times and could not make free throws. Given the way he plays...shooting under 50% from the line is a problem. He ended up being tentative as hell going to the rim because he didn't want to get fouled. He **seems** to have fixed those issues. He's not dribbling for 10 seconds anymore, and he's shooting around 70% this season from the line. He got over the hump and won a title by making one free throw after another in the clincher. If he makes free throws even at around 70%, the Nets have nobody that can handle him physically. He will bully them. The guy won a title with a historic performance and still spent his offseason working like a madman with a coach on what will work best for him on free throws. With another coach on his jumpshot. He has the Michael Jordan/Kobe obsessive drive to be the best.
Free throw shooting isn't a routine thing. His % this year is actually lower than his career average, albeit in a small sample size. He's probably not going to be 29/60 bad, but I think we're splitting hairs. If he shot 70% in that series, he makes 13 more free throws in that series. I think that impact is lost in one full game of James Harden being hurt lol

Remember my credibility on Giannis (homerism aside LOL, because obviously there is some) is fully intact. I told you years ago he was going to be great, maybe even get to this level. You were really dug in on KAT, Ben Simmons, and Embiid as being the best young players in the game. (To be fair I fully agreed on Embiid). Giannis has lapped them all.
Definitely. Totally wrong on KAT and Simmons. I like Giannis a lot now that he's come into the spotlight. He seems like a good dude and I cant stand the majority of the personalities in the league. I think the only players I'll actually root for are Butler, Giannis, and Curry. Homerism aside, he's not perfect.

The Vegas futures...IDK. Seems way off to me. I imagine the Bucks poor start (they've played without Lopez all year, Middleton has missed more than half their games, and Holiday missed a bunch of time as did Portis) has something to do with it? They've won 6 in a row now, most blowouts. Maybe Vegas thinks Kyrie will actually end up playing this year too? I'd bet the field over Brooklyn at current odds in a heartbeat. Not that the Nets CAN'T win the conference, of course they can. But their roster isn't very deep. Harden will have to figure out how to adjust his game a lot, and Durant will have to wear a cape again for them to have a good shot.
Regular season doesn't mean anything. As dude said, even the Lakers are top in the west per Vegas odds. The NBA is very superstar and talent driven. The effort that these guys put in on a random Saturday night isn't the same as it will be when its playoff time. But that goes to the Bucks too, who cares that they started off poorly, they're not gonna lose to the Bulls or Wizards in the playoffs LOL
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There's a lot in your post so I'm just going to edit ^^^ in red as my response so I dont miss anything
 
iGnP said:
There's a lot in your post so I'm just going to edit ^^^ in red as my response so I dont miss anything
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First reply: Maybe not "poor"...but not great at all. Remember, he's their 5, while Connaughton plays mostly 2 and some 3.
Second reply: Fair, and I honestly forgot all about Joe Harris. He's a really good role player.
Third reply: He was a step up even for him. I'm not saying he **can't** replicate that, he's obviously that good. But he was making a lot of insanely contested shots. Even more than he normally does.
Fourth reply: Divincenzo (a fully healthy one) is a MUCH better all around player than Tucker at this point. Dante can guard 3 positions (so can Tucker I know) but Dante is also a MUCH better offensive player. Probably as good a rebounder too and can play the point if needed.
Fifth reply: The point was more that he was hesitant to even go to the rim at times. He didn't want to be on the line. Hell, the announcers (who generally try to avoid calling out superstars like that) were even saying it. If he shoots 70% (or hell even 65%) but is in constant attack mode like normal, the series just looks totally different. As far as Harden, like I said, he still needs to figure out how to play when he's not getting all of those ridiculous calls by flailing his arms on threes.
Sixth reply: Yeah, he's not perfect. Still takes a few head scratching shots. Every now and then gets in stupid foul trouble. But man he's so good, and like you said easy to root for.
Seventh reply: Yeah, NBA reg season motivation is hard to gauge, I agree. You also don't know what moves teams will make. If the Nets go out and get a big, athletic 5 they instantly become a WAY harder team to beat in a 7 game series. Not sure who will be available but I could see them making a deal if they can find one that's cap friendly.
 
mkess101 said:
First reply: Maybe not "poor"...but not great at all. Remember, he's their 5, while Connaughton plays mostly 2 and some 3.
Right, but I think the point we're making is if LA is a good rebounder or not. And while I see the urge to quantify that through total number of rebounds, I just want to argue that they're better, not the best. The way I'd quantify rebounding is how many offensive rebounds a team gives up. The Bucks had many more offensive rebounds than the Nets did in that series last year (74 to 47) and that probably doesn't happen again since a big body 7 footer in there, regardless if he's necessarily the one grabbing the rebounds or if he's clearing the area for stat whoring Harden to get it. Does that make sense? Not sure I explained it the way that I intended
Second reply: Fair, and I honestly forgot all about Joe Harris. He's a really good role player.
Third reply: He was a step up even for him. I'm not saying he **can't** replicate that, he's obviously that good. But he was making a lot of insanely contested shots. Even more than he normally does.
But again, with at least a healthy Harden back, he scales back what he NEEDS to do and becomes more efficient while the Nets become less predictable
Fourth reply: Divincenzo (a fully healthy one) is a MUCH better all around player than Tucker at this point. Dante can guard 3 positions (so can Tucker I know) but Dante is also a MUCH better offensive player. Probably as good a rebounder too and can play the point if needed.
Yes yes not saying he's not. But Donte coming back from such a long hiatus from an ACL injury will probably hinder him this year. When he's back at full strength id def say he's better than Tucker, even though Tucker is really underrated
Fifth reply: The point was more that he was hesitant to even go to the rim at times. He didn't want to be on the line. Hell, the announcers (who generally try to avoid calling out superstars like that) were even saying it. If he shoots 70% (or hell even 65%) but is in constant attack mode like normal, the series just looks totally different. As far as Harden, like I said, he still needs to figure out how to play when he's not getting all of those ridiculous calls by flailing his arms on threes.
Sixth reply: Yeah, he's not perfect. Still takes a few head scratching shots. Every now and then gets in stupid foul trouble. But man he's so good, and like you said easy to root for.
Seventh reply: Yeah, NBA reg season motivation is hard to gauge, I agree. You also don't know what moves teams will make. If the Nets go out and get a big, athletic 5 they instantly become a WAY harder team to beat in a 7 game series. Not sure who will be available but I could see them making a deal if they can find one that's cap friendly.
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I replied in red again but no need to respond again unless there's something that really irks you. We wont agree and that's ok, we can revisit it during the playoffs :) I personallly think the Heat are a sneakyyy team to win the East. Yeah, no star power, which goes completely against what I'm arguing for the Nets, but that team has some high character guys and IF they can get hot at the right time, they can win any series
 
iGnP said:
I replied in red again but no need to respond again unless there's something that really irks you. We wont agree and that's ok, we can revisit it during the playoffs :) I personallly think the Heat are a sneakyyy team to win the East. Yeah, no star power, which goes completely against what I'm arguing for the Nets, but that team has some high character guys and IF they can get hot at the right time, they can win any series
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Nah not irked at all, I just like debating this stuff. Yeah Miami could be a darkhorse. I think Butler is kind of a star, he has come up huge in big spots enough to give him that I think.
 
Black Paladin said:
Bink.

hahah!

Haven't seen/heard that one since I was big into online poker about thirteen years ago. Good one. <Moves>
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I used to play poker a long time ago, and quit when many others quit (Black Friday).

I still use several poker terms in my every day lingo. :)
 
Toronto Raptors once again cash the 1Q game total (Over).

Today, the total was set at 51, and even though both teams missed a bunch of shots, they still went Over 51.

That makes 14 straight games the Raptors have went Over the total in the 1Q. Easy money.
 
PuertoRican said:
Toronto Raptors once again cash the 1Q game total (Over).

Today, the total was set at 51, and even though both teams missed a bunch of shots, they still went Over 51.

That makes 14 straight games the Raptors have went Over the total in the 1Q. Easy money.
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warriors winning 3rd q has also won almost every single time too this season so far, didn't know about the raptors one
 
You know something that I see what works alot for baseball and last yr for NBA is this

if a team wins all 3qtrs it doesent matter if its by 1 point or 20 points its very rare for a team to win all 4 qtrs so if you see a game like that bet the opposite team to win the 4th qtr

For baseball whatever team has more hits come the 5th inning i did 50 games like this for MLB so not a great sample size but those teams ended up winning 41 out of those 50 games
 
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