Year Long NBA Betting Thread

[mkess101]

game tips off in one hour. will post by 7:15 ET at the latest

Hmm, only 2 games tip at that time. Brooklyn -1.5 vs Phoenix, and Atlanta -7.5 vs the Knicks. NYK playing without both Kemba and Rose, so backcourt could be kinda dicey. Quickley, Burks, Barret will be the ones running the offense. Burks is underrated imo, solid 2 way player.

But...I have a feeling it's the other game you're looking at. Very interested to see which way you go (assuming it is Nets/Suns you're hammering). I'm looking at this game with Phoenix getting 1.5 (and they opened getting 3!) and wondering if there has EVER in the history of the league been a team on a FIFTEEN game win streak that is made a dog by the books. Maybe it's happened, but I kinda doubt it.

 

[PuertoRican]

Jarrett Allen O10.5 Rebounds -130

 

[iGnP]

Regular season NBA games are very tricky to handicap. The main reason being is variance. It's damn near impossible to gauge how much interest a certain team has on any given night. And imo, the nba market is really really efficient in that once you find a team that might be overrated/underrated, the books are quick to adjust and kill your edge. 2021-22 Chicago bulls, anyone?

I've had both great and terrible years in basketball and I really didn't change much in my recipe for capping. After looking back at results at the end of the last year, I found that my "situational plays" have been a constant, while my plays that are more numerical based have been hit or miss. I could have had a profitable last 5 years if I ONLY bet on my situational plays (hindsight is obv 20/20). So this season I'm cutting out much of the fluff, scaling down the total number of bets and increasing the risk per game.

With all that being said, my bet today is worth 6% of my NBA bankroll, largest bet to date this season. That doesn't mean I guarantee this bet is going to win. I just find that situationally, it damn near perfectly fits my criteria. I'm totally ok dropping another 2u live if an opportunity presents itself, which I think it will. I wont elaborate on what criteria I use, as this is kinda like my own secret sauce that I've worked hard on.

Brooklyn Nets -125 risk 6u

Tail at your own risk. Nets -2 is also a valid play but I found that hedging is a lot easier with a ML play if, let's say, KD or Harden pulls a muscle or something crazy happens.

 

[mkess101]

Regular season NBA games are very tricky to handicap. The main reason being is variance. It's damn near impossible to gauge how much interest a certain team has on any given night. And imo, the nba market is really really efficient in that once you find a team that might be overrated/underrated, the books are quick to adjust and kill your edge. 2021-22 Chicago bulls, anyone?

I've had both great and terrible years in basketball and I really didn't change much in my recipe for capping. After looking back at results at the end of the last year, I found that my "situational plays" have been a constant, while my plays that are more numerical based have been hit or miss. I could have had a profitable last 5 years if I ONLY bet on my situational plays (hindsight is obv 20/20). So this season I'm cutting out much of the fluff, scaling down the total number of bets and increasing the risk per game.

With all that being said, my bet today is worth 6% of my NBA bankroll, largest bet to date this season. That doesn't mean I guarantee this bet is going to win. I just find that situationally, it damn near perfectly fits my criteria. I'm totally ok dropping another 2u live if an opportunity presents itself, which I think it will. I wont elaborate on what criteria I use, as this is kinda like my own secret sauce that I've worked hard on.

Brooklyn Nets -125 risk 6u

Tail at your own risk. Nets -2 is also a valid play but I found that hedging is a lot easier with a ML play if, let's say, KD or Harden pulls a muscle or something crazy happens.

Interesting. Paying some juice against a team on a long winning streak. But I kinda can see the rationale. Will be interesting to see how this game goes.

 

[iGnP]

Interesting. Paying some juice against a team on a long winning streak. But I kinda can see the rationale. Will be interesting to see how this game goes.

Just one facet of my rationale is that winning streak. Suns have failed to cover 5 out of the last 7 games even though they're on 15 game winning streak. The winning streak is already baked into the line

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Interesting. Paying some juice against a team on a long winning streak. But I kinda can see the rationale. Will be interesting to see how this game goes.

ayton is too beastly, he's going to dunk all over these guys facilitated by cp3's absurd passes topped off with booker's potent offense dropping 40 tonight.

 

[mkess101]

Jarrett Allen O10.5 Rebounds -130

Mobley back for Cleveland tonight FWIW. Not sure it affects Allen's rebounding stats a ton but it could a little.

 

[mkess101]

ayton is too beastly, he's going to dunk all over these guys facilitated by cp3's absurd passes topped off with booker's potent offense dropping 40 tonight.

IDK. I kinda lean Brooklyn tonight too. This is the kind of game they HAVE to win if they want to be considered actual contenders. Golden State went into Brooklyn last week and blew them out. They can't drop another home game to a Western power and think anyone will take them seriously. If Phoenix goes in and wins tonight, it's time to start asking if the KD/Harden combo can actually compete for a title...ever. The NBA is a star driven league, but maybe chemistry and depth got put too much on the back burner. The Bucks have one megastar and a couple all star caliber players (but not superstars) and a lot of good role players. Phoenix sorta similar (they don't have a player like Giannis but they have 3 all star caliber players in Booker, Paul (still, amazingly) and Ayton plus a lot of good role players in Bridges, Crowder, Payne etc. Could be the league will shift away from superstars trying to organize their own superteams if it stops working as far as titles are concerned.

 

[iGnP]

To anyone interested in my thoughts-

I fully anticipate a strong start to the second half by the Suns. If and when that happens, I will LB the Nets ML for an additional couple of units. I'll post if I do. The price has to be right, after all

 

[mkess101]

To anyone interested in my thoughts-

I fully anticipate a strong start to the second half by the Suns. If and when that happens, I will LB the Nets ML for an additional couple of units. I'll post if I do. The price has to be right, after all

The Nets really do have to play ultra efficient offensively to win. And most of the time they do. But man when they turn the ball over or have cold shooting stretches they have no chance because they are a piss poor rebounding team (which makes sense when you look at their roster construction, they really have very little in the way of bigs who are athletic). Made Javale McGee look like Shaq out there.

 

[iGnP]

Live Bet: Nets +338 ML for 2u

Tail at your own risk and make smart financial decisions

EDIT: Ignore the above, I got blocked. I got 1u at +338 and I threw a second unit on +8.5 spread. Sorry

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

ayton is too beastly, he's going to dunk all over these guys facilitated by cp3's absurd passes topped off with booker's potent offense dropping 40 tonight.

booker on pace for 40 as mentioned, ayton's beast dunks aren't even required yet nor cp3' absurd passes.

 

[mkess101]

booker on pace for 40 as mentioned, ayton's beast dunks aren't even required yet nor cp3' absurd passes.

Bridges is the guy who's just everywhere for them tonight. What an underrated player. Not flashy but no weaknesses in his game.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

harden always hides in his big beard whenever the goings get tough, there's also no kyrie for support. Three headed dragon but 1 head always cut off before game starts (cause no kyrie) it's a huge handicap. It's basically just durant alone to deal with the suns and it's not enough suns are quite consistent and potent.

 

[iGnP]

Sorry to those who tailed. I actually dont regret the bet- Nets shot the ball much better (Nets 49% versus Suns 44.5%). The difference in the game was clearly the turnovers. Watching the game actually made it all worse as about ~8-10 of the 20 total turnovers for the Nets were completely unforced, lazy mental mistakes. I also didn't anticipate Harden literally doing nothing, having 4 points on 1-10 shooting and 8 turnovers prior to garbage time.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

harden always hides in his big beard whenever the goings get tough, there's also no kyrie for support. Three headed dragon but 1 head always cut off before game starts (cause no kyrie) it's a huge handicap. It's basically just durant alone to deal with the suns and it's not enough suns are quite consistent and potent.

was a little off booker 30pts instead of 40. so free for suns they enjoyed having lead entire game and throttling nets. bookies should never ever disrespect suns like that again this season with the dog odds they put on them. harden hid in his beard as he do in tough big games, no kyrie and everything on durant's shoulders - nets win too unrealistic scenario unless career game by durant.

 

[mkess101]

Sorry to those who tailed. I actually dont regret the bet- Nets shot the ball much better (Nets 49% versus Suns 44.5%). The difference in the game was clearly the turnovers. Watching the game actually made it all worse as about ~8-10 of the 20 total turnovers for the Nets were completely unforced, lazy mental mistakes. I also didn't anticipate Harden literally doing nothing, having 4 points on 1-10 shooting and 8 turnovers prior to garbage time.

The Nets just aren't that good. I mean, they're good. They're a top 4 seed in the East, Durant and Harden (when he plays near what he's capable) will win plenty of games on their own. But their roster just isn't very talented outside those 2. So if one of them has a bad game (like Harden did tonight) they have zero chance of winning. Obviously all those turnovers hurt too, but they were pretty much down 20 the whole night save a couple of runs they made to get it to single digits.

 

[iGnP]

The Nets just aren't that good. I mean, they're good. They're a top 4 seed in the East, Durant and Harden (when he plays near what he's capable) will win plenty of games on their own. But their roster just isn't very talented outside those 2. So if one of them has a bad game (like Harden did tonight) they have zero chance of winning. Obviously all those turnovers hurt too, but they were pretty much down 20 the whole night save a couple of runs they made to get it to single digits.

I personally thought they were playing very well in the second quarter. Fewer mental mistakes. Good rotation on defense. I dont think it was a coincidence that Phoenix went cold that quarter. But doesn't matter, Nets stopped caring to start the third and that's where the game was lost. I also dont really understand why Harden continues to try and foul whore when the refs are clearly not giving it to him. Almost feels as though he forgot how to play like he did on the Thunder

 

[mkess101]

I personally thought they were playing very well in the second quarter. Fewer mental mistakes. Good rotation on defense. I dont think it was a coincidence that Phoenix went cold that quarter. But doesn't matter, Nets stopped caring to start the third and that's where the game was lost. I also dont really understand why Harden continues to try and foul whore when the refs are clearly not giving it to him. Almost feels as though he forgot how to play like he did on the Thunder

He absolutely did forget that, because for 3-4 years or whatever in Houston he was getting those calls nonstop. The guy shot like 15 free throws per night LOL and a lot of them were him just moving his arms up into a defender at the 3 point line. Now the league made it a point of emphasis not to call those, and he's lost. He'll either adjust, or he will go from an elite offensive player to just merely a really good one.

 

[iGnP]

@mkess101 sorry i totally forgot to address the rest of your post

I humbly disagree. What are they missing? They're 7-8 players deep (playoff roster). They have size, scoring, ball handlers, bench scorers, vets who have extensive playoff experience, and 2 superstars. I have a bet on Miami to win the NBA championship at +1700 and I'm more worried about the Nets than anyone else in the East, and its not even close