Social WR Lounge v 235: Arcane Rogue Trickster, but who likes Sickness?

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HockeyBjj said:
Disagree about his race being a net negative, but it’s not really shocking Biden destroyed Obama’s numbers when there were so so many people absolutely sick of Trump and wanted to vote him out even if they’re not frequent voters
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How would you expect to know whether his race was a net positive or negative without doing any research? That kind of arrogance is unfathomable to me. Anyway, here's Seth Stephens-Davidowitz:

https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...cialAnimusAndVotingSethStephensDavidowitz.pdf

Also, I think Trotsky is wrong (I thought I was the biggest Obama fan here). Obama won because it was a highly favorable year for Democrats. Presidential results in 2008: 52.9% to 45.7%, Senate results: 51.88% to 44.5%, House results: 53.2% to 42.6%. In 2012, Obama outperformed House Democrats and significantly underperformed Senate Democrats, but that's also complicated by incumbency. There are local effects, and some interaction (some people like to split their ticket, the president has coattails, etc.), not to mention that Senate races are skewed a little because not all seats are up, so it's not a perfect measure, but it's very hard to see a Republican winning the presidential election or even coming really close in that kind of environment. Generally, people greatly overstate the impact of individual candidates on elections, as well as various bullshit that happens during campaigns ("OMG, did you hear what Candidate said? That's gonna hurt!" "Candidate struggled on that question in the second debate. Game over!" Etc.).
 
Joe said:
If you arent waking up and going to sleep thinking about dr seuss being canceled then youre living in a bubble
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Such a dumb story. Seuss's heirs decline to publish embarrassing, racist shit from his past so a bunch of rightist morons start screeching about it (and, hilariously, buying up the good books of his that are still in print--thus enriching the only people behind the decision that they're so mad about). Democrats ignore it and pass an extremely significant bill, and Republicans don't even seem to care, having abandoned any pretense of caring about policy.
 
PolishHeadlock2 said:
If Embiid keeps it up he should win it easily. He's absolutely unstoppable on offense this year and he's been a top 5 defender in the league since entering
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I forgot that I only bet $11 on him lol. So I'll only win $55. But he's gone from +500 to +200 in less than a month.

I didn't realize until I watched a Sixers game a couple weeks ago (and then watched more of his highlights) just how few of his points are coming from the low post. He's posting up in the high post, winning one-on-ones and taking mid-range jumpers. His quickness and ease of ballhandling at that size is AD-level cheat code shit.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Such a dumb story. Seuss's heirs decline to publish embarrassing, racist shit from his past so a bunch of rightist morons start screeching about it (and, hilariously, buying up the good books of his that are still in print--thus enriching the only people behind the decision that they're so mad about). Democrats ignore it and pass an extremely significant bill, and Republicans don't even seem to care, having abandoned any pretense of caring about policy.
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Like
 
I carried a man for such a long period on my horse and then a fat @dezzy kidnapped me and he just drowned me
 
StoneColdSteveAustin said:
Like suckling pig? I love pork. Prob the best type of meat
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It’s like the “wagyu of pork” apparently. Heritage bred Berkshire pigs fed a special diet and all that. English pig given the Japanese treatment. Supposedly it’s the best pig around.
 
PolishHeadlock2 said:
If Embiid keeps it up he should win it easily. He's absolutely unstoppable on offense this year and he's been a top 5 defender in the league since entering
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I haven't been watching any basketball this season, and had to look it up.

Lebron James being in the discussion at 36 years old is absolutely bonkers. 26/8/8 in his 18th season is ridiculous. That man has some weapons grade juice.
 
I’m sad about dr Seuss being canceled, but to be fair, I had only read one of his books that was on the racist list. I loved the thinks you can think, it is or was not sure if they’ll be easy to find, always part of my baby shower gifts.
 
Jack V Savage said:
How would you expect to know whether his race was a net positive or negative without doing any research? That kind of arrogance is unfathomable to me. Anyway, here's Seth Stephens-Davidowitz:

https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...cialAnimusAndVotingSethStephensDavidowitz.pdf

Also, I think Trotsky is wrong (I thought I was the biggest Obama fan here). Obama won because it was a highly favorable year for Democrats. Presidential results in 2008: 52.9% to 45.7%, Senate results: 51.88% to 44.5%, House results: 53.2% to 42.6%. In 2012, Obama outperformed House Democrats and significantly underperformed Senate Democrats, but that's also complicated by incumbency. There are local effects, and some interaction (some people like to split their ticket, the president has coattails, etc.), not to mention that Senate races are skewed a little because not all seats are up, so it's not a perfect measure, but it's very hard to see a Republican winning the presidential election or even coming really close in that kind of environment. Generally, people greatly overstate the impact of individual candidates on elections, as well as various bullshit that happens during campaigns ("OMG, did you hear what Candidate said? That's gonna hurt!" "Candidate struggled on that question in the second debate. Game over!" Etc.).
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What am I wrong about? Obama being a generational talent?

Of course, the most important factor is that the GOP had just shit the bed in its two terms in office and a generic Democrat would be favored in that race.

But, after looking at exit polls for the 2000/2004/2008 elections, I actually think @HockeyBjj has a better quantitative basis for his opinion than I did for mine when I said it. Obama did perform better than Kerry and about the same as Gore with white voters. I had thought he ceded a few points in the white electorate.
 
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