Opinion Will psychoanalysis replace election forecasting models?

spacegnome said:
what we find in deep spiritual work is that we are always lying to ourselves and others, always driven by many things that were once hidden and that new vistas of the same are yet to be revealed to us.

and our unrecognized wounds and pain are always involved in every decision like it or not.
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^^^ See
 
bobgeese said:
Wasn’t left or right for me either.


Polls are flawed, but they are at least based in mathematics.

Psychoanalysis? No offense to the op, but IMO, too much wiggle room for partisan bullshit.
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no doubt whatsoever but that would kind of support the point really, that deeper and often hidden motives warp our thinking and cause us to make emotional decisions out of evidence.....
 
spacegnome said:
no doubt whatsoever but that would kind of support the point really, that deeper and often hidden motives warp our thinking and cause us to make emotional decisions out of evidence.....
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My vote is not based on emotion. Some people vote 100% based on emotion.


Ultimately, It’s just as bad as polling.
 
bobgeese said:
My vote is not based on emotion. Some people vote 100% based on emotion.


Ultimately, It’s just as bad as polling.
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and here is the part where intelligent and curious discussion ends with a self centered personal statement of immunity.
 
spacegnome said:
and here is the part where intelligent and curious discussion ends with a self centered personal statement of immunity.
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?


The point was not everyone bases their vote off emotion, untimely resulting in flawed results.
 
bobgeese said:
?


The point was not everyone bases their vote off emotion, untimely resulting in flawed results.
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in my experience the people who say they don't are the ones who don't know they do yet. but i am not therefore saying you would not have voted trump or tying that point to this particular issue.
 
spacegnome said:
in my experience the people who say they don't are the ones who don't know they do yet. but i am not therefore saying you would not have voted trump or tying that point to this particular issue.
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I just think there’s too many variables, one issue voters, and political oddities (like upstate ny Democrats being pro gun). Not to mention tax brackets. Surely lots of otherwise leftist people vote Republican for their wallets.
 
spacegnome said:
in my experience the people who say they don't are the ones who don't know they do yet. but i am not therefore saying you would not have voted trump or tying that point to this particular issue.
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To be fair there are plenty of upper middle class white collar type people that can't stand Trump but don't vote to increase their tax burden by tens of thousands. You can disagree with the ethics but I'd suggest that's a rational decision rather than an emotional one, unless you consider aversion to losing a bunch of money a solely an emotional response.
 
Tycho Brah said:
How much of that training is statistical? Because there are no numbers in your other threads.
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Yeah it's pretty funny dude writes a three paragraph little narrative of what he thinks is going on in Jones head and calls it a psychoanalysis.

Also who the fuck becomes a clinical psychologist or councillor anytime recently and decides the most old fashioned least scientifically supported methodology is the way to go? I feel like only someone who is bullshiting and doesnt realise it refers to a specific methodology that was cutting edge in the 1800s.
 
ocean size said:
To be fair there are plenty of upper middle class white collar type people that can't stand Trump but don't vote to increase their tax burden by tens of thousands. You can disagree with the ethics but I'd suggest that's a rational decision rather than an emotional one, unless you consider aversion to losing a bunch of money a solely an emotional response.
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maybe it is and maybe it isn't rational. i cant say for any particular hypothetical. however if we just go on the facts you have i would say the hidden motive is selfishness. these people (me) already have all they will ever need and we need to start voting to help the least among us. i said i was coming more from the spiritual angle rather than the psychological angel as i think this angle tracks more deeply with the human being. selfishness is the label i would give the people in your hypothetical situation.
 
ocean size said:
To be fair there are plenty of upper middle class white collar type people that can't stand Trump but don't vote to increase their tax burden by tens of thousands. You can disagree with the ethics but I'd suggest that's a rational decision rather than an emotional one, unless you consider aversion to losing a bunch of money a solely an emotional response.
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^^^ this


People will often vote for their wallets.
 
ocean size said:
Yeah it's pretty funny dude writes a three paragraph little narrative of what he thinks is going on in Jones head and calls it a psychoanalysis.

Also who the fuck becomes a clinical psychologist or councillor anytime recently and decides the most old fashioned least scientifically supported methodology is the way to go? I feel like only someone who is bullshiting and doesnt realise it refers to a specific methodology that was cutting edge in the 1800s.
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Religious bozos and some Europeans.

<DisgustingHHH>
 
spacegnome said:
maybe it is and maybe it isn't rational. i cant say for any particular hypothetical. however if we just go on the facts you have i would say the hidden motive is selfishness. these people (me) already have all they will ever need and we need to start voting to help the least among us. i said i was coming more from the spiritual angle rather than the psychological angel as i think this angle tracks more deeply with the human being. selfishness is the label i would give the people in your hypothetical situation.
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That's all well and good, I'm not debating the ethics of it. The point is you can't say that voting for maximising self interested outcomes is purely emotional. Voting against self interest because you find cultural change scary, that's emotional.

I don't make $200k a year. But I can certainly come up with cogent reasons why someone that did wouldn't want to vote for a party that doesn't explicitly plan on making billionaires pay a greater % than the working class - before they come after their own kid's college tuition fund.
 
It turns out that enthusiasm is a poor metric.

Trump can brag about his rally numbers but at the end of the day, a bunch (75+ million) of people who were lukewarm on Biden still voted for Biden.
 
ocean size said:
That's all well and good, I'm not debating the ethics of it. The point is you can't say that voting for maximising self interested outcomes is purely emotional. Voting against self interest because you find cultural change scary, that's emotional.

I don't make $200k a year. But I can certainly come up with cogent reasons why someone that did wouldn't want to vote for a party that doesn't explicitly plan on making billionaires pay a greater % than the working class - before they come after their own kid's college tuition fund.
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no one is saying that. you are just denying the premise by claiming that. its fine, you can think that but to deny that emotion plays a large role in a lot of peoples decisions is in my opinion proof that you haven't seen it in yourself and learned from that and are naive about something that effects all of us deeply.
 
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