Opinion Will psychoanalysis replace election forecasting models?

[DivineMind]

I just read an article about the problem with polling. Specifically, that the type of people who are likely to respond to these requests no longer represent the cross section of the population. I'm going to try and paraphrase here. 30 years ago, people who responded to polls were no different in how they voted than people who ignored them. Now, there's reason to believe that the people who willingly take the time to respond do not vote the same way as people who ignore them.

Something about trust and strangers and willingness to participate in these types of social data gathering ventures. This does lead to polls leaning left since more people on the right are going to distrust the polling process itself and thus refuse to participate. Even the right leaning participants will be different from the right leaning abstainers in how they view social participation and that also skews the results.

Yes, that's called non response bias and it's getting worse. Bias means your sample won't be representative of the population.

 

[DivineMind]

I have already demonstrated knowledge of psychoanalytic concepts. I'm not trying to pretend I'm a practitioner because that takes years of study.

I read your Jon Jones and Khabib analysis twice. Dr. Phil is more of a psychoanalyst than you.

Right, you are not a practitioner.

Dr Phil got his PhD from Phoenix Online or something similar, he's completely a hack.

 

[Damien Karras]

Right, you are not a practitioner.

Dr Phil got his PhD from Phoenix Online or something similar, he's completely a hack.

Where did you do your training if I may ask?

 

[Damien Karras]

Right, you are not a practitioner.

Dr Phil got his PhD from Phoenix Online or something similar, he's completely a hack.

Dr. Phil completed is PhD in clinical psychology at University of North Texas which is an accredited public university. He's no psychoanalyst though. His methods and approach are unconventional. But again, I read your assessment of Jon Jones and Khabib and there is nothing to it.

 

[DivineMind]

Where did you do your training if I may ask?

I trained directly under Jacques Lacans top disciple in France... Please, don't pursue this avenue further, you'll embarrass yourself

 

[Damien Karras]

I trained directly under Jacques Lacans top disciple in France... Please, don't pursue this avenue further, you'll embarrass yourself

I'm not impressed by your performance.

D'ailleurs, si t'as étudié en France, tu parlerais le français.

Ton application de la théorie est nulle. Tu ne décris aucunement les états de consciences des gens que t'analyses. C'est la base de la psychanalyse. J'ai aucun reproche à faire, et je n'ai pas de comptes à rendre aux charlatans comme vous. Allez.

 

[DivineMind]

I'm not impressed by your performance.

D'ailleurs, si t'as étudié en France, tu parlerais le français.

Ton application de la théorie est nulle. Tu ne décris aucunement les états de consciences des gens que t'analyses. C'est la base de la psychanalyse. J'ai aucun reproche à faire, et je n'ai pas de comptes à rendre aux charlatans comme vous. Allez.

Sigh...

On se fait toujours des idées exagérées de ce qu'on ne connaît pas.

 

[Sarge3000]

I just read an article about the problem with polling. Specifically, that the type of people who are likely to respond to these requests no longer represent the cross section of the population. I'm going to try and paraphrase here. 30 years ago, people who responded to polls were no different in how they voted than people who ignored them. Now, there's reason to believe that the people who willingly take the time to respond do not vote the same way as people who ignore them.

Something about trust and strangers and willingness to participate in these types of social data gathering ventures. This does lead to polls leaning left since more people on the right are going to distrust the polling process itself and thus refuse to participate. Even the right leaning participants will be different from the right leaning abstainers in how they view social participation and that also skews the results.

The other fundamental problem with polling and statistics is that organisations and media publishing them often have an intended use as a political weapon to justify a point.

As Churchill said, "I only trust statistics I doctored myself".

Everytime you go into the nitty gritty details of how the poll is conducted you find heavy bias.