- Joined
- Feb 19, 2022
- Messages
- 2,439
- Reaction score
- 1,513
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fiveth...ored-to-win-the-house-but-not-the-senate/amp/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
Republicans have chosen some poor and not highly favored people to run in key Senate races. However, they are favored in the House for sure
A divided Congress looks likely! the GOP had its shot in 2018 to win more big Senate elections and blew it as the 2018 Senate map was more favorable for them the fact they didnt win beat the Democrat Senator in Montana, Ohio, Michigan and West Virginia is a big loss for them as if they had won those 4 easily winnable seats they would have 54 seats today. At least 3 of those races in 2018 they could of or should of won but didnt. Also demographics in key Senate races favor democrats but in key House races urbanization of Dems moving to bigger dense areas favors the GOP as it leaves more districts depleted of Democrat voters.
""""
Republicans are substantial favorites to take over the U.S. House of Representatives following this November’s midterm elections, but the U.S. Senate is much more competitive, according to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm election forecast, which launched today. Democrats are also favored to hang on to the governorships in a trio of swing states in the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — although they are significant underdogs to win high-profile gubernatorial races in Georgia and Texas against Republican incumbents.
The split diagnosis reflects the difference between macro- and micro-level conditions. The national environment is quite poor for Democrats. Of course, this is typical for the president’s party, which has lost seats in the House in all but two of the past 21 midterm elections. But Democrats are also saddled with an unpopular President Biden and a series of challenges for the country, including inflation levels that haven’t been seen in decades, the lingering effects of the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and fraying trust in civic institutions"""
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
Republicans have chosen some poor and not highly favored people to run in key Senate races. However, they are favored in the House for sure
A divided Congress looks likely! the GOP had its shot in 2018 to win more big Senate elections and blew it as the 2018 Senate map was more favorable for them the fact they didnt win beat the Democrat Senator in Montana, Ohio, Michigan and West Virginia is a big loss for them as if they had won those 4 easily winnable seats they would have 54 seats today. At least 3 of those races in 2018 they could of or should of won but didnt. Also demographics in key Senate races favor democrats but in key House races urbanization of Dems moving to bigger dense areas favors the GOP as it leaves more districts depleted of Democrat voters.
""""
Republicans are substantial favorites to take over the U.S. House of Representatives following this November’s midterm elections, but the U.S. Senate is much more competitive, according to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm election forecast, which launched today. Democrats are also favored to hang on to the governorships in a trio of swing states in the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — although they are significant underdogs to win high-profile gubernatorial races in Georgia and Texas against Republican incumbents.
The split diagnosis reflects the difference between macro- and micro-level conditions. The national environment is quite poor for Democrats. Of course, this is typical for the president’s party, which has lost seats in the House in all but two of the past 21 midterm elections. But Democrats are also saddled with an unpopular President Biden and a series of challenges for the country, including inflation levels that haven’t been seen in decades, the lingering effects of the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and fraying trust in civic institutions"""
Last edited: