Elections Which polls were right, and which were WRONG?

[GearSolidMetal]

Seems like before every major election we talk about 'the polls,' and when they're proven wrong by the election results what do we do?

We forget about them and when the next election comes around we listen to the polls again.

So before Tuesday's election the MSM polls were hyping that it was a VERY close election and every credible polling agency had a wide margin for error (which indicates they're mostly guessing) but lets look at who was right and completely wrong.

For the electoral college AtlasIntel & Polymarket nailed it.
Polymarket is a gambling site which offers the ability to bet on elections, so some uneducated bets are made just based on passion. However many of the major whales from stockmarket traders who analyze data also make bets.



A French Trader bet $40 million Trump would win both the electoral college.



Interview with the Polymarket CEO -


AtlasIntel nailed the electoral college as well. 100% clean sweep.


Rasmussen got the closest nailing the exact popular vote percentage, second was ironically FoxNews, and well... look at that PBS/NPR/Marist poll.



For future elections I'm going to exclusively pay attention to Rasmussen, AtlasIntel, and Polymarket.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

By the way, don't listen to Nate Silver.

Now -


Then -

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Quantus Insights was also very accurate.

 

[Crim]

Remember all those retards citing that one pollster stating Trump was losing Iowa? They were so sure of themselves yet none would accept the challenge of making a wager on Harris winning Iowa. She lost it by 13 points.

 

[sanguinius]

Remember all those retards citing that one pollster stating Trump was losing Iowa? They were so sure of themselves yet none would accept the challenge of making a wager on Harris winning Iowa. She lost it by 13 points.

And texas is definitely going blue, any election now. Any election. Come on.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Remember all those retards citing that one pollster stating Trump was losing Iowa? They were so sure of themselves yet none would accept the challenge of making a wager on Harris winning Iowa. She lost it by 13 points.

Yup, and for some reason that had a big effect on the betting markets for the entire election, not just Iowa.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

What polls gave predictions? Polls just give probabilities based on information they gathered.

 

[Sakuraba'sEar]

I posted the atlas one, but I stated it had to be inaccurate

I was wrong lol

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Election predictors to not pay attention to -

Professors who got 2016, 2020, & 2024 wrong.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I posted the atlas one, but I stated it had to be inaccurate

I was wrong lol

Its all good.
One of the purposes of this thread is to make a list of sources that got this election correct so we can keep them in mind for 2026 & 2028.

"The polls were wrong" is an inaccurate statement.
Some polls were right. Very right.
Some polls were wrong. Very wrong.

And also lets not pay attention to the RealClearPolitics compilation polls because they average a number of polls that have repeatedly been wrong over multiple elections.

 

[syct23]

Its all good.
One of the purposes of this thread is to make a list of sources that got this election correct so we can keep them in mind for 2026 & 2028.

"The polls were wrong" is an inaccurate statement.
Some polls were right. Very right.
Some polls were wrong. Very wrong.

And also lets not pay attention to the RealClearPolitics compilation polls because they average a number of polls that have repeatedly been wrong over multiple elections.

No need to keep that information fam,

This is the last election, remember…

 

[GearSolidMetal]

No need to keep that information fam,

This is the last election, remember…

...until the next election.

In 2026 the Democrats will be speculating who will be their nominee for 2028.

That's enough for the media to brainwash Democrat voters into believing Gavin Newsom was a great governor of California, and his horrible debate with DeSantis will be long forgotten.

 

[syct23]

...until the next election.

In 2026 the Democrats will be speculating who will be their nominee for 2028.

That's enough for the media to brainwash Democrat voters into believing Gavin Newsom was a great governor of California, and his horrible debate with DeSantis will be long forgotten.

If the Dems can’t come to grips and shake off the Libs/Far Left, I tend to agree with you on that timeline.

I think it was a resounding Fuck Off to the last 20 years.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

If the Dems can’t come to grips and shake off the Libs/Far Left, I tend to agree with you on that timeline.

I think it was a resounding Fuck Off to the last 20 years.

Its impossible for them to 'shake off' the leftists.
They're imbedded into their party and media.

The best they can do is force them to shut up about certain issues... temporarily... until they win enough elections. That shouldn't be too hard since they're told what to say anyway.

Trump's ad about Kamala supporting transgender surgeries for prisoners and illegal immigrants was the most effective ad of this election in key battleground states.

 

[Scerpi]

And texas is definitely going blue, any election now. Any election. Come on.

Democrats have been banking for years that immigrants would ALWAYS vote Blue in Texas... and they've been waiting for the state to flip.

However, Garbage Democrat Policies flipped several Blue Border towns to Trump.



Seriously, Democrat can blame Biden/Harris directly for this one... They neglected these towns and forced them to deal with massive wave after wave of "asylum seekers".

It got so bad that Abbot had called in the Texas National Guard to assist. Remember that little tiff between The State of Texas and Mayorkas?





All those border towns remembered who showed up

 

[Vergilius]

The polls weren't that bad this time round if you actually paid attention to what they were saying in detail. They were predicting that results would be close in swing states - and they mostly were- but most also said that if all swing states trended the same way we could see a landslide win in the electoral college, which is what happened. RCP had Trump up in all swing states by small margins and that was borne out fairly accurately. His swing state wins were from 0.9-4 points, so I'd say most of them were correct to call this close.

 

[syct23]

Its impossible for them to 'shake off' the leftists.
They're imbedded into their party and media.

The best they can do is force them to shut up about certain issues... temporarily... until they win enough elections. That shouldn't be too hard since they're told what to say anyway.

Trump's ad about Kamala supporting transgender surgeries for prisoners and illegal immigrants was the most effective ad of this election in key battleground states.

Agreed it’s pretty embedded within the upcoming generation.

There will be another Dem president in the next 4-8 years, that’s just how politics goes. But the issue of the leftist will remain within the party until they are told it’s time to sit down and shut the hell up. They can stick around but their time has come to an end, time to hand over the mega phone and go live life quietly, stay out of everyone’s business..

 

[WhiteMousse]

Real Betting Odds also turned out to be precisely right- 312. Now obviously it fluctuated now and then but it usually looked like the map we're seeing today.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

The pollsters I follow had it pretty accurate. Rasmussen, trafalger, and big data polling. I follow the actual pollsters on Twitter who also give opinions of other polls as well