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These are the main tariff theories I've seen, but none of them fully make sense and even the reasons that Trump himself gave are incompatible with each other:
1) To combat Security Risks. It's what he said regarding Fentanyl. Might make sense for Mexico or possibly China, but makes no sense that he's also tariffing countries like Australia or Canada, and he hasn't even stated what specific demands he wants fulfilled to remove the tariffs.
2) To bring back manufacturing to the US. He also gave this as a reason, and if true it would mean what he said about #1 above is not true. But if this is his goal, it makes no sense to use blanket tariffs instead of targeting specific industries, and it doesn't explain why he keeps going back and forth pausing/unpausing the tariffs instead of just laying out his plan.
3) To negotiate better trade deals. This would maybe explain why he keeps going back and forth pausing/unpausing tariffs. It would mean that what he said in #1 #2 & #4 are false but would sort of explain why he stated them (misdirection). This is the one I'd want to be true, but it assumes the most guile out of Trump, and also doesn't make sense because NAFTA is up for review in 2026 anyway, so it would make more sense to just renegotiate during that window. By doing it this way, he seems to be damaging relationships with trading partners and causing mistrust, which is not conductive to free trade.
4) To raise revenue to fund tax cuts. He specifically said tariffs will make the US rich again. This would mean #1, & #3 are false because he's not using the tariffs to negotiate. Also #2 would be false because if manufacturing were truly brought back to the US, then the tariffs wouldn't be generating much revenue as there would be little importing. Tax cuts are the standard Republican MO, but this still doesn't explain why he keeps going back and forth pausing/unpausing etc.
5) To disrupt the US's standing with the rest of the world, strengthen ties with Russia, or cause a stock market crash so that the wealthy can buy up the stocks at discount. Basically Krasnov theory... I don't believe its his true goal, but some of it may end up being unintended consequences. It would explain the erratic back and forth on/off with the tariffs fwiw.
Notice that pretty much all of these theories (except for maybe #5) must be mutually exclusive for them to truly fulfill their stated purpose.
So which one do you think is the true motive behind the tariffs?
1) To combat Security Risks. It's what he said regarding Fentanyl. Might make sense for Mexico or possibly China, but makes no sense that he's also tariffing countries like Australia or Canada, and he hasn't even stated what specific demands he wants fulfilled to remove the tariffs.
2) To bring back manufacturing to the US. He also gave this as a reason, and if true it would mean what he said about #1 above is not true. But if this is his goal, it makes no sense to use blanket tariffs instead of targeting specific industries, and it doesn't explain why he keeps going back and forth pausing/unpausing the tariffs instead of just laying out his plan.
3) To negotiate better trade deals. This would maybe explain why he keeps going back and forth pausing/unpausing tariffs. It would mean that what he said in #1 #2 & #4 are false but would sort of explain why he stated them (misdirection). This is the one I'd want to be true, but it assumes the most guile out of Trump, and also doesn't make sense because NAFTA is up for review in 2026 anyway, so it would make more sense to just renegotiate during that window. By doing it this way, he seems to be damaging relationships with trading partners and causing mistrust, which is not conductive to free trade.
4) To raise revenue to fund tax cuts. He specifically said tariffs will make the US rich again. This would mean #1, & #3 are false because he's not using the tariffs to negotiate. Also #2 would be false because if manufacturing were truly brought back to the US, then the tariffs wouldn't be generating much revenue as there would be little importing. Tax cuts are the standard Republican MO, but this still doesn't explain why he keeps going back and forth pausing/unpausing etc.
5) To disrupt the US's standing with the rest of the world, strengthen ties with Russia, or cause a stock market crash so that the wealthy can buy up the stocks at discount. Basically Krasnov theory... I don't believe its his true goal, but some of it may end up being unintended consequences. It would explain the erratic back and forth on/off with the tariffs fwiw.
Notice that pretty much all of these theories (except for maybe #5) must be mutually exclusive for them to truly fulfill their stated purpose.
So which one do you think is the true motive behind the tariffs?