What exactly is a "puncher's chance"?

[tenniswhiz]

This expression, "puncher's chance", has become quite common here on Sherdog.
It is usually used to imply a longshot possibility, where a striker can only win a fight by landing a solid strike.

Let's say the term puncher's chance encompasses any kind of standing MMA strike; punches, elbows, kicks, and knees.

Is a puncher's chance always a longshot?
Are all puncher's chances created equal, whether longshot or not?

Tell me, what the first of the two listed fighter's puncher's chance is for each matchup.
Some matchups have never happened, some have happened, and some have happened/will happen again. Again, any striking is eligible, including all 8 points.

1. Sam Stout vs Benson Henderson

2. Dan Hardy vs GSP

3. Anderson Silva vs Forrest Griffin

4. Michael McD vs Renan Barao

5. Todd Duffee vs Fabricio Werdum

6. JDS vs Cain Velasquez

I haven't mentioned it yet, but obviously the "puncher's chance" in a matchup like Chuck Liddell vs Tito Ortiz, in their primes, has other variables.
Chuck is the better striker. Tito's means of getting Chuck down are limited, and his odds of keeping him down are very slim. So this gives Chuck all kinds of extra time to use his puncher's chance, which increases it drastically. At this point, even if 1/40 punches has a chance of finishing the job, it doesn't matter because Chuck will throw 40 punches or more over 5 rounds for sure.

Now humor me:
Out of Thiago Alves, Josh Koscheck, and Dan Hardy, who had the best puncher's chance against GSP?

 

[jiujitsuforever]

punchers chance is pretty much what you said. a longshot, upset sudden ko or tko. And out of cuetip head, hardy, and alves i would say prime alves all the way

 

[autolycus]

Puncher's chance should be reserved for fighters with power. IT wouldn't apply to Griffin vs A. Silva, for example. It is when one fighter is better everywhere but the opponent has the power to put anyone's lights out. That's just my take. when I think puncher's chance I think Lawler vs GSP.

As for your question, my vote is Kos. Alves doesn't' have the power in his hands.

 

[Jew Jif Shoes]

Humoring you: Koscheck. Most even with GSP in the wrestling + lots of power and athleticism, though not necessarily the best striking. He was still on the feet the most with GSP and could end the night with the right punch.

 

[djacobox372]

"punchers chance" only applies when the outmatched/underdog fighter is known to have the power to turn a fight with one strike.

This doesn't apply to over half of your examples. For example Leben has a "punchers chance" against anyone he fights, but Forrest does not.

 

[tenniswhiz]

"punchers chance" only applies when the outmatched/underdog fighter is known to have the power to turn a fight with one strike.

This doesn't apply to over half of your examples. For example Leben has a "punchers chance" against anyone he fights, but Forrest does not.

Yea, I meant the first listed fighter in each case.

Anderson was listed first. I was wondering what someone would rate his puncher's chance to be against Forrest.

 

[Nihilism]

Donkey punchers generally have a heightened chance of finishing.

 

[Xaa]

What djacobox said. it is for a longshot who is known to have one punch knockout power.

Serra had a puncher's chance against GSP.

This thread has a "puncher's chance" of being interesting.

 

[Junior Cigano**]

It means they are outclassed but have good enough striking and power to potentially land that one shot to win.

 

[countswagula]

Griffin didn't have a puncher's chance against Anderson, his chance was outpacing him like he did against Rampage and Shogun.

 

[Xaa]

Yea, I meant the first listed fighter in each case.

Anderson was listed first. I was wondering what someone would rate his puncher's chance to be against Forrest.

Silva had the advantage over Griffin in all areas. His chances were high in all areas. You wouldn't use punchers chance for that. It is used for when that is really the only conceivable way the guy could win, with a one punch lights out. Serra over GSP.

 

[Wariowokecancel]

All of you are wrong, puncher's chance means basically anything can happen in a fight. Like Serra vs GSP or Buster Douglas vs Tyson, especially if the favorite doesn't respect his opponent. The underdog has a 'puncher's chance'

It has nothing to do with a fighter's striking skill or hard-hitting power.

 

[tenniswhiz]

We often hear of JDS having a "puncher's chance" in his upcoming fight.

Seeing that he KO'd the guy he is fighting once already, and he has KO'd several other prominent HW fighters, and he also generally wins all his fights using punches, wouldn't his puncher's chance be somewhat decent? Decent as in somewhere between 25-50%?

 

[panamaican]

As said by others, it means he's got one chance of winning and that's a single punch that can end the fight if it lands.

 

[MCS]

Yea, I meant the first listed fighter in each case.

Anderson was listed first. I was wondering what someone would rate his puncher's chance to be against Forrest.

That doesn't fall into the category of "a puncher's chance". Anderson should win with strikes, therefore it's not "a chance", but likely to happen since his chances are way above the average, while a chance suggests the opposite.

 

[Wariowokecancel]

We often hear of JDS having a "puncher's chance" in his upcoming fight.

Seeing that he KO'd the guy he is fighting once already, and he has KO'd several other prominent HW fighters, and he also generally wins all his fights using punches, wouldn't his puncher's chance be somewhat decent? Decent as in somewhere between 25-50%?

Modern journos can't write for shit and like Sherdoggers make up definitions (see the first page for a ton of rubbish on this).

 

[Wariowokecancel]

Puncher's chance should be reserved for fighters with power. IT wouldn't apply to Griffin vs A. Silva, for example. It is when one fighter is better everywhere but the opponent has the power to put anyone's lights out. That's just my take. when I think puncher's chance I think Lawler vs GSP.

As for your question, my vote is Kos. Alves doesn't' have the power in his hands.

OH Jesus, completely wrong.

 

[Still Holdin]

Punchers Chance (anytime during fight) = Robbie Lawler & Johnny Hendricks

 

[Loisaida]

Puncher's chance for me simply means that one fighter is believed to be better than the other in pretty much every area, however the underdog has the POWER to end the fight though perhaps not the skill. A fighter without that power in my opinion can never be described as having a "puncher's" chance.
Also I would never use puncher's chance to describe someone who people think could actually win the fight.

Ex Puncher's Chance fighter losing: All the GSP fights you mentioned
Ex Puncher's Chance fighter winning: Bigfoot v Overeem

 

[Fahrenheit1221]

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Erik Silva

Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva

Matt Serra vs. GSP

Puncher's chance...

Anything is possible.