What exactly is a "puncher's chance"?

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by tenniswhiz, Oct 17, 2013.

  1. tenniswhiz

    tenniswhiz Steel Belt

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    This expression, "puncher's chance", has become quite common here on Sherdog.
    It is usually used to imply a longshot possibility, where a striker can only win a fight by landing a solid strike.

    Let's say the term puncher's chance encompasses any kind of standing MMA strike; punches, elbows, kicks, and knees.

    Is a puncher's chance always a longshot?
    Are all puncher's chances created equal, whether longshot or not?

    Tell me, what the first of the two listed fighter's puncher's chance is for each matchup.
    Some matchups have never happened, some have happened, and some have happened/will happen again. Again, any striking is eligible, including all 8 points.

    1. Sam Stout vs Benson Henderson

    2. Dan Hardy vs GSP

    3. Anderson Silva vs Forrest Griffin

    4. Michael McD vs Renan Barao

    5. Todd Duffee vs Fabricio Werdum

    6. JDS vs Cain Velasquez

    I haven't mentioned it yet, but obviously the "puncher's chance" in a matchup like Chuck Liddell vs Tito Ortiz, in their primes, has other variables.
    Chuck is the better striker. Tito's means of getting Chuck down are limited, and his odds of keeping him down are very slim. So this gives Chuck all kinds of extra time to use his puncher's chance, which increases it drastically. At this point, even if 1/40 punches has a chance of finishing the job, it doesn't matter because Chuck will throw 40 punches or more over 5 rounds for sure.

    Now humor me:
    Out of Thiago Alves, Josh Koscheck, and Dan Hardy, who had the best puncher's chance against GSP?
     
  2. jiujitsuforever

    jiujitsuforever Banned Banned

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    punchers chance is pretty much what you said. a longshot, upset sudden ko or tko. And out of cuetip head, hardy, and alves i would say prime alves all the way
     
  3. autolycus

    autolycus King of Thieves

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    Puncher's chance should be reserved for fighters with power. IT wouldn't apply to Griffin vs A. Silva, for example. It is when one fighter is better everywhere but the opponent has the power to put anyone's lights out. That's just my take. when I think puncher's chance I think Lawler vs GSP.

    As for your question, my vote is Kos. Alves doesn't' have the power in his hands.
     
  4. Jew Jif Shoes

    Jew Jif Shoes Brown Belt

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    Humoring you: Koscheck. Most even with GSP in the wrestling + lots of power and athleticism, though not necessarily the best striking. He was still on the feet the most with GSP and could end the night with the right punch.
     
  5. djacobox372

    djacobox372 Gold Belt

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    "punchers chance" only applies when the outmatched/underdog fighter is known to have the power to turn a fight with one strike.

    This doesn't apply to over half of your examples. For example Leben has a "punchers chance" against anyone he fights, but Forrest does not.
     
  6. tenniswhiz

    tenniswhiz Steel Belt

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    Yea, I meant the first listed fighter in each case.

    Anderson was listed first. I was wondering what someone would rate his puncher's chance to be against Forrest.
     
  7. Nihilism

    Nihilism Brown Belt

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    Donkey punchers generally have a heightened chance of finishing.
     
  8. Xaa

    Xaa Purple Belt

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    What djacobox said. it is for a longshot who is known to have one punch knockout power.

    Serra had a puncher's chance against GSP.

    This thread has a "puncher's chance" of being interesting.
     
  9. Junior Cigano**

    Junior Cigano** Brown Belt

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    It means they are outclassed but have good enough striking and power to potentially land that one shot to win.
     
  10. countswagula

    countswagula Gold Belt

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    Griffin didn't have a puncher's chance against Anderson, his chance was outpacing him like he did against Rampage and Shogun.
     
  11. Xaa

    Xaa Purple Belt

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    Silva had the advantage over Griffin in all areas. His chances were high in all areas. You wouldn't use punchers chance for that. It is used for when that is really the only conceivable way the guy could win, with a one punch lights out. Serra over GSP.
     
  12. warriorscommando

    warriorscommando I will always protect you

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    All of you are wrong, puncher's chance means basically anything can happen in a fight. Like Serra vs GSP or Buster Douglas vs Tyson, especially if the favorite doesn't respect his opponent. The underdog has a 'puncher's chance'

    It has nothing to do with a fighter's striking skill or hard-hitting power.
     
  13. tenniswhiz

    tenniswhiz Steel Belt

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    We often hear of JDS having a "puncher's chance" in his upcoming fight.

    Seeing that he KO'd the guy he is fighting once already, and he has KO'd several other prominent HW fighters, and he also generally wins all his fights using punches, wouldn't his puncher's chance be somewhat decent? Decent as in somewhere between 25-50%?
     
  14. panamaican

    panamaican Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    As said by others, it means he's got one chance of winning and that's a single punch that can end the fight if it lands.
     
  15. MCS

    MCS Gold Belt

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    That doesn't fall into the category of "a puncher's chance". Anderson should win with strikes, therefore it's not "a chance", but likely to happen since his chances are way above the average, while a chance suggests the opposite.
     
  16. warriorscommando

    warriorscommando I will always protect you

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    Modern journos can't write for shit and like Sherdoggers make up definitions (see the first page for a ton of rubbish on this).
     
  17. warriorscommando

    warriorscommando I will always protect you

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    OH Jesus, completely wrong.
     
  18. Still Holdin

    Still Holdin Purple Belt

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    Punchers Chance (anytime during fight) = Robbie Lawler & Johnny Hendricks
     
  19. Loisaida

    Loisaida Green Belt

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    Puncher's chance for me simply means that one fighter is believed to be better than the other in pretty much every area, however the underdog has the POWER to end the fight though perhaps not the skill. A fighter without that power in my opinion can never be described as having a "puncher's" chance.
    Also I would never use puncher's chance to describe someone who people think could actually win the fight.

    Ex Puncher's Chance fighter losing: All the GSP fights you mentioned
    Ex Puncher's Chance fighter winning: Bigfoot v Overeem
     
  20. Fahrenheit1221

    Fahrenheit1221 Gold Belt

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    Dong Hyun Kim vs. Erik Silva

    Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva

    Matt Serra vs. GSP

    Puncher's chance...

    Anything is possible.
     

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