What 375 million people will have to do when robots take their jobs

[Clippy]

All we have to do is stop making robots you guys

 

[oleDirtyBast4rd]

if i have some kind of doohicky in my condo that cleans every surface, what exactly happens to my cleaning woman? does she discover that, heretofore undiscovered within her, is a yearning and aptitude to write code instead of cleaning rooms?

Nah realistically she'd probably take a pay cut. Robots aren't going to be cleaning mini blinds and moving PS6's either so I'm pretty sure the lowly cleaning lady will be ok. At least for a good amount of time. Rumbas don't exactly clean a whole place remember

regarding the nanny state, if folks fall on down on their faces, the "nanny stating" is kinda what government is for, you know?

I couldn't disagree more here. The government is not there to take care of feeding and paying people for existing. If more people starved to death, maybe people wouldn't have 6 kids they can't feed. Why do we not look to these abusive parents instead of society when it comes to this issue?

i kinda lean this way also...but Viva's question is a fair one, if you extrapolate things to the nth degree.

I only started talking about nanny state because of my response to @AnGrYcRoW.

 

[oleDirtyBast4rd]

Well that's the point, given the premise of the OP. Capitalism eventually eats itself unless production from capital is redistributed to consumers. The more that capital eats into labor's share of income, the more it becomes a demand problem (and a resource problem, as land is a finite resource).

I think a straightforward way to look at redistribution in that environment is through shares of ownership.

My point was, that is an absolute doomsday scenario and you jumped like 10 steps in how we got there. It's not helpful to the discussion to jump into the .. "what if NOBODY had money!?!?" type talk.

 

[oleDirtyBast4rd]

All we have to do is stop making robots you guys

Weren't you created via robots? Why should I trust you? I don't trust people who still have their christmas lights up in february

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

Look at the invention of the automobile, it created a ton of jobs , the manufacture of them as well uses for them .

The coming revolution will see cars made by robots and driven by computers and many will be electric which require much less maintenance to boot

 

[sub_thug]

Well that's the point, given the premise of the OP. Capitalism eventually eats itself unless production from capital is redistributed to consumers. The more that capital eats into labor's share of income, the more it becomes a demand problem (and a resource problem, as land is a finite resource).

I think a straightforward way to look at redistribution in that environment is through shares of ownership.

This is a really important point. Production only matters up to the point where it can be fully consumed. Ultimately, I think this is the thing that's going to prevent the dystopian future. Of course, where this gets extremely complex is when you look at decentralized production, which is ultimately going to be what manifests (I think it's a stretch to imagine full communism where the state owns all means of production, although I am willing to discuss this point if you have a disagreement here). With decentralized production enters the classic Prisoner's Dilemma, where people might try to get "just a little more" than what they "should." I'm curious to see how this all plays out.

 

[Teppodama]

People will say that automations will create trade jobs. The truth is, in most trades, there are very few really great tradesmen. Most are ok but not great, there are way more shitty ones than great ones.

As an electrician I can promise you most suck at trouble shooting. It's pretty crazy to me sometimes. I've seen fellow journeyman that can't trouble shoot or even understand semi complex control wiring.

So if people think we can just take all this unskilled labor, and turn them into tradesmen they are going to be poorly mistaken.

We really need to be working on a plan to deal with the oncoming problem. I still suspect no one in politics will give a damn before it is to late. We will see the poor suffering before anyone thinks it is a problem worth fixing, as usual.

What will have to happen is a nations government will simply have to make it a law that certain professions, trades, etc can not be automated.

 

[oleDirtyBast4rd]

This is a really important point. Production only matters up to the point where it can be fully consumed. Ultimately, I think this is the thing that's going to prevent the dystopian future. Of course, where this gets extremely complex is when you look at decentralized production, which is ultimately going to be what manifests (I think it's a stretch to imagine full communism where the state owns all means of production, although I am willing to discuss this point if you have a disagreement here). With decentralized production enters the classic Prisoner's Dilemma, where people might try to get "just a little more" than what they "should." I'm curious to see how this all plays out.

Good post. Thanks for taking the time

 

[luckyshot]

The entire fields of IT, computer development, software development, cybersecurity, networking, data analytics, and the people who use computers for a living are a result of this machine being created..

Sure. Everyone uses computers today. What did we do before them?

Well, it took a lot longer to get anything done (more labor). Also, it took a LOT more people to keep track of information.

How many secretarial or clerical jobs have been reduced or replaced by computers?

Hell, how many jobs have been eliminated by simple computer applications such as automated phone menus?

 

[method115]

People will say that automations will create trade jobs. The truth is, in most trades, there are very few really great tradesmen. Most are ok but not great, there are way more shitty ones than great ones.

As an electrician I can promise you most suck at trouble shooting. It's pretty crazy to me sometimes. I've seen fellow journeyman that can't trouble shoot or even understand semi complex control wiring.

So if people think we can just take all this unskilled labor, and turn them into tradesmen they are going to be poorly mistaken.

We really need to be working on a plan to deal with the oncoming problem. I still suspect no one in politics will give a damn before it is to late. We will see the poor suffering before anyone thinks it is a problem worth fixing, as usual.

Yea this is why I'm glad I work in IT. I'm sure automation will hit here as well but it will be one of the last industries I suspect to get hit with automation.

 

[BOWHUNTER]

Blame Trump.

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

Nah realistically she'd probably take a pay cut. Robots aren't going to be cleaning mini blinds and moving PS6's either so I'm pretty sure the lowly cleaning lady will be ok. At least for a good amount of time. Rumbas don't exactly clean a whole place remember

I couldn't disagree more here. The government is not there to take care of feeding and paying people for existing. If more people starved to death, maybe people wouldn't have 6 kids they can't feed. Why do we not look to these abusive parents instead of society when it comes to this issue?



I only started talking about nanny state because of my response to @AnGrYcRoW.

People starving to death, great solution

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

What will have to happen is a nations government will simply have to make it a law that certain professions, trades, etc can not be automated.

That seems hard to enact , do you have an example of such a profession?

 

[sub_thug]

Sure. Everyone uses computers today. What did we do before them?

Well, it took a lot longer to get anything done (more labor). Also, it took a LOT more people to keep track of information.

How many secretarial or clerical jobs have been reduced or replaced by computers?

Hell, how many jobs have been eliminated by simple computer applications such as automated menus?

Well, probably not many were lost. There was so much information that people just didn't even try to amalgamate it. We know that because there was no field of big data analytics back then. There were lots of mistakes and inefficiencies, and we know that because they are documented throughout history. The French Revolution actually provides us with a really good anecdote in this: The French people were starving because bread didn't produce much profit for the bakers, yet cakes made them tons of money. So production in bread was really low, whereas production in cake was high. But the demand of bread was high, yet the demand of cake was relatively low. There was a ton of waste, and the cake was thrown out if it wasn't sold. So we can agree that waste is bad.

And I would argue that most of those clerical jobs were replaced with higher paid analyst jobs, and I make this claim on a variety of factors. The first is that there is not major unemployment as compared to other times throughout history prior to the computer. I would also note that it is a relatively recent development where women are so omnipresent in the workplace. That was simply not true 50 years ago, so it seems that the economy is able to accommodate more workers than it was 50 years ago prior to the computer. These analyst jobs are the jobs that most people do today, and they require more skill than a secretary/administrative assistant/aide. So this Industrial Revolution was certainly a net positive from an economic perspective.

 

[LockardTheGOAT]

That's what amuses me in a sad way about these scientists. They create these robots to do all these different types of jobs, not even realizing that it's gonna put the (vast) majority of people out of work, and thus out of any way to make a living.

 

[Teppodama]

That seems hard to enact , do you have an example of such a profession?

Healthcare for instance.

 

[IGIT]

hi again ole!

Nah realistically she'd probably take a pay cut.

yep!

as i said earlier, wealth will probably coalesce a bit.

Robots aren't going to be cleaning mini blinds and moving PS6's either so I'm pretty sure the lowly cleaning lady will be ok. At least for a good amount of time. Rumbas don't exactly clean a whole place remember

we really don't know what ceiling is for what automation and AI will accomplish. i'm not necessarily afraid of it, probably because i'm insulated from the threat that my job will will "vanish" from this phenomenon - and it makes my profession easier.

The government is not there to take care of feeding and paying people for existing.

i did not say that.

i said that the government (state and local) has to step in when people fall on their faces.

that means its better for the government to step in and bail out Detroit, as opposed to allowing for the entire auto supply chain to evaporate.

that means its better for the government have a SNAP program expand in the wake of the great recession of 2009...because people keeling over in the streets of malnutrition messes up property values and are an eyesore .

that means that, when faced with the option of letting states south of Mason Dixon line descend into third world status, we decide instead to boost Federal spending in those states, so they don't fall too far behind.

you know, stuff like that.

If more people starved to death, maybe people wouldn't have 6 kids they can't feed.

sounds good. i'm curious to see how that's worded in a campaign platform.

- IGIT

 

[Law Talkin’ Guy]

If you replace 1000 factory workers with robots you’re not going to need 1000 workers to do repair and maintenance of said robots, otherwise you’d never make the robots in the first place.

Automation plus an increasing population = troubled waters ahead.

 

[IGIT]

Automation plus an increasing population = troubled waters ahead.

hi and nice to meet you, TheWorm,

you could make the argument that an increasing population (India is projected to have 1.7 billion by 2050) without increased automation would most definitely put us troubled waters.

i get where Viva is going in his OP, but i think some of the anxiety really is a little overblown.

what will matter is not whether automation and AI replace certain sectors of the job market - its how the profits are distributed, and whether those idle workers are able to contribute and "earn their keep" in a very different society.

- IGIT

 

[Law Talkin’ Guy]

The whole world can look like Flint, Michigan in 30 years.