Economy We need a recession, and Trump's trying to trigger it.

wlu.29 said:
You haven't convinced me why a country needs a recession.
Click to expand...

It's a long explanation that I didn't feel like typing so I copied/pasted an AI response if you're genuinely curious:


"A country might need a recession to address imbalances in the economy, such as excessive debt, high inflation, or unsustainable growth, and to reset the economy after a period of unsustainable boom. Recessions, while painful, can also create opportunities for restructuring, innovation, and long-term economic improvement.
Here's a more detailed look:
Reasons for a Recession:
High Inflation:
When inflation gets out of control, central banks may raise interest rates to slow down the economy, potentially leading to a recession.
Excessive Debt:
High levels of debt in households, businesses, or the government can create a situation where it becomes difficult to sustain economic growth, potentially leading to a downturn.
Unsustainable Growth:
Rapid, unsustainable economic growth, often fueled by unsustainable spending or bubbles, can eventually lead to a crash and a recession.
Financial Market Instability:
Problems in the financial system, like banking crises or asset bubbles, can disrupt economic activity and trigger a recession.
External Shocks:
Events like a global recession, trade wars, or natural disasters can also negatively impact a country's economy and lead to a recession.
Policy-Induced Recessions:
Governments may deliberately choose to slow down the economy through fiscal or monetary policies to address imbalances, like controlling inflation.
Benefits of a Recession:
Debt Reduction:
Recessions can lead to a decline in borrowing and spending, which can help reduce debt levels in households and businesses.
Price Adjustments:
Recessions can allow for a reset of prices and wages, which can help to reduce inflation and create more sustainable economic conditions.
Innovation and Restructuring:
The economic hardship of a recession can force businesses to innovate and restructure, leading to more efficient and competitive industries in the long run.
Improved Resource Allocation:
Recessions can help to reallocate resources to more productive sectors of the economy.
Building a Foundation for Future Growth:
While recessions can be painful, they can also create a foundation for more sustainable and resilient economic growth in the future."
 
Fedorgasm said:
This is my theory on what's really happening. I'm not a yuge Trump supporter but I also don't believe he's a moron like other do.

1. The stock market is overvalued. The influx of retail traders has caused an everything bubble. Now every dumbass in the world thinks they need to buy the dip and never sell. This has caused too much market optimism. So we can either try to trigger a smaller market correction now, or wait until the problem is much worse and the bubble pops and causes the worst depression in history.

2. Inflation is stubborn. We printed too much money during COVID and raising interest rates has slowed inflation somewhat but we still need a recession to restore balance to the economy.

3. The trade deficit needs to shrink. Lots of people are arguing that a trade deficit is not a bad thing, but if it gets too big, that's a problem.

So what if Trump's advisors are trying to solve all 3 at once? We need a recession, but if they let it hit us naturally, it will be far worse, and it might come close to the next election and which would hurt the Republicans chances. So it's better for them to try and trigger the recession now, so we can recover before the next election, and they can take credit for the recovery.
Click to expand...

1) You don't need a recession for the stock market to go down.
2) You don't need a recession to reduce inflation. Perhaps if you want actual deflation, but that would carry it's own baggage.
3) A recession would impact spending on domestic products the same as imported ones. Maybe even MORE. Lowering your GDP to lower the trade deficit is about one of the worst ideas ever.

There are any number of strategies one might advocate. And some of those might even cause recessionary pressure. But right now all that's happening is chaos and uncertainty are being injected into the market. Deliberately. There is no scenario where deliberately injecting chaos and uncertainty in the market is a healthy strategy.

This 90 day reprieve is also a terrible idea. Why? Because it prolongs uncertainty. How many large scale investment decisions do you think fortune 500 companies will make over the next 90 days? But hey.....this is what we voted for.........so I'll strap in and enjoy the ride. I'm an old rich white guy, so this is not going to bother me in the slightest.....But most everyone else is pretty much fucked.
 
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cooks1 said:
1) You don't need a recession for the stock market to go down.
2) You don't need a recession to reduce inflation. Perhaps if you want actual deflation, but that would carry it's own baggage.
3) A recession would impact spending on domestic products the same as imported ones. Maybe even MORE. Lowering your GDP to lower the trade deficit is about one of the worst ideas ever.

There are any number of strategies one might advocate. And some of those might even cause recessionary pressure. But right now all that's happening is chaos and uncertainty are being injected into the market. Deliberately. There is no scenario where deliberately injecting chaos and uncertainty in the market is a healthy strategy.

This 90 day reprieve is also a terrible idea. Why? Because it prolongs uncertainty. How many large scale investment decisions do you think fortune 500 companies will make over the next 90 days? But hey.....this is what we voted for.........so I'll strap in and enjoy the ride. I'm an old rich white guy, so this is not going to bother me in the slightest.....But most everyone else is pretty much fucked.
Click to expand...
Trump told his circle he lost the election to Biden and then purposely told his supporters to attack the White House , his supporters are actually more dangerous then him becbecause without them he couldn’t get away with breaking laws himself . Low IQ hostile people make up more then 65% of his supporters that’s a fact .


The point is he has no plan he goes on emotional of a a very egotistical man, almost everyone that was a former administration member in his first term warned the public how dangerous he was and he still got elected and only because Musk spent 300 million on him and helped him out , his own former secretary of defense said he doesn’t believe in the constitution …….let that sink in ppl . Smh
 
Elect a felon conman get a criminal enterprise running your country.

Elon and him have both shown a propensity for stock market manipulation, they can just do it on the world wide scale now and they just did thank you very much.

What kind of moron puts out that "truth" in the morning then changes the world economy in the afternoon and thinks nobody will notice?

Oh the kind of moron that did a test run of it on Monday, then declared it fake news.

The kind of moron that thinks he is immune from all possible recriminations because of the supreme court immunity rulings

The kind of man who stole from his own charity, cheated on his wife with porn stars and now wants to prosecute people for TREASON because they wrote bad things about him? The guy who pardoned the Jan 6th people, silk road dude, etc.

The guy that sells trump meme coins and gold sneakers and customized bibles, and super hero NFT's of himself might be greedy and egotistical?

When the snake show you his fangs and rattles his tail don't act surprised when you go to pick him up and he bites you.
 
Fedorgasm said:
It's a long explanation that I didn't feel like typing so I copied/pasted an AI response if you're genuinely curious:


"A country might need a recession to address imbalances in the economy, such as excessive debt, high inflation, or unsustainable growth, and to reset the economy after a period of unsustainable boom. Recessions, while painful, can also create opportunities for restructuring, innovation, and long-term economic improvement.
Here's a more detailed look:
Reasons for a Recession:
High Inflation:
When inflation gets out of control, central banks may raise interest rates to slow down the economy, potentially leading to a recession.
Excessive Debt:
High levels of debt in households, businesses, or the government can create a situation where it becomes difficult to sustain economic growth, potentially leading to a downturn.
Unsustainable Growth:
Rapid, unsustainable economic growth, often fueled by unsustainable spending or bubbles, can eventually lead to a crash and a recession.
Financial Market Instability:
Problems in the financial system, like banking crises or asset bubbles, can disrupt economic activity and trigger a recession.
External Shocks:
Events like a global recession, trade wars, or natural disasters can also negatively impact a country's economy and lead to a recession.
Policy-Induced Recessions:
Governments may deliberately choose to slow down the economy through fiscal or monetary policies to address imbalances, like controlling inflation.
Benefits of a Recession:
Debt Reduction:
Recessions can lead to a decline in borrowing and spending, which can help reduce debt levels in households and businesses.
Price Adjustments:
Recessions can allow for a reset of prices and wages, which can help to reduce inflation and create more sustainable economic conditions.
Innovation and Restructuring:
The economic hardship of a recession can force businesses to innovate and restructure, leading to more efficient and competitive industries in the long run.
Improved Resource Allocation:
Recessions can help to reallocate resources to more productive sectors of the economy.
Building a Foundation for Future Growth:
While recessions can be painful, they can also create a foundation for more sustainable and resilient economic growth in the future."
Click to expand...
Not convinced
 
Deaths Head said:
Trump told his circle he lost the election to Biden and then purposely told his supporters to attack the White House , his supporters are actually more dangerous then him becbecause without them he couldn’t get away with breaking laws himself . Low IQ hostile people make up more then 65% of his supporters that’s a fact .
Click to expand...

This is what mental illness looks like. He's created a new reality while subconsciously projecting his own shortcomings onto it.

"LOW IQ HOSTILE PEOPLE" is literally Deaths Head MO. Just go back and read some of his posts. You will have to decipher a lot of his rhetoric but it's always the same.

Some wild boast, like he beat Shaquel O'Neil at 365lbs armwrestling when he was 165lbs, or he beats up Klitchko sparring partners, or his family is in the mob. Call him on it and he will immediately tell you about his 7 KOs (no proof or video) and bet you $1k he can beat you up. He is literally the LOW IQ hostile person he accuses others of being.


Deaths Head said:
The point is he has no plan he goes on emotional of a a very egotistical man, almost everyone that was a former administration member in his first term warned the public how dangerous he was and he still got elected and only because Musk spent 300 million on him and helped him out , his own former secretary of defense said he doesn’t believe in the constitution …….let that sink in ppl . Smh
Click to expand...

I'm betting deaths head has 3 boosters shots, an alimony and child support check, and lives with a family member. When a male has this much TDS they have a fairly standard stereotype. Definately low frontal lobe development.
 
Stoic1 said:
This is what mental illness looks like. He's created a new reality while subconsciously projecting his own shortcomings onto it.

"LOW IQ HOSTILE PEOPLE" is literally Deaths Head MO. Just go back and read some of his posts. You will have to decipher a lot of his rhetoric but it's always the same.

Some wild boast, like he beat Shaquel O'Neil at 365lbs armwrestling when he was 165lbs, or he beats up Klitchko sparring partners, or his family is in the mob. Call him on it and he will immediately tell you about his 7 KOs (no proof or video) and bet you $1k he can beat you up. He is literally the LOW IQ hostile person he accuses others of being.




I'm betting deaths head has 3 boosters shots, an alimony and child support check, and lives with a family member. When a male has this much TDS they have a fairly standard stereotype. Definately low frontal lobe development.
Click to expand...

Is this guy dating your mother? Damn.
 
We're in a recession of real value already. The stock market is overvalued, but that doesn't mean that we should tank everything
 
cooks1 said:
There is no scenario where deliberately injecting chaos and uncertainty in the market is a healthy strategy.
Click to expand...

That is an insanely false statement. Injecting uncertainty is essentially a basic requirement for progress. The world advancement has not been defined by a gradual change of the status quo but major disruptive actions shattering the status quo.
 
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fortheo said:
It's a mutually beneficial trade and done on terms mutually agreed upon by both parties. Both sides win. Our trade deficit is due to us being a large rich country that likes to consume a lot.
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I'm not disputing that, but certain relationships can be more beneficial for one party than the other while still being beneficial to both, especially on long timescales. America benefits enormously from Taiwanese microchips of course, but both Trump and Biden understood that it's not ideal to be the idle consumer of the relationship.
 
Cartiac said:
That is an insanely false statement. Injecting uncertainty is essentially a basic requirement for progress. The world advancement has not been defined by a gradual change of the status quo but major disruptive actions shattering the status quo.
Click to expand...
Dude......Major disruptive actions happen ALL ON THEIR OWN. Uncertainty happens all on it's own. It's literally part of the system. It's not necessary or helpful (and is quite damaging in fact) for governments to go into epileptic fits and change tariffs hundreds of percent virtually on a daily basis.
 
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I think a goal wanted to see with a recession is lower interest rates. That's one of the bigger problems with our economy, borrowing money is more pricy than Trump and others wish to see.

The problem I see is that interest rates are market driven. The Fed has a roll too, but the market has a roll in where interest rates are. And as happened with the tariff plan, bond interest rates spiked much higher quite quickly. So in the current market a recession is not going to necessarily cause cheaper borrowing costs. Some info on that ~

BUSINESS

Why Trump decided to take the win and paused tariff war​


nypost.com

Why Trump decided to take the win and paused tariff war

Donald Trump finally decided to take the proverbial “win” on trade and the stock market rallied nearly 3,000 points.
nypost.com nypost.com

....In other words, when bond prices fall and their interest rates spike, it could spell economic disaster.

That’s what the bond market was signaling Tuesday night, bringing real panic as the yield on the 10-year bond shot to 4.51% and the yield on the 30-year bond jumped above 5%.

Someone was unloading bonds en masse amid the trade turmoil.

A recent Treasury auction didn’t go so well, adding to the upheaval.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking to the press outside of the West Wing on April 9, 2025.4
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking to the press outside the West Wing on April 9, 2025.AFP via Getty Images
Market experts speculated that hedge funds were unwinding some complex trades.

Even worse, I was told by the CEO of a major financial institution that one of our biggest foreign holders of treasuries, the Japanese, were unloading US debt in huge quantities.

Many fingers pointed to China, our long-term adversary economically and militarily, but it was a friendly country, selling in huge quantities and sending interest rates into dangerous territory.

That type of instability clearly made an impression on Bessent, I am told.


What happened next is one for the history books.

It was Bessent, not Lutnick or Navarro, who held a press conference Wednesday saying our trade war with the world — except a hyper-belligerent China — was over, or at least on pause.

He attributed it to Trump’s negotiating style, playing the long game and getting people to the table to discuss lowering trade barriers.

It’s a win that Wall Street is pleased Trump took.
 
cooks1 said:
Dude......Major disruptive actions happen ALL ON THEIR OWN. Uncertainty happens all on it's own. It's literally part of the system. It's not necessary or helpful (and is quite damaging in fact) for governments to go into epileptic fits and change tariffs hundreds of percent virtually on a daily basis.
Click to expand...
Yes, there is an expected certainty of uncertainty built into the markets, but you are trying to deflect from the statement you made that I responded to directly referring to deliberate injection of uncertainty which is actually necessary and extremely helpful. No significant change will ever happen without deliberate actions that differ from the current norms which naturally create uncertainty.

It is hilarious to me as a someone considered to be conservative that I have to explain to people that claim to be liberal or even progressive to not be so scared of change.
 
Mr Holmes said:
I don't remember things getting worse than they were following 2008. And I lived in a somewhat dicy neighborhood during those years.
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Anecdotal fallacy. It's true that your immediate conditions have some resilience to recessions, in that any downturn doesn't immediately deprive you of concrete things. But the difference between a decade-long recession and not is immense. Moreover, part of the reason you didn't experience a worsening was that the governments of the world immediately reacted to counteract the recession, preventing damage.

You were protected, so it didn't get all that bad. That's good, but doesn't demonstrate the usefulness of recessions: the opposite, really.
 
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