War Room OT Discussion v4

[Jack V Savage]

Uh yeah, economists are dismal at predicting things.

They're pretty good at predicting some things and not so great at predicting other things. Auction results, for example, is something economists do a good job with. Discrete choice models do pretty well. The gravity model of trade does well.

You're also confusing finance and economics, though I don't think you're right on finance either. At any rate, seems odd to dismiss the whole field while at the same time embracing a particular part of it that has been a notorious failure.

 

[JonesBones]

They're pretty good at predicting some things and not so great at predicting other things. Auction results, for example, is something economists do a good job with. Discrete choice models do pretty well. The gravity model of trade does well.

You're also confusing finance and economics, though I don't think you're right on finance either. At any rate, seems odd to dismiss the whole field while at the same time embracing a particular part of it that has been a notorious failure.

Well as people have said, economics is astrology for men.

Can you imagine if physics was good at predicting some things in their fields but not others? Like the really big important things.

The financial and economic crisis that erupted in 2007—arguably the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s—was not foreseen by most of the forecasters, even if a few lone analysts had been predicting it for some time (for example, Nouriel Roubini and Robert Shiller).

 

[JonesBones]

Basically candlestick charts are like UFC scorecards. They show investor sentiment. It shows who the audience thinks is winning. It shows who is winning actually.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Well as people have said, economics is astrology for men.

People say lots of stupid things.

Can you imagine if physics was good at predicting some things in their fields but not others? Like the really big important things.

Every field, including physics, can predict some things and not others. And they all get continually better and predicting things. IMO, you're just blindly repeating something you've heard. Look into this more deeply.

The financial and economic crisis that erupted in 2007—arguably the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s—was not foreseen by most of the forecasters, even if a few lone analysts had been predicting it for some time (for example, Nouriel Roubini and Robert Shiller).

But this is basically equivalent of saying that geology or physics are the same as astrology (or technical analysis) because they don't predict earthquakes. People like Krugman and Roubini (who were very familiar with Japan's economy) did a good job identifying the problem immediately and predicting the aftermath, which no astrologist (or technical analyst) would ever be able to do.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Basically candlestick charts are like UFC scorecards. They show investor sentiment. It shows who the audience thinks is winning. It shows who is winning actually.

Well, good luck with it. I'm just telling you that the evidence doesn't support your confidence here, and the logic behind it is weak. You've said before that it's more about having fun, and that's fine.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Austrianism is another brand of economic quackery equivalent to technical analysis. It's funny because after the crash, Austrian permabears got a temporary boost to their credibility that they immediately blew by predicting hyperinflation around the corner (something real economists knew was not a threat).

 

[JonesBones]

Well, good luck with it. I'm just telling you that the evidence doesn't support your confidence here, and the logic behind it is weak. You've said before that it's more about having fun, and that's fine.

Ya, it isn't a real science. I am not saying it is. I don't put much confidence to it.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Ya, it isn't a real science. I am not saying it is. I don't put much confidence to it.

There is something to momentum, though. Here's Cliff Asness and others on it:

http://business.nasdaq.com/media/Fa...azzini_Moskowitz_and_Asness_tcm5044-42326.pdf

 

[JonesBones]

There is something to momentum, though. Here's Cliff Asness and others on it:

http://business.nasdaq.com/media/Fa...azzini_Moskowitz_and_Asness_tcm5044-42326.pdf

It is actually easier to predict the future than to understand the past. It is easier to go forward in time than back. lol

Taleb gives the example of an icecube. Take an ice cube out of the freezer and put it somewhere. If we know enough about the room and ice cube, we can predict the puddle it will melt into. We can do that. But we can't do the opposite. We can't find a puddle and figure out what shape ice cube it came from or it even came from an ice cube at all.

One of the most desirable powers in mythology is the ability to see the future. But there was this one who had the real gift, the real sight. The ability to see the past. Not to see how things go forward, but how they go backward.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

@JonesBones, ABBV is right now the biggest gainer on today's market. Would you sell or keep riding it for further growth?

 

[JonesBones]

@JonesBones, ABBV is right now the biggest gainer on today's market. Would you sell or keep riding it for further growth?

I will say to you what I say to everybody. Do not take my advice. lol.

But you have that mindset that we talked about. You are still panicking day by day. A lot of top investors don't even check their portfolio daily. They are holding what they got. Ride it out and see what happens. Or not. But like Alibaba for example. Bought at 170 and sold at like 190. It has went up 20 bucks since I sold it about a week and a half ago. And I am sure it will keep going up.



Actually it is up 14%. Wow. That is a toughie. No idea, man. I would hold probably.

On Jan. 26th, AbbVie reported fourth-quarter earnings before the markets opened.

It was another spectacular quarter from this biopharmaceutical company - AbbVies' adjusted net revenues increased by 12.6% in the quarter, accompanied by adjusted EPS growth of 23.3%.

AbbVie's performance was driven by strong results in both Humira sales (12.3% growth) and Imbruvica sales (38.7% growth, including profit sharing).

AbbVie also hiked its guidance. The company now expects 32% earnings growth (at the midpoint) in fiscal 2018.

The company's fundamental performance continues to amaze the markets, but is it still a buy after a 75% increase in price over the last year?

 

[SBJJ]

The Authoritarian Left rears its ugly head

It's ok to call someone a because you disagree politically with them. But you could be dubbed for educating the person who insulted you on what philia actually is

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

I will say to you what I say to everybody. Do not take my advice. lol.

But you have that mindset that we talked about. You are still panicking day by day. A lot of top investors don't even check their portfolio daily. They are holding what they got. Ride it out and see what happens. Or not. But like Alibaba for example. Bought at 170 and sold at like 190. It has went up 20 bucks since I sold it about a week and a half ago. And I am sure it will keep going up.



Actually it is up 14%. Wow. That is a toughie. No idea, man. I would hold probably.

On Jan. 26th, AbbVie reported fourth-quarter earnings before the markets opened.

It was another spectacular quarter from this biopharmaceutical company - AbbVies' adjusted net revenues increased by 12.6% in the quarter, accompanied by adjusted EPS growth of 23.3%.

AbbVie's performance was driven by strong results in both Humira sales (12.3% growth) and Imbruvica sales (38.7% growth, including profit sharing).

AbbVie also hiked its guidance. The company now expects 32% earnings growth (at the midpoint) in fiscal 2018.

The company's fundamental performance continues to amaze the markets, but is it still a buy after a 75% increase in price over the last year?

Ha! I promise not to take your advice.

I wouldn't say I'm panicking so much as unaccustomed to something in my portfolio gaining 15% in a day (and 33% in three months).

I'm annoyed I didn't buy Intel when that news broke. Thought it would drop more and was gonna give it another day but then the sucker went back up. Killing it today.

 

[Lead]

It's ok to call someone a because you disagree politically with them. But you could be dubbed for educating the person who insulted you on what philia actually is

People are not allowed to throw that name around anymore either. If you report those posts, they will be deleted. With that said, we also are not hosting any conversations about this topic as Limbo mentioned. It only causes problems. We would like all of this just to no longer be a thing here.

 

[JonesBones]

There is something to momentum, though. Here's Cliff Asness and others on it:

http://business.nasdaq.com/media/Fa...azzini_Moskowitz_and_Asness_tcm5044-42326.pdf

Ah, this is the kind of stuff I like. I can make it into a picture. It is like a car or train. It is Newtonian. An object at rest tends to stay at rest. Like AMD stock. Whereas NVIDIA is a steaming train and dips are like just hitting the brakes for a second, like for a curve. But in general that thing is gonna keep its pace of rising.

A site says: It is important to understand that when the momentum indicator slides downward below the zero line and then reverses in an upward direction, it does not mean that the downtrend is finished. It merely means that the downtrend is slowing down.

With my train analogy: tapping the brakes does not mean you are gonna stop or slow down for a long period. And AMD is stuck at the station.


People have been waiting on AMD for a year to get moving. And it just hasn't. An object at rest.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Ah, this is the kind of stuff I like. I can make it into a picture. It is like a car or train. It is Newtonian. An object at rest tends to stay at rest. Like AMD stock. Whereas NVIDIA is a steaming train and dips are like just hitting the brakes for a second, like for a curve. But in general that thing is gonna keep its pace of rising.

A site says: It is important to understand that when the momentum indicator slides downward below the zero line and then reverses in an upward direction, it does not mean that the downtrend is finished. It merely means that the downtrend is slowing down.

With my train analogy: tapping the brakes does not mean you are gonna stop or slow down for a long period. And AMD is stuck at the station.


People have been waiting on AMD for a year to get moving. And it just hasn't. An object at rest.

Asness is a good writer, in addition to being pretty solid on some of that stuff (though he embarrassingly was warning of inflation after the crash--I chalk that up to tribalism fucking with his thinking). Generally one of the smartest right-wingers around.

 

[HomerThompson]

People are not allowed to throw that name around anymore either. If you report those posts, they will be deleted. With that said, we also are not hosting any conversations about this topic as Limbo mentioned. It only causes problems. We would like all of this just to no longer be a thing here.

What about posters talking about other poster's kids? I thought that was 100% off limits too?

 

[Lead]

What about posters talking about other poster's kids? I thought that was 100% off limits too?

Yes and when I looked at the report you mentioned, that post was deleted.

 

[HomerThompson]

Yes and when I looked at the report you mentioned, that post was deleted.

But the poster wasn't even infracted. That's an egregious breach of forum rules, imo. I've been infracted for much much less. I was under the impression that there was zero tolerance for that kind of bullshit.

 

[Lead]

But the poster wasn't even infracted. That's an egregious breach of forum rules, imo. I've been infracted for much much less. I was under the impression that there was zero tolerance for that kind of bullshit.

Sometimes you may experience a variation of results from an instance. This is inevitable with a forum that has about 7+ mods handling issues. We try to reach a level of consistency but it isn't 100%. What does happen though is a decent amount of communication/notes and warnings/PMs when something happens whether or not it necessarily results in infractions. I mentioned earlier I could bring it up to the moderator who handled to report that you wanted more details. Either way, we do know that event occurred and know about it if it becomes a reoccurring problem.