War Room Lounge v60: "Joe Biden, and no we're not joking" -America

[My Spot]

I didn't say that. Stop being stupid.

 

[all caps]

I didn't say that. Stop being stupid.

I said if they really need a gun, don't be fucked up and take meds

There are like 3 or 4 generations in a row that have been medicated from youth, because science said so..

 

[The Diplomat]

There are like 3 or 4 generations in a row that have been medicated from youth, because science said so..

Then it'll address two birds with one stone

 

[LMP]

There are like 3 or 4 generations in a row that have been medicated from youth, because science said so..

Is this now an anti-vaccination thread?

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

people "like" way worse things around here then WDA's incessant hackery
@Cubo de Sangre

 

[luckyshot]

The toughest state to get back is the one where Biden would be strongest as a ringer, too- PA.

Michigan should come home this cycle, and I think most Democrats would keep Minnesota.

As a state with a large non-college white population, Wisconsin is trending red, overall, but I think Biden could take it.

Pennsylvania is a state made for Biden.

Biden should hold Virginia pretty easily— and I don’t think VA is an “automatic” state for and Democrats in 2020.

Florida is the Silver Tuna. It has been a slim but stubborn Republican state, even in the “blue wave” midterm— which is very concerning. Biden is a perfect candidate to win enough of the AARP crowd. I will never pin a single hope on Florida ever again, but if Biden can’t win it, it is not winnable for a Democrat.

Texas is probably still out of reach, but Biden is leading the Texas polls, so one would assume he has the best shot there.

Ohio may be too “Trumpy” for any Democrat in 2020, but hey, Sherrod got re-elected, so you never know.

 

[My Spot]

Michigan and Minnesota should come home this cycle.

Wisconsin is still trending red, overall, but I think Biden could take it.

Pennsylvania is a state made for Biden.

Biden should hold Virginia pretty easily.

Florida is the Silver Tuna. It has been a slim but stubborn Republican state, even in the “blue wave” midterm— which is very concerning. Biden is a perfect candidate to win the AARP crowd. I will never pin a single hope on Florida ever again, but if Biden can’t win it, it is not winnable for a Democrat.

Texas is probably still out of reach, but Biden is leading the Texas polls, so one would assume he has the best shot there.

Ohio may be to “Trumpy” for any Democrat in 2020, but hey, Sherrod got re-elected, so you never know.

Dems have a huge advantage with FL now since a bunch of former felons can vote and all the people who came here from Puerto Rico.

 

[NoDak]

Spoiler

yo mamma

Leave my mama out of it, one of the few life-long liberals in my whole family. She's a self-made woman who struck it mildly rich after the divorce; we fine dine in Scottsdale and laugh at the chuds back home. She likes Warren though, much for the same reasons as below.

The pickings are slim. He is obviously the most experienced candidate, he's fairly moderate by today's standards which I think might help him in some states, and I think he would do just fine as a 4-year stop gap. Mayor Pete is the brightest and most articulate, but he has no experience to speak of.

Who do you support?

Who'd you vote for in 2016?

I haven't voted in a POTUS election since the first time I was eligible (in 2008 for Obama) but I support Bernie and Liz. Not because I'd necessarily benefit from their policies nor find them immediately actionable, but to at least move the dial towards socioeconomic reform before wealth and income inequality starts bearing down and tearing at the fabric of my country.

 

[luckyshot]

Dems have a huge advantage with FL now since a bunch of former felons can vote and all the people who came here from Puerto Rico.

Shrugs. I think Trump will do just fine with the criminal crowd.

 

[My Spot]

Shrugs. I think Trump will do just fine with the criminal crowd.

The majority of them are athletic and explosive though.

 

[LMP]

The majority of them are athletic and explosive though.

 

[luckyshot]

The majority of them are athletic and explosive though.

Trump probably does better with AA criminals than with the AA population overall. I don’t think a bunch of ex-felons are beating down a path to vote for Joe Biden, either.

 

[Fawlty]

Florida is the Silver Tuna. It has been a slim but stubborn Republican state, even in the “blue wave” midterm— which is very concerning. Biden is a perfect candidate to win the AARP crowd. I will never pin a single hope on Florida ever again, but if Biden can’t win it, it is not winnable for a Democrat.

Yep, and it's turning red quickly despite the temporary shot of felons and Puerto Ricans. It's the Boomer Promised Land, and Boomers never die. It's going to change hands later, but not now. Agreed that Biden is probably the one to get it done there if anybody is.

 

[Trotsky]

Dems have a huge advantage with FL now since a bunch of former felons can vote and all the people who came here from Puerto Rico.

No, they don't.

Analysis of ex-felon voting shows that there isn't a strong partisan lean (87% of black ex-felons vote Democrat, but they only make up about 30% of the ex-felon population, while the other two thirds tend to vote Republican) and that the participation rates are incredibly low at around 15%.

And, as far as Puerto Rico goes, the largest amount of Puerto Ricans in Florida after the hurricane was 50,000, which is an amount that has likely declined as some moved back amid the recovery.

Realistically, with both taken into account, you're looking at, at best, a fraction of a percent benefit to Democrats. Under the most fantastical of scenarios, it would at most result in about +100,000 for Democrats. And that still wouldn't erase Trump's margin of victory from 2016.

 

[all caps]

Is this now an anti-vaccination thread?

Bro... I'm talking about medication

I havent even got to the vaccine deal yet!!!

 

[sickc0d3r]

Michigan should come home this cycle, and I think most Democrats would keep Minnesota.

As a state with a large non-college white population, Wisconsin is trending red, overall, but I think Biden could take it.

Pennsylvania is a state made for Biden.

Biden should hold Virginia pretty easily— and I don’t think VA is an “automatic” state for and Democrats in 2020.

Florida is the Silver Tuna. It has been a slim but stubborn Republican state, even in the “blue wave” midterm— which is very concerning. Biden is a perfect candidate to win enough of the AARP crowd. I will never pin a single hope on Florida ever again, but if Biden can’t win it, it is not winnable for a Democrat.

Texas is probably still out of reach, but Biden is leading the Texas polls, so one would assume he has the best shot there.

Ohio may be too “Trumpy” for any Democrat in 2020, but hey, Sherrod got re-elected, so you never know.

Touching on a point I made earlier, since you mentioned WI might be trending red, check out that state's black voter participation in 2016:

Nearly a 30% drop from 2012, more than 20% below the average since 2000. In a state that went to Trump by 22k votes. I'd bet my bile duct WI flips blue again in 2020.

Another interesting state is North Carolina.

 

[My Spot]

No, they don't.

Analysis of ex-felon voting shows that there isn't a strong partisan lean (87% of black ex-felons vote Democrat, but they only make up about 30% of the ex-felon population, while the other two thirds tend to vote Republican) and that the participation rates are incredibly low at around 15%.

And, as far as Puerto Rico goes, the largest amount of Puerto Ricans in Florida after the hurricane was 50,000, which is an amount that has likely declined as some moved back amid the recovery.

Realistically, with both taken into account, you're looking at, at best, a fraction of a percent benefit to Democrats. Under the most fantastical of scenarios, it would at most result in about +100,000 for Democrats. And that still wouldn't erase Trump's margin of victory from 2016.

3.6:1 though.

 

[HereticBD]

Zebby is smarter and more scrupulously accurate than 80% of right-wing posters here.

Yeah, because his posts are "Orange Man Bad", and he never disagrees with you.

That's essentially how you and your lot judge these things. Viva would be your best bud as well, if only he didn't disagree with you on occasion. If you weren't informed of WDA's obvious trolling from a third party, he'd be on your "Greatest Posters" list too.

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

Dems have a huge advantage with FL now since a bunch of former felons can vote and all the people who came here from Puerto Rico.

Isn't the GOP fighting the felon thing tooth and nail?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna985156

"
Florida legislators advanced a bill on Tuesday that is expected to limit the number of former felons who can vote, in part by requiring former felons to pay back all court fees and fines before they can register.

Critics say the measure hits lower-income Floridians hardest and is designed to defy the will of the voters, who passed a constitutional amendment last year restoring voting rights to some felons who have completed their sentences without any mention of fines and fees. Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., wrote on Twitter that the measure was "a poll tax by any other name.""

 

[My Spot]

Isn't the GOP fighting the felon thing tooth and nail?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna985156

"
Florida legislators advanced a bill on Tuesday that is expected to limit the number of former felons who can vote, in part by requiring former felons to pay back all court fees and fines before they can register.

Critics say the measure hits lower-income Floridians hardest and is designed to defy the will of the voters, who passed a constitutional amendment last year restoring voting rights to some felons who have completed their sentences without any mention of fines and fees. Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., wrote on Twitter that the measure was "a poll tax by any other name.""

I don't know. I'm not an ex felon nor am I poor so I haven't paid much attention to it since the ballot initiative.
I do think ex felons who have served their time should be able to vote and own guns again.