War Room Lounge v188: Tittle Pending Suggestions Whalecome

[Rational Poster]

Coming right up

I actually have one of those in my attic.

 

[Andy Capp]

@Trotsky


I’m actually trying to spend less time here so I can focus on career stuff. I like the lounge, but it distracts me during the day (which was kind of the point) and I’m not great at compartmentalizing, so it’s easier for me to just cut most of it out. The last time I made a conscious effort away from this place was for the same reasons before Covid happened. I’ll pop in every now and then to share interesting links, dumb memes or whatnot. I definitely won’t be moving to reddit @JDragon


Speaking of links, here’s another good one @Jack V Savage @Fawlty


https://theconversation.com/conserv...do-when-evaluating-scientific-evidence-149132

Funny you should post this. Just the other day I posted about the idea described in the article about poorly interpreting anecdotal data. I mean, it's a funny coincidence of posts about funny coincidences LOL
To wit,

Ok, so this is another one of those freaky coincidences that has been weirding me out lately. I was thinking about Steven Segal just before I came into the thread. I was going to make one of those random thought of the day posts about how he runs, about whether it was efficient or not, but to refresh my memory I watched a video of clips of him running and it reminded me that it had nothing to do with why people make fun of him for that. Then I come in here and this post and the one you quoted are the first new ones I saw. Hilarious, but weird. This is not the first time something along that exact line has happened.

For instance, there's the peculiar recurring connection to Jeopardy. We watch faithfully, but not live, so we can be several episodes behind or right up to date watching it on the PVR but it seemingly has no effect on these coincidences. Not too long ago there was the case of the final Jeopardy question from an episode that was about a week old when we watched it. I'm not too well educated on US Civil War presidents being Canadian, but I have a vague to pretty good idea of around when many of them served, and when a related question came up, I had an inspiration and guessed Andrew Johnson even though I know nothing about him. Turned out I was wrong, but two of the contestants guessed the same thing. And then the very first thing I saw when I came on here next was a picture of Johnson someone had posted and some discussion about him or other. And the list goes on, in fact. There have been several other such occurrences, though I don't usually mention them on here because an odd coincidence out of the blue means nothing. I don't even have to be convinced the foregoing really has no significance, but I can totally see how a person might come to a good faith belief in having paranormal ability or sensitivity of some kind, especially if the person were just a tad broken and felt in need of something to identify with, so to me it's extremely interesting.

I'm the first one to shit on snake oil salesmen and grifters (RIP Amazing Randy) but I can now say with some confidence it's quite unfair to automatically assume a person is one of those or just plain delusional if they think they're psychic. For a few summers not all that long ago, I worked for a tour company driving people around PEI. I had an uncanny knack for avoiding rain. No matter how much it rained while we were en route from A to B, you might not believe me when I say this, but I got rained on far less than any of the other drivers year in year out. And again there's all these funny coincidences over the last several years, and other things as well. Twice in the last 2 days my wife and I have accidentally injured--though it was extremely minor) ourselves in the same body part in the same manner (finger then back) but I was present when she did hers and had not yet told her of my own so there is no possibility it influenced her even unconsciously. There was also the pool tournament where whenever I flipped the coin to see who would break first, it came up heads, 8 times in a row.

Here's the thing, there are bazillions of cross connections of actions all throughout the world every moment, and there are 7 billion people. Out of all of them, there are bound to be people who experience normal amounts of things like weird coincidences, people who experience very few such events, and people who experience many unusual circumstances without there being any explanation for them whatsoever other than random chance. If you flip a fair coin a billion times it will likely come up pretty close to 50% heads and 50% tails but you might see times during all those flips when heads comes up 1000 times in a row and that doesn't mean anything significant in light of the total number of coin tosses.

So, yeah, just sayin' LOL

 

[Andy Capp]

BTW @Fawlty Meant to suggest this quote for the title,

@salamander re: "Watchu rooting through my hamper for?"
https://forums.sherdog.com/posts/162571981/

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

 

[Fawlty]

Lest we forget.

It sounds like he truly genuinely cares imo.

 

[Fawlty]

Happy Veteran's Day to the brave men and women who came home, as well as those who didn't.

Gonna be a little controversial here. I hope all veterans are ignored and not given discounts today.

#imeanitjustasmuchasyoudo

 

[Trotsky]

Good, pretty detailed piece from Silver on the "miss" of 2020:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/

@Denter

Pretty disappointing that, other than saying there was an upset in a race with a narrow lead, he didn't talk at all about the polls being 14 (!!!) points off in the Maine Senate Race. Collins hadn't led in any of the thirty polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight in the fourth months preceding the election.

The Maine flub was exceptional. The fact that he didn't tackle that enormous eyesore makes me wary of that being an actual, impartial analysis rather than self-interested apologetics.

 

[Prokofievian]

It sounds like he truly genuinely cares imo.

Who? @Confucamus? Fuck that cunt. But still, lest we forget.

In a way, rememberance day is probably more culturally important than Canada day for Canadians, despite it not being a national holiday. It's way more serious. I personally think it's because WWI was sort of our ''founding myth.'' The British North America Act confederated Canada, but we were a fiefdom until after WWI. We had no choice but to fight. But because of our efforts in WWI, we became independent. We volunteered for WWII. Almost 10% of our population was involved in the Nazi killin' business, including my great uncle Arthur who flew 44 sorties over Germany.

DO IT AGAIN MAD BOMBER ARTHUR!

 

[A Lurker]

Here you go @Trotsky @BEER @tonni

need

 

[Jack V Savage]

Pretty disappointing that, other than saying there was an upset in a race with a narrow lead, he didn't talk at all about the polls being 14 (!!!) points off in the Maine Senate Race. Collins hadn't led in any of the thirty polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight in the fourth months preceding the election.

The Maine flub was exceptional. The fact that he didn't tackle that enormous eyesore makes me wary of that being an actual, impartial analysis rather than self-interested apologetics.

Hmm. I don't see that. I'm also not seeing the polls being off by the margin you're talking about. Not even a single one, much less "polls" (which I think implies the average):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/maine/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/maine/

Looks like their model gave Gideon a 59% chance of winning with a median vote share of 51%.

 

[Fawlty]

Who? @Confucamus? Fuck that cunt. But still, lest we forget.

In a way, rememberance day is probably more culturally important than Canada day for Canadians, despite it not being a national holiday. It's way more serious. I personally think it's because WWI was sort of our ''founding myth.'' The British North America Act confederated Canada, but we were a fiefdom until after WWI. We had no choice but to fight. But because of our efforts in WWI, we became independent. We volunteered for WWII. Almost 10% of our population was involved in the Nazi killin' business, including my great uncle Arthur who flew 44 sorties over Germany.

DO IT AGAIN MAD BOMBER ARTHUR!

I hate to tell you this bud, but we barely mention Canadian WW2 efforts even in college. That's pretty badass though!

I thought it was funny that he posted a twitter from a disgusting election CT nut and garbage news pusher to commemorate the day...like, fuck off, cunt. LOL.

 

[Confucamus]

Gonna be a little controversial here. I hope all veterans are ignored and not given discounts today.

#imeanitjustasmuchasyoudo

What a shame. Patriotism and gratitude are controversial?

#theydiedtoprotectyourentitledlife

 

[Prokofievian]

I hate to tell you this bud, but we barely mention Canadian WW2 efforts even in college. That's pretty badass though!

They're not really important for Americans to know about. I was seeing this British girl for a while, though, and she actually had no idea we were in either war and that was quite triggering.

 

[Fawlty]

What a shame. Patriotism and gratitude are controversial?

#theydiedtoprotectyourentitledlife

I hope every veteran finds a small hole adjacent to the crotch seam in their favorite jeans today, which becomes symbolic to them that their contributions to their country are impermanent and will soon be lost to time.

 

[Trotsky]

Hmm. I don't see that. I'm also not seeing the polls being off by the margin you're talking about. Not even a single one, much less "polls" (which I think implies the average).

Collins won by 9 points. So any poll with Gideon +5 or more would be off by that margin.

These are the polls just among the thirty or so polls included in that link since 7/3

November 2 - Gideon +8
October 15 - Gideon +7
October 1 - Gideon +8
October 1 - Gideon +5
September 21 - Gideon +7
September 21 - Gideon +5
September 18 - Gideon +5
September 16 - Gideon +12
September 11 - Gideon +8
August 18 - Gideon +5
August 11- Gideon +8
August 11 - Gideon +5
August 10 - Gideon +7
July 28 - Gideon +5
July 24 - Gideon +5

Combine those with the remaining polls, which all have Gideon ahead 1-4 points, and you'll get roughly a 5 points average.

It doesn't seem to be posted anymore, but IIRC the RCP average was Gideon +5.

 

[Fawlty]

I hope the cops set up a honeypot with a "Free Trump Hats for Veterans" booth across from a heavy-trafficked walkway with no nearby crosswalk, and then writes everybody who comes over a jaywalking ticket.

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

Yeah, a regular working day here in Ontario.

(Except for govt employees)

That's bullshit

 

[Sketch]

I dont have a landline either. Only a cellular.

@Sketch laughed at me because I dont own a computer... but I'm not sure what I would use it for that my phone can't already do.

Nobody has a landline now a days. Having no computer is still weird though.

 

[Sketch]

I hope the cops set up a honeypot with a "Free Trump Hats for Veterans" booth across from a heavy-trafficked walkway with no nearby crosswalk, and then writes everybody who comes over a jaywalking ticket.

Nice fantasy. What if they incorporate sugary donuts into the mix?

 

[Jack V Savage]

Collins won by 9 points. So any poll with Gideon +5 or more would be off by that margin.

These are the polls just among the thirty or so polls included in that link since 7/3

November 2 - Gideon +8
October 15 - Gideon +7
October 1 - Gideon +8
October 1 - Gideon +5
September 21 - Gideon +7
September 21 - Gideon +5
September 18 - Gideon +5
September 16 - Gideon +12
September 11 - Gideon +8
August 18 - Gideon +5
August 11- Gideon +8
August 11 - Gideon +5
August 10 - Gideon +7
July 28 - Gideon +5
July 24 - Gideon +5

Combine those with the remaining polls, which all have Gideon ahead 1-4 points, and you'll get roughly a 5 points average.

It doesn't seem to be posted anymore, but IIRC the RCP average was Gideon +5.

OK, wasn't considering Collins' margin. But the 538 weighted average had Gideon up 2. And it's tricky because of the ranked-choice situation. Collins has 51.2% so far (counting isn't done, as far as I can see). If she'd failed to pass the 50% threshold, the ranked-choice thing would come into play, which would change the final margin, possibly by a lot. Seems likely that Savage's votes would overwhelmingly go to Gideon if that kicked in.