War Room Lounge v152: Putting your back out for a few days just from bending over. Good times.

[Jack V Savage]

My gut tells me (rightly or wrongly) that teams anchored around long ball hitters doesn't translate well to winning World Series. Which isn't to say a small ball team is, but would say things tweak when baseball is played at its elitist level. it's like Felix Trinidad versus Bernard Hopkins. All that punching power Trinidad had is fancy and all that, but when it comes down to it, at the elite level, the raw power only means so much if you can't set it up, and when two really good fighters fight, the odds of a kayo fall precipitously. Now, Hopkins isn't exactly a powder puff puncher, but he's more like a 7 out of 10 instead of a 10 out of 10. So some capability is required, but it's not what puts you over the top, it's the intangibles and doing the little things right consistently.

Same thing in baseball, you get a big power hitter in there you can make them miss all or most of the night, and take them out without having to rely on the big swing yourself.

The problem with this is that it's just not how the whole thing works in baseball. Some really good pitchers' only weakness is that they're prone to giving up homers, for example. Generally, what pitchers have control over is strikeout rate, walk rate, and flyball/groundball rate. The percentage of balls in play that become hits is mostly about defense, the park, and luck. And the percentage of flyballs that go over the wall is mostly luck. Groundballs are more likely to be hits than flyballs, and obviously more likely to turn into double plays. So a pitcher with a high K rate, a low walk rate, and a high flyball rate will be very good (putting all three of those together guarantees it) and will allow very few baserunners but will give up some homers. That's a common profile for an elite pitcher (a guy who throws a lot of high heat with good stuff and command will fit that). There are other types of good pitchers, of course. And of course not every WS pitcher is good. And flyball hitters tend to do better against groundball pitchers. And the best hitters overall tend to be the best against all types of pitches. Here's the top hitters against sinkers in 2019 (number is xwOBA):

1) .539 -- Mike Trout, Angels
2) .514 -- Anthony Rendon, Angels
3) .492 -- Josh Bell, Pirates
4) .483 -- Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
5) .478 -- Mookie Betts, Red Sox

 

[Tycho- Taylor's Version]

Of greater interest is the lack reaction of those who are always (I'm not exaggerating) first to sprint into each thread: "In before the lefits cunts defend this" But when right-wing cunts defend the the indefensible all that Big Dick Energy suddenly disapates into a ghost of queef.

As I've said it before, this encapsulates the experience (black and white alike) of many who share rightwing beliefs in terms of religious and social issues, but are sickened by the putridness of their expidient sanctimony and the lack of self-policing in their racist likkle knitting circles.

It's been established by certain dorks who shall not be tagged that vague personal affronts from however long ago are a higher priority to condemn than whatever (disgusting, unacceptable) sentiment that weird pop-up is referring to.

 

[Grant Me Revenge]

Baseball is a silly game. Combat sports is the only true sport.

 

[Fawlty]

Wai? Hard to tell from that short of a post, but it has a Wai vibe to it.

 

[Sketch]

Baseball is a silly game. Combat sports is the only true sport.

Baseball is a giant fishing net to catch autistic people.

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

 

[Prokofievian]

The problem with this is that it's just not how the whole thing works in baseball. Some really good pitchers' only weakness is that they're prone to giving up homers, for example. Generally, what pitchers have control over is strikeout rate, walk rate, and flyball/groundball rate. The percentage of balls in play that become hits is mostly about defense, the park, and luck. And the percentage of flyballs that go over the wall is mostly luck. Groundballs are more likely to be hits than flyballs, and obviously more likely to turn into double plays. So a pitcher with a high K rate, a low walk rate, and a high flyball rate will be very good (putting all three of those together guarantees it) and will allow very few baserunners but will give up some homers. That's a common profile for an elite pitcher (a guy who throws a lot of high heat with good stuff and command will fit that). There are other types of good pitchers, of course. And of course not every WS pitcher is good. And flyball hitters tend to do better against groundball pitchers. And the best hitters overall tend to be the best against all types of pitches. Here's the top hitters against sinkers in 2019 (number is xwOBA):

1) .539 -- Mike Trout, Angels
2) .514 -- Anthony Rendon, Angels
3) .492 -- Josh Bell, Pirates
4) .483 -- Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
5) .478 -- Mookie Betts, Red Sox

In hockey, faceoffs are one of these ''small ball'' things that gets seriously overrated, or misevaluated. No analysis has ever shown faceoff win rate to predictive of goals for with any sort of effect size. This conflicts with the layman's understanding of the game. Everyone with a favourite team has watched their team botch a faceoff in their own zone, leading directly to a goal against. So they are totally unwilling to let go of the idea that faceoffs ''matter.'' This leads to people vastly overrating the contributions of guys who can ''take the tough draws.''

But what's happening is not that faceoffs don't ''matter.'' It's that you can't do anything about it. The best guys in the entire league will win one or two more draws per game than average. That's it. There's nobody winning 80% of their draws over a large sample, not even close. Everyone is basically within +/- 10% of 50%. If you ever hit 60% in a full season as a center, you're a god. There is no strategy to get more goals by winning more faceoffs because you can't really build a team in a way that maximizes faceoff wins.

 

[AgonyandIrony]

Baseball is a giant fishing net to catch autistic people.

Weird visual but I approve.

 

[Gregolian]

In hockey, faceoffs are one of these ''small ball'' things that gets seriously overrated, or misevaluated. No analysis has ever shown faceoff win rate to predictive of goals for with any sort of effect size. This conflicts with the layman's understanding of the game. Everyone with a favourite team has watched their team botch a faceoff in their own zone, leading directly to a goal against. So they are totally unwilling to let go of the idea that faceoffs ''matter.'' This leads to people vastly overrating the contributions of guys who can ''take the tough draws.''

But what's happening is not that faceoffs don't ''matter.'' It's that you can't do anything about it. The best guys in the entire league will win one or two more draws per game than average. That's it. There's nobody winning 80% of their draws over a large sample, not even close. Everyone is basically within +/- 10% of 50%. If you ever hit 60% in a full season as a center, you're a god. There is no strategy to get more goals by winning more faceoffs because you can't really build a team in a way that maximizes faceoff wins.

Granted I'm a casual fan but hockey has always felt like a sport that has a ton of random-ness to it with how the puck bounces/moves around the ice and a lot of what the team can control is simply being in the right place at the right time to score... and having a good goalie that can stop at least 90% of shots and even then that's not a guarantee.

Rask one game I watched I think stopped over 95% of shots that were on goal and the team lost... like 2-1.

 

[Gregolian]

As an aside, can I just say that of the modern adult cartoons (no not hentai you fucking perverts) like American Dad, Family Guy, South Park, Futurama so on and so forth... the episodes where Futurama "takes down" religion are probably the least overtly "anti religion".

The one real exception is when Fry, Leela, and Bender land on an Ancient Egyptian planet where the priest class is at the "prophecy wall"


The very next episode is the one where Bender has become a God for these small space beings where he tries to do "miracles" and fucks up and then legit says to Malachi "every time I try to intervene things go to shit" and he starts taking a hands off approach and tells the civilization on his stomach to solve their own problems.... which causes them to nuke the civilization on his ass.

 

[tonni]

 

[skysolo]

I think @BEER and @AnGrYcRoW would appreciate these gems.

the video vindicates chauvin. everything about st. george is a lie

I still think Floyd choked on the gun he had been pointing at the pregnant lady and then tried to swallow when the cops showed up.

 

[Prokofievian]

Granted I'm a casual fan but hockey has always felt like a sport that has a ton of random-ness to it with how the puck bounces/moves around the ice and a lot of what the team can control is simply being in the right place at the right time to score... and having a good goalie that can stop at least 90% of shots and even then that's not a guarantee.

Rask one game I watched I think stopped over 95% of shots that were on goal and the team lost... like 2-1.

Goalies are another one. Everyone who has a team remembers their goalie standing on their head, leading to a win in what would normally be a lost game. So people say ''goalies matter.'' My own team has been infected with this nonsense for decades. Part of this is because we haven't had a legitimate superstar forward since le démon blond so we've forgotten what it is to be the hammer instead of the nail.

But the problem is that the best goalie in the league is not that much better than a very average goalie in many respects. Really the only thing that matters is GAA. If you give me a goalie's GAA, I can tell you with good accuracy what else they did. But here's the thing: about 1/3rd of the time, your goalie's going to get smoked. Doesn't matter who: vezina winner, or journeyman. This percentage is very stable. When Bob won his first vezina he still allowed 3 or more goals 31% of the time. And the problem is, every team (just about) has a goalie who's capable of 0.900+. Every playoff team has goaltending at or above 0.915. There's just no way to get an advantage there. So naturally, the Montreal Canadiens spent 10.5 million per year on a guy whose job it is to get hit by a puck.

 

[skysolo]

"Come on, man.

It's like saying you got in this program if you take a test on if you're taking cocaine or not. What do you think?

You a junkie? Huh?"

-Candidate for the presidency of the United States of America

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

Goalies are another one. Everyone who has a team remembers their goalie standing on their head, leading to a win in what would normally be a lost game. So people say ''goalies matter.'' My own team has been infected with this nonsense for decades. Part of this is because we haven't had a legitimate superstar forward since le démon blond so we've forgotten what it is to be the hammer instead of the nail.

But the problem is that the best goalie in the league is not that much better than a very average goalie in many respects. Really the only thing that matters is GAA. If you give me a goalie's GAA, I can tell you with good accuracy what else they did. But here's the thing: about 1/3rd of the time, your goalie's going to get smoked. Doesn't matter who: vezina winner, or journeyman. This percentage is very stable. When Bob won his first vezina he still allowed 3 or more goals 31% of the time. And the problem is, every team (just about) has a goalie who's capable of 0.900+. Every playoff team has goaltending at or above 0.915. There's just no way to get an advantage there. So naturally, the Montreal Canadiens spent 10.5 million per year on a guy whose job it is to get hit by a puck.

Prime Hasek though.....

Granted he didn't win a Cup until Detroit but he drug that Sabers team deep a few times

 

[Prokofievian]

Prime Hasek though.....

Granted he didn't win a cop until Detroit but he drug that Sabers team deep a few times

That's true, but the league has changed since then. Back when breaking 0.900 was incredible a goalie could make a huge difference. Hasek was dominant because he was the only guy who could seal the ice. Right now the position has matured to the point where a human can't physiologically be dominant enough over his competition. Human reflexes aren't fast enough for reaction times to contend with shooters. The whole game is being big, and being on your angle.

 

[Andy Capp]

Baseball is a giant fishing net to catch autistic people.

Weird visual but I approve.

Would you guys care to describe for me the characteristics you have in mind when you refer to people as autistic in this context? I see it done a lot on here but I'm left wondering who people are really picturing in their minds eye when they use it.

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

Just finished the episode. I actually thought it did a great job at wrapping things up, and transcending into Treasure Island.

Spoilers for those who haven't seen it and wish to

Spoiler

So, where to begin.

My main complaints with the show were historical ones. But I fully understand it's a pseudo-fictional historical show.

For starters, 1715 is a nice even year to set things off, but most of this wouldn't have happened around then. Charles Vane didn't die in Nassau, and Blackbeard certainly wasn't gruesomely killed by Woodes Rogers. Teach was strategically killed by a man named Robert Maynard, who then cut off Teach's and put it on his ship as a warning to other pirates. Maynard faded into obscurity, with no prestige or honor taken from his account. They used him up and spit him out, kind of like the general outlook of England in the show. Woodes Rogers died in the 1730s, Rackham etc.

But other than historical, and minor quips, the show was tremendous as a prequel to the Treasure Island novel. The final episode segued perfectly -

In the novel, John Silver said once or twice that he had a wife of African descent, so all of that worked out nicely. Captain Flint was said to have died in Savannah, Georgia from alcohol poisoning. The way they worked in Thomas and the plantation gelled. Flint's conversation with Silver about how one day, maybe long from now, Silver will grow stale and bored of the home life and want more...

A few questions are left open. Like how Ben Gunn (who never ONCE talked about cheese, damnit!) was marooned, or how Billy Bones ends up escaping the island. In the novel, they said that Flint was marooned, but that never actually happened. It's why they had that monologue at the end about how some stories end up sounding better than the truth.

Jack Rackham's story was great, tbh. Even though clearly the real Calico Jack never did any of that stuff, the way they threw Mary Read in at the last second was awesome. I was waiting for that. In reality, Jack Rackham is hanged in 1720, and his two lovers Anne Bonny and Mary Read both say they are pregnant to prolong execution.

I also loved how they kept the two clear fan favorites, the intellectual gods amongst barbarians, Jack and John Silver, far from each other until that one moment in the finale where they come up with the plan. "Instead of a multitude of questions, lets start trading answers..."

All in all, It was great. Not sure what you hated about it, but I'd love to hear it.

Given your comprehensive breakdown and obvious in depth knowledge of the source material I'm now feeling rather insecure about my position lol

It's been years since I watched it now but the whole season felt rushed for one thing , and I remember thinking they seemed to teleport from one place to the other, but the retirement community for pirates just irked me , left a sour taste in my mouth .

 

[The Diplomat]

Given your comprehensive breakdown and obvious in depth knowledge of the source material I'm now feeling rather insecure about my position lol

It's been years since I watched it now but the whole season felt rushed for one thing , and I remember thinking they seemed to teleport from one place to the other, but the retirement community for pirates just irked me , left a sour taste in my mouth .

Yeah, the timing was weird. If Jack Rackham sails from the Caribbean to Philly, it's going to take at least 2-3 weeks. So everytime he went back and forth, I figured a bunch of time had past.

And aye, it was a bit of a quick happy ending for Flint with the community, i'll admit. But the way it flowed into Treasure Island worked. I just wish it wasn't all resolved in 5 minutes through a John Silver monologue.

 

[Gregolian]

Prime Hasek though.....

Granted he didn't win a cop until Detroit but he drug that Sabers team deep a few times

I loved Hasek. Dude was so fun to watch.

And he's responsible for this too:


I love how Gaborik is like "wait, what the fuck happened?"

I'm a Bruins fan but God do I love Hasek.


He also had the moment of trying to fight Patrick Roy and falling down and taking out Roy's legs.



@Prokofievian I get what you say about dominant goalies not being "the thing" as much anymore like they were in the time of Hasek, Brodeur, Roy, and others but goddamn... they're still among the best characters on the ice. Rask losing his shit when his blade fell off in the playoffs, Smith constantly breaking his stick and almost smashing a ref, Tim Thomas blasting Burrows with a chop to the leg then decking Sedin.