War Room Lounge v108: The Lord's Work

[PolishHeadlock2]

lol

 

[Fawlty]

I don't think we'll see him for a while after the Biden surge.

Even when he still had his original account he disappeared after losing bets.

He'll probably be back for the GE

Oh shit he's losing a good chunk of cash on this, forgot lol.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Favorite part of that survey was this:

4. The news media is increasingly biased towards Left-wing politicians, including those who are self-proclaimed socialists, and increasingly aligned against policymakers who challenge ideas like the “Green New Deal” that would dramatically expand government control of the economy. Do you consider the media biased in favor of progressivism, including socialist politicians and policies that tend toward socialism?

Yeah, that's pretty crazy. BTW, this reminds me that I saw an old white dude wearing a Hillsdale shirt at a Mexican restaurant in Oakland pretty recently.

 

[Fawlty]

What's the best way to sneak a pic of your ballot when you're not sure whether it's legal? I mean besides remembering to turn off the flash and the fake click sound.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Oh shit he's losing a good chunk of cash on this, forgot lol.

He said he loses $9,500 if Biden (or anyone he wasn't betting on) wins. That should give the lesson some teeth.

I put a couple hundred on Biden right after I saw the thread about Bloomberg dropping out (at I believe -285). I'm a relative piker, but at least I am going home with a fish.

 

[Fawlty]

He said he loses $9,500 if Biden (or anyone he wasn't betting on) wins. That should give the lesson some teeth.

I put a couple hundred on Biden right after I saw the thread about Bloomberg dropping out (at I believe -285).

His compulsive rambling is superior to his compulsive gambling.

And this reminds me how much I love watching people get smashed when they try to hedge into a "sure thing." Maybe it's a touch sadistic of me, but it comes from the same place as the Martingale System-hatred I have in me.

 

[Rational Poster]

What's the best way to sneak a pic of your ballot when you're not sure whether it's legal? I mean besides remembering to turn off the flash and the fake click sound.

Glasses with a camera

 

[Fawlty]

Glasses with a camera

I can't go full spy movie I need to get to the church on time over here bud. Maybe just leave my phone recording and take a screen from the vid? That way I won't middle-aged-man-fumble around so obviously.

 

[Rational Poster]

I can't go full spy movie I need to get to the church on time over here bud

You asked for the best way, dick.

 

[Fawlty]

You asked for the best way, dick.

That's a great way, agreed. Give me a thousand dollars.

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

Oh shit he's losing a good chunk of cash on this, forgot lol.

He made IRL wagers on this?

 

[Rational Poster]

That's a great way, agreed. Give me a thousand dollars.

Bro they're like $50 on amazon.

 

[Trotsky]

Is what Gosar said like a quote/copy pasta? I swear I saw it somewhere else

Also, for those who aren't familiar with him, he's a legitimate moron and a genuine POS. IIRC, even his siblings hate him and campaigned for his opponent.

 

[Jack V Savage]

His compulsive rambling is superior to his compulsive gambling.

And this reminds me how much I love watching people get smashed when they try to hedge into a "sure thing." Maybe it's a touch sadistic of me, but it comes from the same place as the Martingale System-hatred I have in me.

I'd think that one of the lessons that betting a lot teaches anyone is that there are no sure things (and that it's better to think generally in terms of probabilities). Having a good system of thinking means that you're right more often than other people, but depending on what you're talking about, you're probably going to be wrong a lot anyway (even about probabilities). And morons can get things right sometimes (like that one who claimed to have gotten three elections right, out of how many he didn't say, which he thought made him the ultimate authority on elections).

 

[Fawlty]

He made IRL wagers on this?

Oh yes indeed. He posted them a few times, I don't have the posts handy though. Close to $10k down the shitter apparently.

 

[Gregolian]

Oh yes indeed. He posted them a few times, I don't have the posts handy though. Close to $10k down the shitter apparently.

Fucking moron.

At least bet on sports where there are statistics you can look at to make an informed choice.

bets on politics is a complete shot in the dark while yelling “YOLO” when you’re running backwards drunk

 

[Fawlty]

I'd think that one of the lessons that betting a lot teaches anyone is that there are no sure things (and that it's better to think generally in terms of probabilities). Having a good system of thinking means that you're right more often than other people, but depending on what you're talking about, you're probably going to be wrong a lot anyway (even about probabilities). And morons can get things right sometimes (like that one who claimed to have gotten three elections right, out of how many he didn't say, which he thought made him the ultimate authority on elections).

The confession I keep at hand related to this (it's straight up Dunning Kruger honestly) is the 2012 election, which is the first one I took seriously. I called all 50 states and thought it was a meaningful result, that I knew something most people didn't. I didn't do anything close to the same research I do today (which is still very much on the casual side), and basically won some coin flips in a very small number of states. It's actually not hard at all to pick all 50 states, as we know, but 2012 me thought it was. LOL.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Fucking moron.

At least bet on sports where there are statistics you can look at to make an informed choice.

bets on politics is a complete shot in the dark while yelling “YOLO” when you’re running backwards drunk

Locked thread, but here's the quote:

My Current bets:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268

Net profit if Buttigieg wins: >$22,000
Net profit if Sanders wins: >$2,400
Net profit if Warren wins: $0
Net profit if anyone else wins: -$9500

 

[Falsedawn]

What the Houston Texans did to David Carr ranks up there with some of the worst bunglings in sports history.

Dude had everything. Physically strong at 6'3 230. Rocket arm. Quick release. Great touch on his throws. Played in a pro style system. Needed some work on his feet and timing, but the tools were all there.


Revisionist scouting is one of my biggest pet peeves in sports, where sports people say "he wasn't that good" in retrospect, like when pundits said Derek was a better prospect than his brother. If a prospect is good, he'll always have been good.

That's distinct from the rare prospects who get major hype despite not being very good in the first place. Biggest ones that come to mind there are Trent Richardson (no demonstrated vision or tackle breaking ability) and Blake Bortles (mediocre accuracy and lumbering throwing motion).

I just wanted to let you know I read this but don't give enough of a shit about David Carr to type a response.

But I read it, so that's what counts.

 

[Trotsky]

He made IRL wagers on this?

Oh yeah.

He bet a lot on Sanders. A little on Warren. And a lot on Buttigieg.

If Biden wins, he stands to lose like $12,000 IIRC. Maybe more.

It kind of sucks, since his fundamental premise (that Biden would be a bumbling disaster as a candidate) came true. But it's also ironic seeing a conservative (if he still identifies as such; he seemed to be inclined to support Bernie Sanders during his last incarnation) lose by betting against American voters being inattentive, irrational, and borderline stupid. Just because everyone else has lost making that same bet over and over again (2000, 2016, insisting that the karma of abdicating representative responsibility during the Obama era would eventually bite the GOP instead of gain them seats over and over and over again, etc.)