War Room Lounge v108: The Lord's Work

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Falsedawn said:
I just wanted to let you know I read this but don't give enough of a shit about David Carr to type a response.

But I read it, so that's what counts.

<Fedor23>
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Gregolian said:
Fucking moron.

At least bet on sports where there are statistics you can look at to make an informed choice.

bets on politics is a complete shot in the dark while yelling “YOLO” when you’re running backwards drunk
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Hmm, this is actually an interesting question to me, and one I've thought about quite a bit. Sports betting is hard. Really hard. Don't ever believe people who tell you they're good sports bettors. The very best in the world, with lots of insider information and networks of contacts, can have losing years in sports betting. For an individual (say, a regular person without lots of contacts) who is extremely sharp and good with statistics and times his plays well and never bets compulsively, he might expect 1-2% ROI, and an edge that small is maximally swingy (he's going to have huge hot and cold streaks).

I don't know enough about politics to say whether it's more or less exploitable than sports betting. I would guess that it is far more exploitable than sports betting, because the sports betting market as a whole is wicked sharp and incredibly hard to beat in the long run. Because the same thing does not exist for politics, it's almost certainly the case that it's more exploitable in any decent theory, but on the other hand, the uncertainty is enormous and the sample sizes are infinitesimal even compared to sports betting, whose sample sizes for bettors are already quite small (smaller sample sizes mean more uncertainty).

The short answer is I don't know if that's true, and the key point is what you said about making an "informed" choice. It's very very hard to make an informed choice in political betting, even if it's potentially far easier to beat.
 
Fawlty said:
Hmm, this is actually an interesting question to me, and one I've thought about quite a bit. Sports betting is hard. Really hard. Don't ever believe people who tell you they're good sports bettors. The very best in the world, with lots of insider information and networks of contacts, can have losing years in sports betting. For an individual (say, a regular person without lots of contacts) who is extremely sharp and good with statistics and times his plays well and never bets compulsively, he might expect 1-2% ROI, and an edge that small is maximally swingy (he's going to have huge hot and cold streaks).

I don't know enough about politics to say whether it's more or less exploitable than sports betting. I would guess that it is far more exploitable than sports betting, because the sports betting market as a whole is wicked sharp and incredibly hard to beat in the long run. Because the same thing does not exist for politics, it's almost certainly the case that it's more exploitable in any decent theory, but on the other hand, the uncertainty is enormous and the sample sizes are infinitesimal even compared to sports betting, whose sample sizes for bettors are already quite small (smaller sample sizes mean more uncertainty).

The short answer is I don't know if that's true, and the key point is what you said about making an "informed" choice. It's very very hard to make an informed choice in political betting, even if it's potentially far easier to beat.
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For me with sports betting I limit it to like combat sports.

Yes, there is a flakiness to it but say you had a GSP/Serra fight coming up.... putting $100 as a “fuck it yolo” on Serra if he lost that first fight you PROBABLY wouldn’t be pissed. Boxing is similar too once you hit the higher tiered guys (and avoid HWs)
 
Jack V Savage said:
I'd think that one of the lessons that betting a lot teaches anyone is that there are no sure things (and that it's better to think generally in terms of probabilities). Having a good system of thinking means that you're right more often than other people, but depending on what you're talking about, you're probably going to be wrong a lot anyway (even about probabilities). And morons can get things right sometimes (like that one who claimed to have gotten three elections right, out of how many he didn't say, which he thought made him the ultimate authority on elections).
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Hahahaha
 
@Fawlty

There are some patterns you can take into consideration for team sports too:
- NFL, never bet on games where it's a divisional matchup. The fucking 0-16 Lions made the near unbeatable looking Packers fight for wins that season

- NBA, back to back away games? DON'T FUCKING TOUCH the team on the back to back. I bet you look at the record setting Warriors and Bulls teams the losses they experienced were on back to back road games

- NHL, similar to NFL, avoid rivalry games
 
Gregolian said:
For me with sports betting I limit it to like combat sports.

Yes, there is a flakiness to it but say you had a GSP/Serra fight coming up.... putting $100 as a “fuck it yolo” on Serra if he lost that first fight you PROBABLY wouldn’t be pissed. Boxing is similar too once you hit the higher tiered guys (and avoid HWs)
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I think it should be done only for pure entertainment and then you don't have to worry about lobbing in some YOLOs. Sometimes it's nice to have something riding on a fight.

I dunno if you remember the "Plat Casino" threads, before we had vBookie on this site, but I used to set the odds before the bookmaker's odds came out. I thought it would be a great test of my natural handicapping abilities. I actually did better than I expected when it came to matching the opening lines, and I tended to miss them on the correct side (where the initial money in IRL betting came in), but it was really hard and really stressful to do. I determined from that experiment that there was no fucking chance in hell that I could do it for a living, and I could probably only break even or win a little against the market.
 
Gregolian said:
@Fawlty

There are some patterns you can take into consideration for team sports too:
- NFL, never bet on games where it's a divisional matchup. The fucking 0-16 Lions made the near unbeatable looking Packers fight for wins that season

- NBA, back to back away games? DON'T FUCKING TOUCH the team on the back to back. I bet you look at the record setting Warriors and Bulls teams the losses they experienced were on back to back road games

- NHL, similar to NFL, avoid rivalry games
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The market is sharp enough that it has already priced in ANY observation you might make, provided that the observation is true. It's a nearly perfect goddamn crucible, real talk.
 
Btw @Trotsky I remember during the last PPV Jon Anik had to deliver this mandatory movie promo

"The law has limits, they don't. See Mark Wahlberg in the Netflix film Spenser Confidential"

That was literally the first and only time I have heard of the film and therefore everything I know about is contained in that sentence and yet holy shit I already hate it.
 
Fawlty said:
I think it should be done only for pure entertainment and then you don't have to worry about lobbing in some YOLOs. Sometimes it's nice to have something riding on a fight.

I dunno if you remember the "Plat Casino" threads, before we had vBookie on this site, but I used to set the odds before the bookmaker's odds came out. I thought it would be a great test of my natural handicapping abilities. I actually did better than I expected when it came to matching the opening lines, and I tended to miss them on the correct side (where the initial money in IRL betting came in), but it was really hard and really stressful to do. I determined from that experiment that there was no fucking chance in hell that I could do it for a living, and I could probably only break even or win a little against the market.
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I make two bets every year and only put like $50 on it.

1. Packers win the SB

2. Bruins win the Stanley Cup

I recoup what I lose in one paycheck and if I win it means I got to see at least one of my favorite teams win the big one.

I think if I lived in Vegas I’d be more inclined to place bets on boxing events.

Also because chances are I’d be a sparring partner for someone in a Vegas gym
 
Gregolian said:
I make two bets every year and only put like $50 on it.

1. Packers win the SB

2. Bruins win the Stanley Cup

I recoup what I lose in one paycheck and if I win it means I got to see at least one of my favorite teams win the big one.

I think if I lived in Vegas I’d be more inclined to place bets on boxing events.

Also because chances are I’d be a sparring partner for someone in a Vegas gym
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Mmm, that bruins cup loss is even sweeter now that I know you lost money on it.
 
Trotsky said:
Just got recommended a "National Survey on the Battle Against Socialism" from Hillsdale College.

These are literally the questions:

1. Socialism is incompatible with America’s Constitution and heritage of liberty. What are your chief concerns, if any, about socialism taking root in America? (Please check all that apply.) *
America cannot afford the steep costs of socialism.
Socialism undermines faith and religious liberty.
Socialism is the enemy of economic freedom and opportunity.
Socialism undermines responsibility and encourages dependence.
Socialism destroys prosperity and brings misery wherever it is tried.
Once imposed, socialism is almost impossible to undo.
I have no concerns about socialism.
Not Sure/No Opinion

2. For decades, too many American K-12 schools have failed to provide young Americans with a solid grounding in American civics — the study of American history, government, and economics. This has contributed to the attraction so many young people today feel for socialism. Do you think K-12 schools in your area should be doing more to teach young Americans about America’s great heritage of liberty? *
Yes
No
Not Sure/No Opinion

3. America’s colleges and universities are now hotbeds of progressive and “politically correct” ideology, including socialism, and are increasingly denying free speech rights to students and others who hold non-progressive viewpoints. Do you believe that colleges and universities should defend the free speech rights of students and others who oppose socialism and other aspects of progressive ideology? *
Yes
No
Not Sure/Don't Know

4. The news media is increasingly biased towards Left-wing politicians, including those who are self-proclaimed socialists, and increasingly aligned against policymakers who challenge ideas like the “Green New Deal” that would dramatically expand government control of the economy. Do you consider the media biased in favor of progressivism, including socialist politicians and policies that tend toward socialism? *
Yes
No
Not Sure/No Opinion

5. Recent polling suggests that nearly half of younger Americans would “prefer living in a socialist country.” According to one analysis of these polls, “The word ‘socialism’ does not carry the same stigma it did in the past, now that it has been resurrected by celebrity politicians like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.” Do you believe lawmakers who encourage young people to embrace socialism are doing a disservice to the country? *
Yes
No
Not Sure/No Opinion

6. Hillsdale believes that citizens who have been taught American history, who understand the principles and meaning of the Constitution, and who are proud of our nation’s great heritage of liberty, will not fall prey to the fantasy of socialism. So that Americans nationwide will better understand the Constitution and see that socialism is incompatible with liberty, which of Hillsdale’s educational outreach programs would you like to see expanded? *
Free online courses on topics such as the Constitution and economics.
Scholarships for undergraduate students to attend Hillsdale.
The founding of Hillsdale-affiliated K-12 charter schools nationwide.
Delivering Free Pocket Constitutions to America’s K-12 students.

Seriously, is it possible to be a conservative, or to be relay the conservative message, without being a lying huckster?

Also, @Limbo Pete, do you agree that we need to reform our history curriculums to teach kids about our great history of liberty and the failures of socialism?
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Gaaaaahhhhh
 
Kafir-kun said:
Btw @Trotsky I remember during the last PPV Jon Anik had to deliver this mandatory movie promo

"The law has limits, they don't. See Mark Wahlberg in the Netflix film Spenser Confidential"

That was literally the first and only time I have heard of the film and therefore everything I know about is contained in that sentence and yet holy shit I already hate it.
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lol

It being Mark Wahlberg makes it funnier

Limbo Pete said:
Gaaaaahhhhh
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Pat Sajack (sp) is on the Board of Trustees for that shit college. Remember that the next time your parents are watching that fat-headed fuck on Wheel of Fortune.

EDIT: That is, granted that you live in your parents' basement and are therefore capable of being around them when they are watching television.
 
Trotsky said:
lol

It being Mark Wahlberg makes it funnier



Pat Sajack (sp) is on the Board of Trustees for that shit college. Remember that the next time your parents are watching that fat-headed fuck on Wheel of Fortune.

EDIT: That is, granted that you live in your parents' basement and are therefore capable of being around them when they are watching television.
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My mom and dad are old and even they don’t watch Wheel of Fortune.

they just have the Smithsonian Channel or TV Japan on all day
 
Gregolian said:
I make two bets every year and only put like $50 on it.

1. Packers win the SB

2. Bruins win the Stanley Cup

I recoup what I lose in one paycheck and if I win it means I got to see at least one of my favorite teams win the big one.

I think if I lived in Vegas I’d be more inclined to place bets on boxing events.

Also because chances are I’d be a sparring partner for someone in a Vegas gym
Click to expand...
I think my only serious football bet was Eagles/Under in the conference championship like 2009 lol. Nailed it, got the fuck out.
 
Do people still agree with closed primaries for voters? FL has like 31% registered independents, nearly a full 1/3 voters, and I can't vote for The Bern at all because "gotta be a registered Democrat only" so I'm powerless to stop the Biden sweep. Seems like a very, very outdated model. Feel like many more of the independents would go Bern, but that's just guess work. What is the reasoning behind this? Or does anyone still support it? Should be abolished like the Corona.


/Rant
 
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