Elections USA election polls

[PBAC]

In Europe when we have a poll it is usually a foregone conclusion that it is accurate. Typically the winner is already announced before counting starts. Party leaders are often celebrating before the tally comes in. By contrast US polls seem incredibly unreliable and on surface level smell like BS. I mean current polls show Trump/Biden in a dead even race 45/45 and 10% independent. No one is pretending it's not up in the air but poling like that looks about as false as a 99% vote for Kim Jong Un. I mean, how can anyone even pretend polling data that even is anything other than fake?

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin

View the results of 2024 election polls.

www.270towin.com

 

[filthybliss]

I am not holding my breath till it happens. If Trump loses, his cronies will go apeshit like last time.

 

[Fluffernutter]

Maybe its because in the US, we're more likely to screen our phone calls

 

[Kingz]

I do find it funny that since 2015 polls have largely understated support for Trump in particular

but now pollsters and democrats are telling themselves that Biden voters are actually the ones under sampled and that the types to vote for Biden are the ones that don’t respond to pollsters. When it’s ALWAYS been supporters of Trump that seemed difficult to poll accurately.

it is Trump that is the one that historically overperforms polling averages by several points. Especially on the state level. The irrelevant national polling is usually close to accurate but on the state level pollsters have been burned time and time by not getting a good percentage for Trump

There is zero reason to believe that has changed.

Trump was down by averages of 5-10 in states he either lost by less than a point or won on Election Day 2020.

Where are democrats getting this comfort blanket that the Trump Tax on polls no longer exists and his multi point lead in battle ground states isn’t itself an under representation of his actual lead?

I think many liberals who remember that polls are historically unkind to Trump to sometimes excessive degrees in both 2016 and 2020 see those numbers and think Trump could be up far more than polls suggest in some battlegrounds. Especially when you take Biden’s approval in those states into account.

Is it because democrats thought they would lose the mid terms big and didn’t?

even though all the polling showed there wouldn’t be a red wave unless republicans managed to win an astronomical amount of house and senate races polling in toss up territory. We know everything changes when Trump is on the ballot. Not comparable,

 

[Dr Curtis Love]

Well, here in America, polls are accurate when your team is up. When the other side is up in the polls, then polls don't mean anything and it's too early to tell.

 

[nostradumbass]

The polling average doesn't show a 45/45 dead even, it has Trump with a lead nationally, which is disastrous for Biden because the polling has always underestimated Trump by like 4-6 points. It's even worse for Biden when you consider that the national numbers are severely skewed by the 3 worst managed states in the country going 20-30 points democrat automatically.

A close race nationally is a pretty serious blowout for Trump electorally when you adjust for the automatic 8 millionish vote lead Biden gets just from NY, CA, and IL. It suggests that among the other 47 states, Trump would be ahead by about 10 million votes if the election happened today.

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin

View the results of 2024 election polls.

www.270towin.com

 

[HereticBD]

Well, here in America, polls are accurate when your team is up. When the other side is up in the polls, then polls don't mean anything and it's too early to tell.

While that is true for the people, they do tend to be fairly accurate most of the time. Just sayin', don't dismiss them because your guy is losing. That's what Trumper's did in 2020. How'd that work out? If you're a democrat and you all of a sudden find yourself questioning polls because they don't say what you want them to, you're in 2020 Trumpville, and you should probably see that it's not the best position to be in.

 

[PBAC]

The polling average doesn't show a 45/45 dead even, it has Trump with a lead nationally, which is disastrous for Biden because the polling has always underestimated Trump by like 4-6 points. It's even worse for Biden when you consider that the national numbers are severely skewed by the 3 worst managed states in the country going 20-30 points democrat automatically.

A close race nationally is a pretty serious blowout for Trump electorally when you adjust for the automatic 8 millionish vote lead Biden gets just from NY, CA, and IL. It suggests that among the other 47 states, Trump would be ahead by about 10 million votes if the election happened today.

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin

View the results of 2024 election polls.

www.270towin.com

then what is the first one?

 

[rearnakedchoke]

The US citizens cucking themselves by pushing these two guys as their candidates.

 

[CantCucktheTuck]

Typically the winner is already announced before counting starts.

just like Biden

 

[PBAC]

just like Biden

was Biden the guy who lost fairly then tried to throw a coup to over turn the vote started an investigation that turned up nothing and then got himself on a child molesters guest list? Or was that the other guy?

 

[KOPPE]

VOTE BLUE to Save America

 

[LeonardoBjj]

Well, here in America, polls are accurate when your team is up. When the other side is up in the polls, then polls don't mean anything and it's too early to tell.

- Polls in Brazil are always wrong also!

 

[Osculater]

Hail Dark Brandon to steal the election, again

 

[evansusmc2]

22% Independent voting in Kansas ???? I can tell you right now that is bullshit.